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Investing.com -- HSBC remains wary of equity markets despite a rebound in risk assets over the past two weeks, cautioning that the rally may not be supported by fundamentals.
In a note to clients, HSBC highlighted that the S&P 500 posted nine consecutive daily gains through to Friday last week, a rare streak matched only twice in the last 30 years.
“Risk assets have staged a remarkable turnaround,” the bank wrote, adding that U.S. high-yield credit spreads have tightened by 100 basis points since early April.
However, HSBC said it had “underestimated” the role of investor sentiment and positioning in driving the rally.
While its aggregate sentiment and positioning indicator is still flashing a buy signal, the firm noted that “quite a few indicators have now moved closer to neutral territory.”
Notably, positioning among systematic strategies such as volatility-targeting and risk parity is said to remain light, which HSBC says could leave room for further short-term gains if positive news emerges, particularly on tariffs.
Still, HSBC remains unconvinced by the rally. “Sentiment and positioning is one thing,” the analysts wrote, “but the fundamental backdrop remains pretty dire.”
They add that the recent strength in economic data is likely due to frontloading, and “forward-looking indications are for hard data to feel the pain soon, perhaps already in the next month or two.”
HSBC also said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer support at its upcoming policy meeting.
“The Fed is more likely to display a wait-and-see mode… which might pour cold water on dovish ‘Fed put’ hopes,” it said.
As a result, HSBC remains tactically cautious on equities despite improving sentiment.