KeyBanc upgrades Duolingo saying engagement concerns are overstated

Published 18/08/2025, 16:56

Investing.com -- KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) to overweight from sector weight, saying recent underperformance in the language-learning app’s shares overlooks a rebound in user engagement. The firm set a $460 price target, implying a 38x multiple on 2027 earnings.

Duolingo’s stock has lagged the Nasdaq this year amid investor worries that daily user growth is slowing and that AI-powered language tools could shrink demand for paid lessons.

But KeyBanc argues the company has several drivers that could reaccelerate growth, including its upcoming “Energy” feature, new product announcements at Duocon in September, and a return to more viral marketing tactics.

The Energy rollout, which replaces the old “Hearts” system, is already boosting daily active users and time spent on the app in initial tests. KeyBanc says the feature could become a major driver of engagement and conversions, similar to its learning path overhaul in 2022.

The firm also sees room for price optimization, something Duolingo has only tested in limited markets as a lever to lift both revenue and margins over the next two years.

KeyBanc raised its 2026 and 2027 bookings and EBITDA forecasts by 4% to 7%, arguing that AI innovations are more likely to enhance monetization rather than cap demand. The firm now expects Duolingo to deliver a three-year EBITDA compound annual growth rate of about 44%.

Shares remain off their highs, but KeyBanc says Duolingo’s product pipeline and brand strength position it to resume strong audience growth, even after a temporary slowdown.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.