STMicro stock: Can the rally sustain amid tariff clouds? Analyst weighs in

Published 21/07/2025, 12:18
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has raised its price target for STMicroelectronics (EPA:STMPA) to €26 from €22 but maintained an “equal weight” rating, warning that the recent share rally may be overextended amid persistent tariff risks and sluggish demand across key markets, in a note dated Monday.

Analysts said the rally was partly driven by management’s optimistic tone and signs of recovery in the semiconductor cycle. 

However, they flagged concerns about industrial softness, weak traction in China’s automotive segment, and the impact of trade tariffs. 

STM guided second-quarter sales of $2.71 billion, up roughly 8% quarter over quarter, with gross margin of about 33.4%, including 420 basis points of unused capacity charges. 

Management expects margins to improve in the second half of 2025. Inventory levels reached 166 days, or about $3 billion, at the end of Q1, and are projected to remain flat or slightly higher in Q2.

In the automotive sector, STM saw a modest recovery in Q1, but Morgan Stanley expects full-year sales to fall by 20%, partly due to a $300 million drop in capacity reservation fees. 

Despite this, robust car production in Europe and China has helped maintain near-term sales levels. 

Looking ahead to 2026, automotive sales are expected to rebound 19%, although China remains a weak spot for STM’s design wins.

Industrial sales are forecast to recover year over year in the second half of 2025. Management noted stabilization in China’s demand, particularly for general-purpose microcontrollers, though pricing remains inconsistent. 

In personal electronics, STM is expected to benefit from content growth in new iPhones and continued strength in optical sensing, with a robust second half projected.

The analysts remain cautious about silicon carbide (SiC) sales, which are expected to decline from over $1.1 billion last year to just over $900 million in 2025. 

This is attributed to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) switching to a second supplier and falling device prices amid supply chain shifts. STM’s share beyond Tesla remains limited.

STM maintained its 2025 capital expenditure guidance at $2.0–2.3 billion but has not issued a full-year sales outlook. Management said it expects better performance in the second half compared to the first.

Morgan Stanley values STM at €26 per share, based on a 2026 earnings estimate of $1.62 and an 18x price-to-earnings multiple, near the midpoint of the company’s historical 12–20x range. 

The brokerage believes the current share price reflects much of the anticipated 2026 recovery and that risks tied to tariffs and weaker-than-expected market recovery remain underappreciated.

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