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Investing.com -- K+S AG (ETR:SDFGn) shares fell 4% on Wednesday after Berenberg downgraded the stock to “sell” and cut its price target to €11 from €17 a share, warning that the upcycle in agricultural commodities and potash prices has ended.
The brokerage said weaker crop prices, new supply and high production costs in Germany will pressure the company’s earnings outlook.
K+S’s share price closed at €12.39 on Xetra on Aug. 19, valuing the company at €2.2 billion.
The downgrade follows a string of earlier “buy” recommendations this year, but Berenberg said there is no plausible case to keep that stance as conditions turn against the sector.
The analysts pointed to record U.S. corn acreage of 95 million, which could initially support fertilizer demand but risks lowering corn prices and farmer profitability, a key driver of potash use.
Brazilian granular potash prices have already fallen to $355 per tonne from a $1,200 peak in 2022, and Berenberg warned they could drop further given cost benchmarks at BHP’s Jansen mine of $105-120 per tonne.
Supply expansion also looms large. The Jansen project, despite a six-month delay and higher costs, is still expected to bring more than 4 million tonnes of new potash capacity in its first phase, with potential doubling later. Berenberg said this will weigh heavily on market prices from 2027.
The bank cut its earnings forecasts, estimating 2026 EBITDA of €624 million and 2027 EBITDA of €563 million, around 7% and 20% below Bloomberg consensus.
Recurring earnings per share are projected to fall from €0.32 in 2025 to €0.09 in 2027. Berenberg said K+S’s high-cost German potash production leaves it more exposed in a weaker pricing environment.
The downgrade underscores the sector’s vulnerability as the post-pandemic boom in agricultural markets fades and fresh capacity comes online.