Eos Energy stock falls after Fuzzy Panda issues short report
Investing.com -- Instacart parent Maplebear was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG, with the broker citing intensifying competitive pressure from larger players in grocery delivery.
Shares in the delivery firm slipped 2.5% in premarket trading Tuesday.
Analyst Jake Fuller said a recent string of deals signed by Amazon, DoorDash, and Uber raises questions about the sustainability of the company’s growth trajectory.
“In the span of just two weeks, grocers accounting for an estimated 25%+ of CART’s gross order value (GOV) have signed partnerships with AMZN, DASH or UBER,” Fuller wrote. “If we add in the UBER-Costco partnership from last year, the tally rises to ~40%."
The analyst said the breadth of encroachment makes it much harder to underwrite sustained double-digit growth and that the market will likely default to mid-single-digit expectations.
He pointed to several key developments since August, including Amazon’s launch of perishable grocery delivery in 1,000 cities with plans to reach 2,300 by year-end; its new partnership with Winn-Dixie; Uber’s agreement with Aldi covering its 2,500 stores; and DoorDash’s expanded deal with Kroger to include the chain’s full assortment.
There had been some thought that Amazon’s expansion could push traditional grocers toward Instacart, similar to its Whole Foods acquisition, but the recent announcements suggest that isn’t the case.
While Fuller reiterated a Buy rating on Instacart shares earlier this month, the analyst now believes that the cumulative impact of these announcements “simply tips the balance for us with too many items on the negative side of the ledger at this point.”
He withdrew its $55 price target, estimating fair value between $30 and $50 using a three-year scenario analysis based on 5–8% gross order value growth, 29–32% EBITDA margins in 2027, and an 8–12x multiple discounted back.
Fuller said that “to justify a Buy rating from the current price would require a mid-$40s price and multiple on a now more uncertain ’26 EBITDA of ~10x.”
A double-digit multiple looks unlikely given competitive pressures, with the Street expected to “default to a mid-single-digit (MSD) GOV growth rate vs. the high-single-digit (HSD) to low-double-digit (LDD) consensus that prevailed in early-August," he said.