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Investing.com -- JPMorgan reiterated Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as its “Best Idea” following a deep dive into its Prime subscription business, which they now estimate delivers a value of approximately $1,430 per year to members—roughly 10 times the $139 annual cost in the U.S.
The bank believes this growing value proposition supports a price increase in 2026, consistent with Amazon’s historical cadence of raising fees every four years.
“We estimate a $20 U.S. Prime price increase could drive ~$3B incremental annualized Net Sales, with further upside from international price raises,” JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth said in a Wednesday report.
The analyst does not anticipate meaningful churn or impact on gross additions from such a move, citing the stability seen during the last increase in 2022.
Anmuth projects Prime membership will reach roughly 350 million globally in 2025, up from an estimated 322 million in 2024. This includes about 131 million users in the U.S. and 216 million internationally.
While U.S. growth is slowing, international markets are expected to add more members due to relatively low penetration levels. According to the bank, Prime is only 20–34% penetrated across 27 international markets, suggesting significant room for expansion.
“We estimate that increasing Prime’s penetration in existing international markets (ex-China) from ~34% to ~45% would imply ~65M new Prime Members,” Anmuth continued.
“We believe there are many more markets Prime could enter given Amazon Business is serving 6M+ active customers,” and generates more than $35 billion in annualized gross sales, along with 200 million global Prime Video monthly active users, 250 million Fire TV devices sold, and 600 million Alexa-enabled devices.
Furthermore, Amazon’s logistics investments and growing service portfolio have strengthened the value proposition, with the company’s regionalized logistics network playing a key role.
The company delivered more than 9 billion Same-Day or Next-Day units in 2024, with a new record set in the first quarter of 2025. JPMorgan believes these faster delivery speeds are driving greater purchase frequency and stronger customer engagement.
U.S. Prime members placed an average of around 100 orders in 2024 and saved over $500 on delivery fees. Additions such as Grubhub+, Buy with Prime, expanded grocery services, and live sports rights on Prime Video continue to increase member engagement and retention.
“Prime delivers unparalleled scale & features that would be very difficult for any company to replicate,” Anmuth said.