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Investing.com -- JP Morgan upgraded shares of fintech lender Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) to Overweight, saying improving consumer credit trends and potential interest rate cuts could lift demand for unsecured personal loans in the coming year.
The bank also downgraded CompoSecure and Riskified (NYSE:RSKD) to Underweight, and moved Kaspi to Neutral as part of a wider sector reset.
Analysts said Upstart offers the best upside among digital lenders, despite shares falling about 20% this year.
They cited strong loan buyer appetite and room for further loan growth and margins, noting that consensus estimates for the company’s 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings have risen sharply.
JP Morgan set a December 2026 price target of $88, about 35% above current levels.
By contrast, the firm said CompoSecure shares looked fully valued after a recent rebound. While the company posted better margins in the second quarter, growth has been uneven and full-year forecasts remain back loaded. JP Morgan said expectations for more acquisitions and margin gains may already be priced in.
Riskified was also cut to Underweight after losing a large client last year and trailing broader e-commerce growth.
JP Morgan said it is increasingly doubtful the firm can reach its 2026 profit margin targets without a sharp acceleration in volume growth.
The analysts said Kaspi’s recent rally leaves less room for upside, given a challenging macro backdrop in Kazakhstan, even though they still like the company’s position in the market.
JP Morgan said overall credit conditions look stable for fintech firms heading into the second half of 2025, helped by steady employment and possible rate cuts, but it remains selective on individual names.