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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Seven & i Holdings Co. Ltd. to ’A-’ from a higher rating, citing weakened competitiveness in its convenience store business across Japan and North America.
The rating agency pointed to ongoing challenges at the company’s U.S.-based 7-Eleven operations, which generate between 50% and 60% of the group’s EBITDA. The U.S. business has been underperforming competitors for the past two years due to its pricing strategy amid persistent inflation, resulting in declining customer traffic and negative same-store sales growth.
In Japan, Seven-Eleven Japan is also struggling to meet consumer needs with its pricing policies as shoppers continue to seek cost savings. While its average daily sales remain about 20% higher than domestic rivals Family Mart Co. Ltd. and Lawson Inc (TYO:2651)., this gap is gradually narrowing.
S&P does not anticipate a quick recovery for the convenience store operations in either region. EBITDA declined significantly in fiscal 2024 (ended February 28, 2025) at both 7-Eleven and Seven-Eleven Japan. For 7-Eleven, S&P expects EBITDA to recover moderately over the next one to two years from $3.6 billion (approximately ¥550 billion) in fiscal 2024, supported by price policy revisions and improved store operation efficiency.
In Japan, EBITDA is expected to remain stable at ¥330 billion or more over the next one to two years, compared to ¥323.5 billion in fiscal 2024. However, S&P estimates it will take two to three years for the combined EBITDA of both regions to recover to the fiscal 2023 level of about ¥940 billion.
The rating agency also noted that Seven & i’s financial policy has become less conservative, with plans to allocate 40% each of its ¥7.5 trillion cash inflow to growth investments and shareholder returns. The debt to EBITDA ratio is expected to improve from 3.2x in fiscal 2024 to just under 3x in the current fiscal year.
S&P maintained a stable outlook on the rating, reflecting its view that EBITDA will remain stable despite the competitive environment as the company strengthens measures to recover profits in its convenience store businesses.
The rating agency warned it would consider further downgrades if Seven & i’s debt to EBITDA deteriorates to over 3.5x, or if the company experiences delays in responding to changes in consumer behavior leading to significant declines in profitability.
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