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Procore stock tumbles as analysts raise concerns, Q3 revenue guidance misses

Published 02/08/2024, 13:20
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Procore (PCOR) reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue, but its shares tumbled 23.3% after the company's third-quarter guidance fell short of analyst expectations and analysts raised concerns regarding the company signaling significant company-wide operating model changes.

The construction management software provider posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.39, surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $284 million, up 24% YoY and beating the consensus estimate of $275.26 million.

However, Procore's Q3 revenue guidance of $286-288 million fell below the analyst consensus of $291.7 million, triggering the sharp sell-off. For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue between $1.141-1.144 billion, in line with the $1.142 billion consensus.

"We delivered a record operating margin in Q2 as we continue to demonstrate improved operating leverage in the business," said Howard Fu, CFO of Procore. "Our financial model gives us the flexibility to accelerate our investment in go-to-market and capture the long-term growth opportunity ahead."

Despite the positive Q2 results, investors focused on the weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance, leading to the significant stock decline. The company's ability to meet its full-year targets will likely be closely watched in the coming quarters.

Reacting to the report, analysts at Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal-Weight from Overweight, lowering the price target to $54 from $78 per share based on the potential disruption from the G2M transition. "While we believe this is the right move for the business LT, PCOR will 1) transition to a GM model; 2) integrate channel selling along with direct sales; and 3) increase hiring in areas like product sales specialists, all of which can be disruptive thru FY25," wrote the bank.

Analysts at DA Davidson cut Procore to Neutral from Buy, lowering its target for the stock to $80 from $90. The firm said this was in response to the 2Q24 release which signaled significant company-wide operating model changes to come, with an unclear time horizon but an expectation for changes ongoing into 2025.

"Procore is deciding to capitalize upon a weaker end-market environment to invest for its next chapter, focusing on customer centricity," said the firm.
"Chains of command are being reorganized from a matrix to a general manager model. Given the uncertainty of the impacts to growth or the magnitude of the expense, we believe the risks have increased meaningfully."

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