National Grid H1 trading in-line with expectations, guidance reiterated

Investing.com -- National Grid Plc (LON:NG) on Thursday reported first-half fiscal 2026 trading in line with expectations, reaffirming guidance provided at the close of fiscal 2025.

The electricity and gas utility company’s pre-close statement indicates performance consistent with previously announced targets, with full-year EPS guidance at the lower end of a 6-8% growth range. 

Consensus estimates currently imply approximately 5% year-over-year growth, slightly below the company’s guidance, the note said.

Morgan Stanley in a note highlighted that consensus EPS of 76.9p remains below the lower end of the guided range of 77.7p. 

“We see consensus already reflecting a cautious ~1.35 FX assumption (vs company assumed 1.3 for the year),” the brokerage said.

The analysts said this gap between consensus and guidance is primarily a translation effect and could exert upward pressure on estimates if FX rates trend closer to the company’s assumption.

In the United Kingdom, electricity distribution and transmission are projected to be roughly evenly split between the first and second halves of the year. 

In the U.S. business, a typical second-half skew is expected, though to a lesser extent than last year due to fewer storms, Morgan Stanley said. The company’s ET-3 Final Determination is expected in early December.

Morgan Stanley said it does not anticipate revisions to full-year consensus EPS at this stage. “We would not expect any revisions to street estimates on average at this stage given consensus mean EPS already below bottom end of 6-8%/yr EPS growth range,” the analysts said.

The analysts added that any future adjustments would likely be driven by foreign exchange developments rather than operational performance.

Full-year guidance remains unchanged from the FY25 close in May.  Analysts also indicated that the bridge between consensus and company guidance is fully explained by translation impacts, “we see scope for potential upward pressure on consensus should FX trend closer to 1.3 and hence translation impact less than consensus currently reflecting. Note this is purely a translation impact.”