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Investing.com -- BMO Capital said in a note to clients on Friday that historical patterns suggest U.S. equities typically deliver positive returns in the year following the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts, though outcomes vary depending on the broader economic backdrop.
“According to our analysis, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in the 12 months following such rate cuts for eight of the ten cycles with an average gain of 10.4%,” the analysts wrote. They reviewed ten cycles since 1982, when the Fed began officially announcing policy actions.
However, performance was far from uniform. BMO noted that returns ranged from a loss of 23.9% to a gain of 32.1%, depending on whether rate cuts prolonged expansion or failed to offset a downturn.
“In cycles where rate cuts were able to prolong economic expansion and keep corporate earnings on an upward trend, stocks performed quite well,” the firm said. In contrast, when stimulus could not prevent recession, such as in 2001 and 2007, equities “recorded significant losses in the following year.”
Looking to the present, BMO argued that conditions resemble the more positive scenarios.
“Yes, labor markets have certainly cooled but jobs are still being added and leading job indicators remain well behaved when put into a historical context,” the analysts wrote. They also pointed to GDP running above trend and forecasts for “double-digit” S&P 500 earnings growth through 2026.
As a result, BMO suggested the focus on how deep or large the Fed’s cuts might be “somewhat misses the point.”
The analysts concluded: “So long as nothing breaks in the economy, U.S. stocks remain firmly within a bull market,” though they cautioned that gains could be “more muted relative to historical norms” given the strong rally already in place.