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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has upgraded NIQ and its subsidiaries to ’BB-’ from ’B+’ with a Stable outlook, citing solid revenue growth and successful execution of cost-saving initiatives in 2024.
The rating agency also upgraded the company’s senior secured debt to ’BB+’ from ’BB’ with a Recovery Rating of ’RR2’. NIQ Global Intelligence plc received a first-time ’BB-’ Issuer Default Rating as the new financial filer.
The upgrade follows NIQ’s recent initial public offering that raised approximately $1 billion, with proceeds primarily used for debt reduction. The company has already paid off its $563 million revolving credit facility balance and plans to reduce its term-loan debt by roughly $490 million.
Fitch expects NIQ to finish 2025 with leverage near or below 4.5x, which was previously identified as a positive sensitivity threshold. The company’s leverage has improved since the end of 2024, mainly due to voluntary debt reduction.
NIQ demonstrated strong operating performance in 2024 with organic growth of 6% and EBITDA margin expansion. Fitch anticipates the company will achieve EBITDA margins at or above 20% this year, though this remains below the roughly 40% average among broader data analytics and processing peers.
Free cash flow conversion is expected to improve in 2025 as NIQ reaches its margin targets, reduces capital intensity, and completes one-time integration and restructuring costs. Fitch projects free cash flow margins of 5% or greater in the next 12-18 months.
The business combination with GfK appears to be progressing positively, with many large customers renewing multiyear contracts. Fitch views this as confirmation that the combined company is moving toward market leadership in the retail measurement sector.
For 2025, Fitch’s key assumptions include revenue growth of approximately 4%, EBITDA margin expansion approaching 20%, slightly reduced capital intensity, and no acquisitions, dividends, or share repurchases.
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