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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has initiated coverage on Endeavour Mining Plc with an “overweight” rating and a December 2027 price target of £50 per share, representing about 63% upside from its October 22 closing price of 3,050p.
The brokerage said Endeavour “benefits from a low-cost asset base of ~1.2Moz gold output across Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, & Burkina Faso, which Management expect to grow ~25% to ~1.5Moz pa by 2030.”
J.P. Morgan forecasts revenue to rise from $4.17 billion in 2025 to $5.58 billion in 2027, with EBITDA increasing from $2.54 billion to $3.84 billion in the same period. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to climb from $3.66 in 2025 to $7.32 in 2027.
“Despite higher capex over 2026-28E, we still forecast EDV offering 19%/16% FCF yield over 2026/27E,” the brokerage said. Endeavour’s free cash flow yield, it added, would rank “at the top end among gold peers.”
The brokerage’s financial model projects free cash flow of $1.13 billion in 2025, $1.85 billion in 2026 and $1.59 billion in 2027.
J.P. Morgan noted that Endeavour “currently trades on 3.0x/2.6x 2026/27E EV/EBITDA, relatively below its EMEA peers, and a discount to its mid-cycle average 1-yr forward multiple of 4.5x.”
The analysts said this valuation gap “indicates this is arguably priced in” when accounting for geopolitical risks.
The brokerage flagged that Endeavour’s growth will be driven primarily by the Assafou project in Côte d’Ivoire, “currently completing a Definitive Feasibility Study and set to commence construction in late 2026.” Management guides for “first output by H2’28 with annual output of ~330koz.”
J.P. Morgan expects Endeavour to generate “ROCE to exceed 50% in 2026E” and forecasted a net cash position of about $1.2 billion by year-end 2026, equal to more than 10% of its market capitalization.
The company’s balance sheet is projected to strengthen, with net debt moving from $378 million in 2024 to $(1.20) billion in 2026.
The analysts also said Endeavour is entering “its cash generation and shareholder returns phase,” forecasting dividend yields of 7% and 8% for 2026 and 2027.
The company has guided for a “$225 million minimum” dividend for 2025 and has already conducted “a $69 million share buyback and announced a $38 million supplemental dividend.”
While noting the company’s strong fundamentals, J.P. Morgan cautioned that “higher geopolitical risks vs peers” remain a key differentiator.
Côte d’Ivoire’s proposed changes to its mining code, which include “higher royalties & higher free carry terms,” and Burkina Faso’s efforts to expand state control over mining assets have raised investor concerns.
Even so, the analysts wrote, “EDV’s ~40% EV/EBITDA discount vs peers indicates this is arguably priced in.”
J.P. Morgan added that “increased cash returns could be a positive flashpoint over the next 12-18 months,” reinforcing the Overweight stance on Endeavour Mining.