Jefferies upgrades UBS to “buy” on capital clarity, earnings momentum

Published 03/06/2025, 11:40
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Jefferies has upgraded UBS Group (SIX:UBSG) to "buy" from "hold," citing improved clarity on capital requirements and expectations of stronger financial performance. 

The brokerage set a new price target of CHF37, up from CHF22, reflecting a 41% upside from the previous close at CHF26.19.

Analysts at Jefferies said the stock offers an adequate margin of safety, particularly given the approximately $50 billion in relative market value UBS has lost since the Swiss Federal Council’s capital proposals last year. 

The bank’s shares have underperformed due to uncertainty around the capital treatment of foreign subsidiaries, but Jefferies sees a potential “turning point” when preliminary regulatory clarity is expected on June 6.

Moreover, UBS’s earnings outlook has also improved, according to the note. As the bank continues to wind down its Non-Core business, analysts noted an acceleration in performance. 

Jefferies expects risk-weighted assets in the Non-Core division to fall to 5% of group assets by the end of 2025, one year earlier than planned, and to 2% by the end of 2026.

Global Wealth Management is expected to be a major driver of UBS’s earnings growth, contributing 46% of the group’s pre-tax earnings growth from 2024 to 2027. 

Jefferies estimates the division’s pre-tax return on equity will increase from 12% in 2024 to 23% by 2027, helped by operational improvements in the U.S. business and enhanced advisor compensation models aimed at driving net new money and client growth.

The Personal and Corporate Banking unit, the bank’s second-largest contributor, is also expected to show an earnings inflection starting in the second quarter of 2025.

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