The Generac ’story has changed’ says Jefferies

Published 11/08/2025, 17:36

Investing.com -- Generac Holdings’ strategic pivot away from underperforming clean tech investments has altered its investment case, Jefferies said in a note Monday, upgrading the stock to Hold from Underperform.

“We are positive on the strategic shift away from the underperforming clean tech investments, which should raise margin performance,” Jefferies wrote. 

While the firm noted that “long-term execution in the data center market remains uncertain given entrenched competition,” it said the current backlog “provides some visibility while the theme supports sentiment.”

Generac is scaling back investment in its residential solar business after “disappointing returns” tied to a sluggish market, a product recall and limited share.

The company had previously projected residential energy technology revenue of $700 million in 2026, growing at a 33% CAGR from 2023. It now expects $300 million to $400 million in 2025 sales, with “PR contract headwind into 2026,” stated Jefferies.

Jefferies said the shift should ease margin pressure, with the energy technology segment expected to dilute EBITDA margins by 3–3.5% in 2025. 

The firm estimates “potential for ~150bps of margin expansion assuming ET at break-even levels, with an additional ~175bps of improvement assuming no drag—though at the cost of previously anticipated top-line growth.”

Generac is also entering the large generator market to compete with Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Cummins (NYSE:CMI), supported by a $150 million backlog for 2026 and capacity for $500 million in annual sales. 

While management sees data centers as a key growth opportunity, Jefferies warned that “larger competitors have deep relationships and proven scale” that may limit share gains.

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