Nvidia stock didn’t react well to the last earnings report. What’s the setup now?

Published 05/09/2025, 12:50
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Investing.com -- Nvidia shares stumbled after its latest earnings, but Wolfe Research says the move was not unexpected and sees a favourable path ahead.

“NVDA didn’t react well to the print,” the analysts wrote, adding that the pullback was “not too surprising” given the setup. 

Wolfe pointed to the stock trading near record highs, “buyside expectations already elevated,” and Nvidia’s “limited ability to drive more upside than normal due to the pre-shipments of GPUs before Blackwell rack production was ready, and the uncertainty regarding China.” 

Over the past two years, they noted, it has also been common for the stock to consolidate after big rallies.

Looking forward, Wolfe said, “the setup from here is very favorable into CY26.” 

Blackwell rack production now appears to be resolved, with output “at a production rate of 1K/week (about consistent with ~$40bn DC revenue for OctQ) and accelerating.” The ramp of the GB300 chip is also underway, “providing an ASP tailwind.”

Meanwhile, China could contribute “$2–5bn / qtr in revenue if and when they can ship,” with Wolfe observing that “the ball now appears to be in China’s court.”

Investor attention also centred on Nvidia’s claim that the total addressable market for AI infrastructure could reach $3–4 trillion annually by 2030. 

Wolfe confirmed this meant “$3–4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending by 2030 – and that’s an annual number, not a cumulative number.” That implies 40–45% annual growth, which Wolfe called “an extraordinary statement given the growth that’s already occurred.”

The firm cautioned that visibility that far out is limited, but concluded: “Management isn’t seeing any slowdown so far as they do have visibility.”

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