Jefferies cuts Dollar Tree rating, sees ’mounting execution risk’

Published 07/10/2025, 13:22
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Jefferies downgraded Dollar Tree to Underperform from Hold, warning that inflation, pricing complexity, and intensifying competition have “turned a simple business model into a complex one.” 

The firm cut its price target to $70 and said it sees potential downside to 2026 earnings per share of $5, compared with Wall Street’s consensus of $6.44.

“A business that was once simple now faces structural change and operational complexity that are difficult to manage,” Jefferies said in a note on Tuesday. “Macro headwinds, rising competition, and margin pressure add further risk.”

Jefferies said the company’s recent move from $1 to multi-tier pricing, now as high as $7, has created “confusion” among shoppers and “complexity for stores.” 

The brokerage cited in-store checks that found “red-dot stickers over old price tags, missing signage, and shopper confusion,” noting that August’s buy rate slowed to 1.2% year-over-year, down from 3.4% in July.

On pricing, Jefferies said its comparison of 101 items found Walmart’s equivalent basket was about 7% cheaper than Dollar Tree’s. 

The firm also highlighted competitive proximity, noting that “87% of Dollar Tree stores have a Walmart within five miles and 83% have a Dollar General.”

Jefferies warned that gross margin gains seen in the second quarter were temporary, reflecting “tariff timing benefits that reverse in Q3,” while ongoing cost pressures, higher shrink, and labor inflation make margin recovery “unlikely.”

"Pricing analyses, competitive overlap, and channel check observations reinforce mounting execution risk and margin pressure," said Jefferies. “As we head into the upcoming Investor Day, risk/reward appears unfavorable.”

 

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