HelloFresh downgraded by J.P. Morgan as shares drop over 7% on tariff exposure

Published 11/04/2025, 10:24
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Shares of HelloFresh (ETR:HFGG) fell more than 7% after J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock to “neutral,” warning that the company’s heavy exposure to the U.S. market leaves it vulnerable as tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the macroeconomic outlook.

The meal-kit delivery company generates about 60% of its revenue from the United States, a level of exposure that J.P. Morgan analysts say it could hinder performance despite an otherwise attractive valuation. 

The brokerage said its adjusted EBITDA projections for HelloFresh are in line with consensus for 2025 but fall 6% below expectations for 2026.

The downgrade comes as the European Internet sector weathers ongoing volatility tied to global trade tensions. 

While the broader sector has declined 6% since early April, outperforming the MSCI Europe’s 12% drop, J.P. Morgan trimmed earnings estimates across the space by an average of 3%, citing growing macroeconomic pressure and fluid tariff policy developments.

Greg Fuzesi, the bank’s European macro strategist, recently revised eurozone GDP forecasts to 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, citing lingering trade headwinds. 

Although the U.S. government has temporarily suspended new tariffs on most countries (excluding China), and the EU has paused retaliatory measures on steel and aluminum, the analysts emphasized that these moves are temporary and contingent on the outcome of sensitive negotiations.

Against this backdrop, J.P. Morgan continues to back three high-conviction names in the sector: Auto1, Scout24, and Ocado (LON:OCDO). 

Ocado has been rated “overweight” by analysts due to its undervalued fulfillment center portfolio, Scout24's pricing power and low agent revenue base, and Auto1's gains in gross profit per unit from its ancillary services.

The firm remains cautious on Rightmove (OTC:RTMVY), maintaining an Underweight rating due to anticipated margin pressure, which they say is at odds with the stock’s recent 3% rise.

J.P. Morgan also noted that merger activity may pick up, particularly in online classifieds and food delivery, as asset prices fall and buyers seek consolidation opportunities. 

Recent moves, such as Prosus’s acquisition of Just Eat, suggest the space is already beginning to attract more transactional interest.

While the sector remains relatively shielded from global trade shocks due to its local business models, the analysts warn that high U.S. exposure—such as that seen with HelloFresh—adds downside risk in a market where policy direction remains unpredictable.

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