Munster on Tesla earnings: Robotaxi expansion and affordable model in focus

Investing.com -- Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management has outlined five key areas investors should watch during Tesla’s upcoming June earnings call, with robotaxi expansion and the timing of a more affordable vehicle topping the list.

The investment narrative for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has shifted toward autonomy, according to Munster, who believes the company remains "best positioned in physical AI."

For the robotaxi service that launched in Austin mid-June, Munster suggests measuring progress by expansion rate rather than absolute fleet size. The service began with about 15 vehicles and has grown to approximately 35, with the geofenced zone doubling to cover 42 square miles. Elon Musk previously outlined plans for 1,000+ robotaxi vehicles in multiple cities within months, with San Francisco likely next by fall.

Munster indicates that having a couple hundred robotaxis operational by September would be viewed positively by investors, while fewer than 100 would disappoint.

The long-awaited affordable Tesla model is another critical focus area. While production was initially suggested to begin by mid-2025, Munster expects the timeline to shift to first half of 2026, with full ramp-up later that year. Musk has indicated a price point under $30,000, which would target the mass market segment dominated by VW, Toyota (NYSE:TM), and BYD (SZ:002594).

Delivery trends will be complicated by the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit at the end of September, affecting about 20% of global deliveries. This will likely pull forward demand into September at the expense of December and March quarters. While June deliveries were down 14% year-over-year, Munster expects September deliveries to be closer to flat rather than the Street’s expectation of a 6% decline.

Automotive gross margins excluding credits, which were about 12.5% in March, are expected by analysts to reach 13.6% in June. Pricing pressure, especially in China, has weighed on margins, while lower raw material costs and factory efficiencies have provided some relief.

Finally, "hardware anxiety" is emerging as a concern. Approximately 1.4 million U.S. Teslas run on the HW3 computer that won’t support full autonomy. About 1.3 million vehicles have HW4, which can run the current robotaxi version but may not support more advanced models. Musk has indicated the next-generation HW5 chip will likely launch in early 2026 and be 10 times more powerful than HW4.

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