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Investing.com - Macquarie analysts predict the U.S bond market is approaching a bottoming process by mid-September, according to a technical analysis report released Monday.
The investment firm identifies a 40-year cycle pattern that reached a significant trough in 2020-21, shifting the long-term trend to bullish, with the upside reaching the regression mean of 5.00 in 2023.
Price movements since 2023’s high have formed what Macquarie describes as a "broad congestion phase" with a major rectangle formation showing a higher-for-longer pattern, defined by support at 3.60-3.80 and resistance at 4.80-5.00.
The short-term trend has developed into a diamond pattern within the 4.10-4.60 range, which Macquarie notes makes market movement "very difficult to predict," though the firm expects a rally to the upper boundary if prices remain above 4.10.
Macquarie observes that current market behavior appears to mirror patterns seen in 2017, suggesting a bottoming process will likely occur by mid-September.
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