Gold prices edge up amid Fed rate cut hopes; US-Russia talks awaited
Investing.com - Stock markets have priced in "a lot of positive news" following the signing of President Donald Trump’s signature fiscal policy, but lofty valuations mean that equities are still vulnerable to potential shocks, according to analysts at Wolfe Research.
In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts wrote that the passage of Trump’s landmark tax-cuts and spending package last week could set U.S. growth up for stimulus as high as 0.4% of gross domestic product next year.
The bill "likely removes the downside case for the U.S. economy over the next year," they argued.
Stocks have largely recovered from an April swoon following Trump’s announcement of his sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs, with the benchmark S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, and small-cap-focused Russell 2000 up by 7.5%, 9.3%, 1.6% so far this year, respectively.
Investors, once panic-striken by the implications of the tariffs, have shifted to relief buying, although much of the rally has been driven by retail participants and corporate share buybacks. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have remained somewhat more cautious.
Potential deals being hashed out by the White House with several trading partners, coupled with benign inflationary pressures and the possible restart of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year, have contributed to investors viewing the current environment with a more sanguine, "glass half full" outlook, the analysts said.
However, they flagged that technical indicators have been signaling that markets are "significantly overbought."
"Our sense is that with stretched valuations, any whiff of bad news leaves stocks vulnerable," the analysts said.
Arguing that this backdrop will persist through the end of the year, the strategists said they plan to stick with barbell positioning, which focuses on investing in both perceived high-risk and no-risk assets. They prefer a mix of defensive sectors like staples and utilities and cyclical growth segments like communication services, financials and technology.
"Additionally, given our view the U.S. economy is likely to hold up, but not reaccelerate, we prefer Growth over Value, Large Cap over Small Cap, and Market Weighted over Equal Weighted indices," they said.