MS downgrades BILL Holdings on weak small business spending, macro uncertainty

Published 11/06/2025, 16:00
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley downgraded BILL Holdings Inc to Equal-weight from Overweight, saying the company’s growth outlook has become less certain as small business spending weakens and macroeconomic challenges persist.

Several of the factors behind its earlier bullish stance, such as improving spending by small- and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) and better monetization of payments, have failed to materialize.

“FY26 estimates looking too high,” Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said, and added that there are no clear positive catalysts in the near term to change the outlook.

Shares of BILL have been under pressure after the company reported a decline in payment volume per customer and reduced its full-year revenue guidance.

Management cited a slowdown in spending from SMBs in sectors like wholesale trade, payroll, and construction. That trend continued into April as business owners grew more cautious, the firm said.

While Morgan Stanley acknowledged the company’s efforts to launch new products — including an upgraded ACH payment option, and improve monetization, it said those moves are not enough to offset the current economic headwinds.

“BILL felt the macro impact most acutely at their recent earnings where management highlighted how the volatile macro has started to impact,” analysts wrote. Given its real-time payment exposure

BILL’s valuation remains modest at 2x sales and 10x free cash flow, but the lack of near-term drivers to revive growth likely keeps the stock rangebound.

Morgan Stanley cut its price target on the stock to $55 from $60 but said the longer-term opportunity remains intact.

The firm said it could become more positive if BILL shows signs of stronger product monetization or if small business spending rebounds.

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