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Investing.com -- OpenAI’s latest commitments to Microsoft and Amazon have sharply increased its long term computing obligations without adding fresh capital, leaving the company facing a financing shortfall that HSBC says will surpass $200 billion by the end of the decade.
OpenAI has signed an additional $288 billion of cloud contracts in the past month. Which includes a $250 billion purchase agreement with Microsoft for computing capacity announced on October and a seven year $38 billion arrangement with Amazon disclosed on November.
HSBC said the expanded commitments reflect the cost of scaling large language models, but also raise questions about OpenAI’s ability to match spending with revenue growth.
HSBC estimates OpenAI now plans for $1.4 trillion of compute costs over the next eight years. Its updated model projects the company will pay a cumulative $792 billion on data centre rent between the second half of 2025 and 2030 and $1.4 trillion through 2033.
Against its revenue outlook, which HSBC lifted modestly to reflect more paid users and a larger share of digital advertising, the bank calculates a $207 billion funding gap by 2030.
The analysts said OpenAI’s ability to manage the shortfall will depend on how much flexibility it has to adjust its commitments and how effectively it can expand paid adoption.
Raising the share of paying users to 20% by 2030, from the 10% in HSBC’s base case, would add about $194 billion in revenue over 2026 to 2030. Other options include tighter cost controls, new equity infusions or debt financing.
HSBC acknowledged that the scale of spending has unsettled investors, given projected revenue of about $12.5 billion in 2025. But it argued that a long AI driven investment cycle remains intact as productivity gains spread through the economy.
OpenAI’s expansion sits at the centre of a broader push by model developers, infrastructure providers and chipmakers to capture demand for AI driven services. HSBC says Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD and Softbank as the most exposed partners to OpenAI’s performance.