US stock futures flounder amid tech weakness, Fed caution
Investing.com -- Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock surged 10% Wednesday after Fubon Research analysts highlighted the company’s potential significant revenue opportunity from Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) AI chip initiatives.
According to Fubon Research, Microsoft has upgraded specifications for its Maia300 chip, which Marvell is developing, from 3nm with HBM3E to a more advanced 2nm with HBM4. While this has pushed the production timeline from the first quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter, analysts believe the project represents a substantial opportunity for Marvell.
The Maia300 chip is expected to begin production with 300,000-400,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2026, ramping up to 1.2-1.5 million units in 2027. With an estimated average selling price of $8,000 per chip, Fubon projects potential revenue of $2.4 billion in 2026 and $10-12 billion in 2027 from this project alone.
Analysts noted that Microsoft appears to be placing "higher expectations on Maia300 by MRVL, rather than Maia200 which is its own solution." This shift comes as Microsoft reportedly faces challenges with its internal chip design capabilities, with Fubon indicating the tech giant is likely to "rely more on MRVL for the current generations."
The research also highlighted that Microsoft has increased the planned volume for its Maia200 chip from 40,000-60,000 units to 150,000-200,000 units in 2026, compensating for the delayed Maia300 rollout.
Fubon’s report suggests Microsoft may be more generous in pricing than Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services, with Maia300’s $8,000 ASP substantially higher than AWS Trainium 2’s $1,500, despite both projects having similar turnkey margins of 55-60%.