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Investing.com -- RBC Capital Markets on Wednesday initiated coverage of Schott Pharma AG & Co. KGaA with a “sector perform” rating and a €21.50 one-year price target, saying the pharmaceutical packaging supplier faces continued earnings pressure from weakening polymer-syringe demand tied to mRNA vaccines, while GLP-1 exposure provides only a partial offset.
The brokerage said it sees modest downside to consensus estimates, 3% on 2026 revenue and 6% on 2026 EPS, with margins broadly in line.
The Germany-based company, which manufactures vials, syringes, ampoules and cartridges used in injectable drugs, has seen a contraction in its high-margin polymer syringe segment.
Polymer syringes represented about 20% of 2024 sales and nearly 30% of EBITDA, with roughly half of those volumes linked to mRNA vaccines.
RBC noted that demand fell in 2025 (undisclosed magnitude, estimated by RBC at about 30%) and may decline further in 2026, creating what it described as a low-to-mid single-digit sales headwind. It added that replacing mRNA volumes could “take years.”
RBC said Schott’s GLP-1 exposure is growing, with the company previously disclosing more than $1 billion in GLP-1-related container contracts through 2030.
GLP-1 products accounted for around 5% of 2024 revenue, increasing to about 10% in 2025, and the contract total implies about €150 million annually through 2030, equivalent to about 5% incremental revenue growth in 2026.
Schott also holds a strong position in high-growth antibody-drug conjugate packaging, although volumes remain small.
The analysts project FY2026 revenue of €1.06 billion, versus €987.8 million estimated for 2025, with their forecast approximately 3 percentage points below consensus due mainly to foreign-exchange assumptions.
They expect 2026 EBITDA of €317.4 million, up from €280.1 million in 2025, with an estimated 30% EBITDA margin roughly 1 percentage point above consensus due to easing ramp-up costs in Hungary and Serbia and higher RTU (ready-to-use) product mix. RTU products made up 60% of sales in Q3 2025, up from 55% in H1 2025 and 30% in 2020.
Below operating profit, RBC models higher financial expenses and a 23.5% tax rate compared with consensus expectations of 21%, resulting in 2026 EPS of €1.11, in line with its estimates but 6% below consensus. It projects low-double-digit revenue growth beyond 2026 and mid-teens EPS CAGR in the medium term.
The brokerage said Schott’s valuation has fallen 45% in 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and P/E since its IPO, compared with about 25% declines for packaging peers.
The shares trade with liquidity of less than $1 million per day, while Schott AG retains a 77% stake. RBC applied a 9x 2027E EBITDA multiple, incorporating a 15% liquidity discount and 10% discount for potential consensus downside, to reach its €21.50 target.
RBC said clarity on the mRNA trajectory, GLP-1 contract expansion, divisional mix and FX effects will be key when Schott issues FY25 results and FY26 guidance on Dec. 11.