Is a bear case emerging for Chipotle stock? Bernstein takes a look

Investing.com -- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) has faced mounting scrutiny following a sharp decline in its share price, raising questions among investors about the strength of its long-term growth trajectory. 

The stock is down about 20% from its recent peak, after posting its first negative same-store sales growth (SSSG) quarter since the food safety crisis a decade ago, according to a research note from analysts at Bernstein in a note dated Friday.

Bernstein analysts outline three core arguments fueling the emerging bear case. The first centers on market share concerns, with investors worried that Chipotle may lose ground to quick-service restaurant chains amid rising promotional activity. 

However, Bernstein counters that Chipotle has preserved pricing discipline. Despite industry-wide discounting, Chipotle maintains price points that are roughly 15%–20% below those of other fast-casual options, which Bernstein believes strengthens its value proposition to consumers.

The second concern is the perceived lack of near-term catalysts in the face of broader macroeconomic pressure. 

The analysts acknowledge that the first quarter of 2025 marked a low point, but argue that a recovery could begin as early as the second quarter. 

Contributing factors include increased summer marketing spending, set to rise by 30% year-over-year, ongoing improvements in order throughput, and a new limited-time offer aimed at reigniting consumer interest.

The third pillar of the bear case suggests Chipotle is entering a slower growth phase and should therefore be valued more conservatively. 

The company currently trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 45.6x on 2024 earnings, with that figure projected to fall to 33.7x by 2026. 

While bears argue this de-rating reflects a structurally lower growth profile, Bernstein disagrees. 

The analysts maintain that Chipotle’s long-term growth algorithm remains intact, citing mid-single-digit SSSG, 8%–10% annual unit growth potential, and resilient restaurant-level margins. 

They emphasize that only half of Chipotle’s stores have hit throughput targets, leaving room for operational improvement.

Notably, Chipotle’s restaurant-level margins remain the highest in the industry at 26.8%, ahead of Taco Bell’s 24.4% and McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) 14.8%. 

Bernstein attributes this resilience to efficient cost management and strong incremental margins, which are projected to be around 40%.

Despite the recent negative sentiment, Bernstein raised its price target on the stock from $60 to $65, implying a 28% upside from the May 22 close at $50.78. The valuation is based on a forward P/E of 43x on projected 2026 EPS of $1.50.

While the brokerage acknowledges near-term volatility driven by macro uncertainty and weaker Q1 performance, Bernstein argues that these are not signs of long-term structural decline. 

Instead, the analysts believe the market may be underestimating Chipotle’s capacity for a near-term sales rebound and sustained margin strength.