Asia stocks climb tracking Wall St rally; Japan near record highs after PM exit
Investing.com -- RBC Capital analysts cautioned that Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has added fresh uncertainty to the equity outlook, compounding existing concerns over valuations and seasonality, while the firm also highlighted what it sees as buyer fatigue.
“Friday’s jobs report may inject some fresh uncertainty about the labor market backdrop into a U.S. equity market that’s been priced for perfection,” RBC Capital said in a note.
Non-farm payrolls rose just 22,000 in August, well below consensus, while June was revised down to a loss of 13,000.
The firm noted that while the S&P 500 initially gained as investors priced in a September Federal Reserve rate cut, the index “ended down a bit on the day as the reality of a slowing labor market, and the idea that cuts may actually be needed and not merely preemptive, settled in.”
Despite the muted reaction, RBC warned that conditions for U.S. equities this autumn could be volatile.
“Our worries have centered on elevated valuations in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100,” said RBC. “The tendency of September and October to be tough months for S&P 500 performance… and the sudden deterioration in AAII net bullishness,” the analysts wrote.
One area of optimism was sector allocation. RBC reiterated its overweight stance on the S&P 500 Materials sector, citing “generally favorable signals,” positive fund flows and valuations that continue to look attractive.
However, they highlighted weakness in equity flows, particularly among retail investors, which “cause us to question whether retail investors can be relied on to buy dips in the short term.”
Meanwhile, RBC highlighted that flows to U.S. equity funds have clawed their way back to positive territory, but noted they are “still quite weak.”
“When we zoom out, we think this is evidence of buyers fatigue,” said Calvasina. “Geographically, flows to Europan and German equity funds have also been slightly negative.”
“Digging a little deeper, U.S. and European flows for both U.S. and non-U.S. domiciled equity funds have been weak, while global, excluding U.S., flows have been positive but with deteriorating trends.”
Overall, RBC concluded that while recession risks remain contained, the equity backdrop faces pressure from slowing labour dynamics, high valuations, and fading investor enthusiasm.