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Investing.com -- GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson is warning that Wall Street forecasts for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s second-quarter deliveries are optimistic, especially in light of rising global trade tensions and deteriorating sales data from key markets like China and Europe.
“The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to happen,” Johnson wrote in a new note, arguing that such a dislocation now exists with Tesla.
Johnson takes aim at Troy Teslike, an independent analyst frequently cited by Wall Street, who is projecting quarter-over-quarter delivery growth of 27% in Europe, 25% in China, 15% in the U.S., and 41% in the rest of the world.
“Despite evidence to the contrary... TroyTeslike is modeling significant growth,” Johnson wrote, citing Tesla’s own reported sales data showing a 32.3% decline in China sales through the first two weeks of the quarter.
He also pointed to the historical impact of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, which led to “a reciprocal 25% tariff on U.S.-made vehicles,” and warned that renewed tensions today could similarly undercut Tesla’s global competitiveness.
“The automotive industry was heavily impacted by the U.S.-China 2018 trade war due to its reliance on global supply chains and significant manufacturing presence in China,” Johnson said.
In Europe, Johnson notes that Elon Musk’s personal brand could further limit Tesla’s growth.
“Disdain for Elon Musk on the continent is at/near record highs,” Johnson wrote, citing a January 2025 YouGov poll showing Musk’s net favorability at -53 in the U.K. and -52 in Germany.
GLJ Research contends that between geopolitical friction and deteriorating regional sentiment,
The analyst believes the consensus may be making a grave error in its estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E global auto sales.