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Investing.com -- Big box retailers have shown varied performance in recent months, with some clear winners emerging in the competitive landscape. According to Investing.com’s WarrenAI’s analysis using Investing Pro’s metrics, including Fair Value assessments, Pro scores, technical indicators, and analyst price targets, certain retail giants are outperforming their peers despite valuation concerns.
1. Walmart
Walmart has delivered an impressive 28.3% total return over the past year, outpacing most retail sector investments. With a "GOOD" Pro score of 2.81, the company demonstrates solid financial health. While trading at a premium with InvestingPro’s Fair Value indicating a potential -27.4% downside, Wall Street remains bullish with a consensus price target of $115.00. Technical indicators show buy signals across daily and weekly charts. Investors appear willing to pay a premium for Walmart’s scale advantages, e-commerce growth, and media ambitions. The company’s 30-year dividend streak further solidifies its position atop the retail hierarchy.
In recent developments, Walmart saw its price target raised to $125 by BofA Securities, and the company expanded its pharmacy delivery service to include cold-chain prescriptions.
2. Costco
Costco’s renowned membership model continues to drive strong renewal rates and customer loyalty. The company earns a "GOOD" Pro score of 2.90, reflecting robust financial performance. Despite being priced at a steep premium with Pro Fair Value suggesting a -23.9% downside, analyst targets reach as high as $1,175. Technical analysis presents mixed signals, with daily charts indicating "sell" while long-term momentum remains positive. For investors seeking steady compounding and comfortable with a rich P/E ratio, Costco represents the gold standard in consumer staples.
Costco reported an 8.7% net sales increase for August 2025 and an 8.1% increase for the fiscal year, while also receiving a rating downgrade to Hold from Erste Group citing valuation concerns.
3. Home Depot
Home Depot boasts a "GOOD" Pro score of 2.61, offers a substantial 2.2% dividend yield, and has experienced a 14.7% price surge over the past three months. Valuation metrics show a modest -13.6% Pro downside, though analyst support remains solid with price targets reaching $497. Technical signals range from neutral to bullish, with particularly strong buy indicators on the monthly timeframe.
The Home Depot recently completed its acquisition of GMS Inc., a distributor of specialty building products, for an enterprise value of approximately $5.5 billion.
4. Lowe’s
Lowe’s represents a "rolling recovery" story with a Pro score of 2.67. The company shows a -12.6% Pro downside in valuation terms but leads the group with an 18.7% three-month return. Its 42-year dividend streak demonstrates long-term financial stability and shareholder commitment.
Lowe’s secured new credit agreements to help finance a planned $8.8 billion acquisition and also received price target increases from several firms, including KeyBanc and Piper Sandler.
5. Target
Target stands out as the only big box retailer showing substantial Pro Fair Value upside at 45.3%. However, this comes with significant challenges, including a -42.1% one-year return and a "FAIR" financial health score. Wall Street remains cautious, with recent downgrades and price targets as low as $80. The company maintains a 55-year dividend growth streak with a 3.3% yield. Technical indicators show strong sell signals across all timeframes, with RSI readings in deeply oversold territory. This suggests high risk but potentially high rewards for patient investors seeking value opportunities.
Target announced an upcoming CEO transition, with Michael Fiddelke set to take the role in February 2026, while firms like RBC Capital and TD Cowen raised their price targets on the company’s stock.
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