These 2 were the busiest U.S. apparel and beauty stores on Black Friday
Investing.com -- As retailers move past the autumn slowdown, attention shifts to the holiday season and the promising outlook for 2026.
Evercore ISI has identified five retail stocks positioned to benefit from upcoming tax cuts and policy changes that could inject significant consumer stimulus into the economy.
According to Evercore’s Trump 2.1 report, the Better Business Bureau’s tax cuts will provide over $134 billion in annualized consumer benefits beginning in less than two months. For 2026, nearly $200 billion of year-over-year direct consumer stimulus is expected, outweighing approximately $100 billion in headwinds.
This stimulus will likely peak between February and May 2026 as retroactive 2025 tax cuts appear in tax refunds, potentially pushing monthly tailwinds from $8 billion to over $30 billion by spring.
While challenges remain, including SNAP benefit reductions and student loan repayments creating a $20 billion offset, Evercore’s retail portfolio focuses on defensive growth stocks for 2026:
1. Walmart (WMT): Tops Evercore’s list as a defensive retail giant well-positioned to capitalize on increased consumer spending from tax cuts. The company’s scale and value proposition make it a prime beneficiary of the expected stimulus.
Following strong third-quarter results that exceeded expectations, Walmart saw several analyst firms, including DA Davidson and Piper Sandler, raise their price targets. The company is also testing new advertising formats in its AI shopping assistant.
2. Amazon (AMZN): Ranked second in Evercore’s portfolio, Amazon continues to dominate e-commerce and cloud services, positioning it to benefit from increased consumer discretionary spending expected in 2026.
In recent developments, Amazon.com reported accelerating revenue growth for its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division in the third quarter. The company also closed a multi-tranche bond offering totaling nearly $15 billion.
3. O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY): The auto parts retailer secures the third position, likely due to its recession-resistant business model and potential benefits from consumers having additional funds for vehicle maintenance.
O’Reilly Automotive reported third-quarter earnings that surpassed analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue. Additionally, the company’s board authorized a $2.0 billion increase to its share repurchase program.
4. Genuine Parts Company (GPC): Fourth on the list, this automotive replacement parts distributor complements the defensive growth theme, providing essential products that benefit from increased consumer spending capacity.
Genuine Parts Company announced its third-quarter results, which missed earnings per share forecasts but beat revenue expectations. The company’s board also declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $1.03 per share.
5. Home Depot (HD): Rounding out the top five, Home Depot stands to gain from potential housing policy changes mentioned in Evercore’s outlook, along with increased disposable income for home improvement projects.
The Home Depot declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, marking the 155th consecutive quarter it has paid one. Following its third-quarter results, several firms, including Truist Securities and TD Cowen, adjusted their price targets on the company.
Evercore projects retail sales growth will decelerate slightly to 5% this holiday season, followed by 4.5% growth in 2026, supporting a return to approximately 10% earnings per share growth for the sector. The firm’s Monthly Retail Tailwind Model provides timing details and demographic breakdowns to identify potential winners and losers in this changing economic landscape.
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