Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares tumble after conservatorship comments
On Thursday, S&P Global Ratings adjusted its outlook on Kirby Corp (NYSE:KEX). to positive from stable, while affirming the company’s ’BBB’ issuer credit rating. The revision reflects Kirby’s strong credit metrics, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt nearing 70% and leverage below mid-1x in 2024. These robust figures are expected to be sustained throughout the forecast period.
Kirby’s favorable supply and demand dynamics in its marine transportation segment have been key to its financial performance. The company’s 2024 results exceeded previous expectations, with a nearly 70% FFO to debt for the full year and a 6% growth in consolidated revenues. This was propelled by a significant 11% increase in marine transportation revenue, despite a slight decline in distribution and services. The EBITDA margins adjusted by S&P Global Ratings improved by approximately 370 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to a 500 basis point improvement in operating margins within marine transportation.
The industry’s barge supply remains tight due to limited new construction, high labor and equipment costs, and the retirement of older barges. Additionally, a higher proportion of barges undergoing maintenance has exacerbated the supply constraints. High barge utilization and steady rate increases in both inland and coastal markets are anticipated to continue, leading to high-single digit revenue growth in marine transportation and further margin enhancements.
Conversely, the distribution and services segment has shown volatility, with weaknesses in traditional oil and gas and on-highway service and repair, as well as supply chain constraints. However, strengths in power generation and electric fracturing have somewhat offset these challenges. Revenue growth of about 4% is projected for Kirby in 2025, with EBITDA margins around 24%, FFO to debt approximately 70%, and leverage below mid-1x.
Kirby’s strategic acquisitions and shareholder returns are expected to persist. In 2024, the company invested around $80 million in inland barge acquisitions and prepaid $105 million of its term loan. The company’s capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease this year, representing about 9% of revenues. Share repurchases also declined to 43% of free cash flow from 85% in 2023.
While Kirby’s operations are not directly affected by tariffs due to its domestic focus, macroeconomic shocks could impact demand for the products it transports and customer industries in the distribution and services segment. Despite the current positive trajectory, the company’s business is considered highly cyclical with exposure to volatile end markets. However, the positive outlook is based on the expectation that Kirby will continue benefiting from favorable industry conditions, maintaining FFO to debt above 45% and debt to EBITDA in the low-1x range over the next two years.
S&P Global Ratings might revise the outlook back to stable if Kirby’s debt to EBITDA rises above 1.5x or its FFO to debt drops below 45%, potentially due to market weaknesses or increased debt issuances for acquisitions or shareholder returns. Conversely, the ratings could be raised if Kirby sustains strong credit metrics, with debt to EBITDA comfortably below 2x and FFO to debt above 45% through potential industrial challenges and competitive pressures.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.