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Investing.com -- Piper Sandler warned Thursday that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could see up to $9.8 billion in annual data center revenue impacted in a worst-case scenario tied to cuts in capital expenditures and continued weakness in China.
The firm performed a sensitivity analysis on Nvidia’s data center business to assess the potential downside if customer capex slows over the next year.
“Overall, in our worst case, ~6.45% of total DC revenue could be exposed to capex cuts across NVDA DC end markets,” Piper Sandler analysts wrote.
That scenario assumes sustained capex reductions across Nvidia’s customer base and no recovery in China.
“We believe this is a ‘worst case’ analysis if capex was cut and China business does not return,” the analysts said.
The estimated $9.8 billion revenue impact would flow through to a roughly $0.40 hit to earnings per share, according to Piper Sandler’s model.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating on Nvidia but modeled a wide range of outcomes: “At our worst case, using a 25x multiple (trough multiple), we arrive at a stock price of $76.25. At our best case, using a 25x multiple, we arrive at a stock price of $126.75.”
The analysts noted that their published model already excludes China revenues following Nvidia’s 8-K filing on April 15, meaning the potential revenue hit in their scenario does not double-count China exposure.
“Notably, our current published estimate does not include China revenues as we have already de-risked our model,” the firm said.