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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has downgraded the issuer credit rating of U.S. specialty pool supply retailer, Leslie’s Poolmart Inc., from ’B’ to ’B-’ due to weaker than expected business prospects for fiscal 2025, ending September 2025. The downgrade reflects a sustained deterioration in Leslie’s credit measures due to anticipated operating challenges.
Consumer spending on pool-related merchandise remains weak, affecting Leslie’s transformation efforts. S&P Global Ratings now projects that the company’s adjusted leverage will remain in the mid-5x area, with reported leverage of about 8x, through fiscal 2025. The rating agency has also lowered its issue-level rating on Leslie’s $757 million senior secured term loan due 2028 from ’B’ to ’B-’, while the ’4’ recovery rating remains unchanged.
The negative outlook reflects increased risks to the base case surrounding the execution of Leslie’s strategic initiatives in a challenging macroeconomic environment and highly competitive landscape. The downgrade was announced on May 14, 2025, and it takes into account the weaker performance expected in fiscal 2025 due to muted consumer demand and a difficult macroeconomic environment.
Leslie’s second quarter, ending March 29, 2025, fell short of expectations in terms of revenue and EBITDA, as adverse weather trends affected store traffic. This underperformance adds to previous challenges, including depressed demand leading to significant performance volatility during key pool selling seasons in fiscal 2023 and 2024.
S&P Global Ratings forecasts flat sales and a slight compression in profitability over the next 12 months. Despite two years of substantial sales declines, demand trends are expected to stabilize due to Leslie’s better in-stock rates on key items. However, the company operates in the highly competitive and fragmented aftermarket pool and spa care industry, with a higher price point than home improvement and mass-market and club retailers. Tariff-related inflationary pressures are expected to continue to drive down consumer discretionary spending over the next 12 months.
Adjusted EBITDA margins are forecasted to remain around 13.5%-14% in fiscals 2025 and 2026, after declining 200 basis points to 13.7% in fiscal 2024. The company estimates its total tariff exposure to be $10 million to $12 million in product costs. However, it is expected to mitigate most tariff costs through pricing actions and broad cost control efforts.
Leslie’s is expected to generate $40 million to $50 million of reported free operating cash flow (FOCF) in fiscal 2025, normalizing to roughly $30 million annually thereafter. Despite ongoing profitability pressures, the forecast incorporates working capital inflows given tight inventory management and improved payables terms.
As of the second quarter, Leslie’s had $17 million of cash on balance sheet and $137 million of availability under its $250 million asset-based lending (ABL) facility. The company plans to pause share repurchases and limit acquisitions in the near term while it dedicates excess cash to debt paydown and growth investments. The negative outlook reflects the risk that Leslie’s may be unable to improve its operating performance and pay down debt amid a difficult economic backdrop.
The rating could be further lowered if the company’s capital structure is viewed as unsustainable due to failure to improve operating margins and generate positive FOCF. However, the outlook could be revised back to stable if the company demonstrates an ability to stabilize the business and its market share position in an increasingly difficult and competitive environment.
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