Gold prices bounce off 3-week lows; demand likely longer term
Investing.com -- Rob Kaplan, formerly of the Federal Reserve and currently at Goldman Sachs, noted a shift in the global economic landscape during a recent Bloomberg Sell-Side Forum on April 22. Kaplan pointed out that technology is now replacing globalization as a threat to jobs, a significant change in the economic narrative.
In his discussion, Kaplan highlighted five structural changes in the economy, including U.S. deleveraging. Among these changes, he noted an increase in oil production and changes in immigration patterns. He mentioned that firms are reporting a decline in undocumented workers coming into work, which has a chilling effect on the workforce.
Speaking about China, Kaplan described the nation as an adversary and a rival, but also inextricably linked to the U.S. He also noted that there is a lot happening at once in the financial landscape. Some investors, he pointed out, are looking to reduce their exposure to the dollar due to institutional uncertainty impacting asset allocation.
Kaplan also spoke about the mood within the C-suite, indicating a drop from previous enthusiasm about deregulation. However, he expressed confidence that businesspeople will work through this period of uncertainty. He noted that small businesses are struggling and expressed concerns about competition.
Kaplan added that CEOs are now paying more attention to the news than before. They are also eager to see the relationship with Canada and Mexico resolved. He noted that CEOs would be encouraged if they see visible progress soon.
On the topic of China negotiations, Kaplan suggested that it would be better if these were conducted behind closed doors. He also mentioned that CEOs are wondering if the modest slowing in the economy could become more severe.
Kaplan emphasized that U.S. exceptionalism is real, and U.S. companies serve as ambassadors for this exceptionalism. He praised Jerome Powell, the current Federal Reserve Chair, saying that Powell has handled the economic situation well. Kaplan also noted that the Fed is prepared to step in if there’s a downturn and that Powell needs to anchor inflation expectations.
Kaplan expressed doubt that the Federal Reserve would be able to figure out rates by May and said that the Fed will take it one meeting at a time. He stressed the importance of the independence of the central bank to U.S. success and suggested that the Fed should not be wrapped up in the political system.
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