Goldman Sachs downgrades Ryanair as fare weakness, costs weigh

Published 08/09/2025, 08:56

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs downgraded Ryanair Holdings Plc (LON:0RYA) to “neutral” from “buy,” citing weaker summer fare trends, higher sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) costs, and a more cautious view on demand growth, in a note dated Monday. 

The brokerage lowered its 12-month price target to €27.50 from €29.50, representing a 14.4% upside from the current share price of €24.04.

The analysts said the catalysts that had supported their earlier bullish view, earnings upgrades and the lifting of ownership restrictions, had now largely materialized. 

“As these catalysts have largely played out we now have a less differentiated/slightly more cautious earnings view relative to (Bloomberg/Visible Alpha Consensus Data) consensus (more below), while the valuation has normalized from low levels,” Goldman Sachs said.

The brokerage forecasts Ryanair’s September quarter net profit at €1.63 billion, short of the consensus estimate of about €1.7 billion.

For fiscal 2026, profit is expected at €2.2 billion, broadly in line with consensus. However, fiscal 2027 estimates were reduced by 4% to €2.3 billion, “3-4% below consensus,” reflecting softer fares and a slightly weaker supply-demand outlook.

Goldman Sachs also pointed to slowing fare momentum. “Our July fare data (albeit a small sample) has come in weaker,” the analysts said, noting a similar pattern for August. Rising SAF costs added further pressure to its forecasts.

While Ryanair has consistently benefitted from tight capacity across Europe, the analysts warned that balance is shifting. 

“Our bottom-up fleet model for Europe points to 3-4% capacity growth next year, which marks an acceleration vs. recent history (2019-25 CAGR 1%) that we believe could be modestly ahead of demand,” the brokerage said.

Despite the downgrade, the analysts maintained a constructive long-term view. They noted that Ryanair will likely continue to take market share on its cost advantage, projecting passenger growth of around 20% by 2030 and 40% by 2033. 

“At our 12m price target, the shares would trade on c.13x PE on a 12m forward basis, broadly in line with historical average,” the brokerage said, adding that consistent earnings growth and renewed capital returns could still drive a re-rating in the future.

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