Jefferies double-upgrades Geberit to Buy on improving European sentiment; stock up

Published 14/05/2025, 11:02
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Jefferies has double-upgraded Geberit (SIX:GEBN) stock to Buy from Underperform, citing improving European sentiment and the Swiss firm’s “superior fundamentals.”

The company’s shares rose nearly 2% in European trading Wednesday. 

The move, which marks Jefferies’ “most anti-consensus call” in the sector, comes as the bank sees signs that investor perception may lag improving macro indicators across Germany and the broader region.

“With construction data and corporate commentary increasingly suggesting the worst may be over in Germany and more broadly Europe, sentiment towards Geberit still has scope to meaningfully improve to reflect this,” the analysts led by Priyal Woolf said.

Geberit, which generates roughly 90% of its revenue in Europe and about 30% in Germany, stands to benefit from a potential rebound in construction volumes.

Jefferies has revised its forecasts, pushing estimated EBITDA growth up by low teens per annum. The broker also believes its projections are low single-digits above consensus when adjusted for currency effects, driven by stronger organic growth assumptions in key markets.

The price target has been lifted to CHF 710 from CHF 374, implying a 23% upside. The upgrade reflects both improved earnings estimates and a reduced weighted average cost of capital, now at 6% from 7%, “to reflect lower risk of its high European exposure.”

Valuation remains elevated at 28.7x 2026 earnings, but Jefferies argues the premium is justified given Geberit’s “superior financial profile” and “sector-leading margin and return.”

“With this superior financial profile expected to persist, we see strong underpin for the multiple,” analysts wrote.

Analysts expect EBITDA margins to remain within the 28–30% range, supported by stable pricing power and flat input costs.

“While Geberit’s pricing power has come under scrutiny in recent years, our assessment of historical margin bridges and company-provided raw material trends suggests robust pricing power, giving comfort there is limited margin downside risk in an uncertain cost outlook,” analysts wrote.

Jefferies highlighted that the stock still carries the highest proportion of negative ratings in the sector, suggesting scope for a sharp rerating if momentum in European and especially German construction persists.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.