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Investing.com -- JPMorgan upgraded TPG to Overweight, saying the recent selloff across alternative asset managers, triggered by concerns over stress in private credit, has created an attractive entry point in a stock it views as structurally well positioned for sustained growth.
The brokerage said that recent high-profile credit bankruptcies are idiosyncratic rather than systemic and do not signal broader cracks in private lending.
TPG shares are down about 6% since September and 7% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 14%. The lag is unwarranted, JPMorgan says.
At roughly 18 times its 2026 distributable earnings estimate and 14 times 2027, the current valuation offers “a compelling runway,” the analysts said.
JPMorgan expects fundraising to accelerate in the coming quarters as several of TPG’s largest strategies kick off new vintages.
On its last earnings call, TPG flagged that its latest U.S. Buyout and Healthcare funds could bring in around $9 billion of first-close commitments in the third quarter of 2025 alone.
The firm also cited additional upside from TPG’s expansion into private wealth distribution and from synergies tied to its Angelo Gordon and Peppertree acquisitions.
JPMorgan expects carried interest earnings to ramp in longer term, noting TPG’s active deployment pace and its ability to execute complex transactions such as the multi-step Dish–DirecTV carve-out.
The analysts called TPG “optimally sized,” saying it has enough scale to double fee-paying assets without running into constraints that affect bigger peers, while avoiding capability gaps that weigh on smaller managers.
JPMorgan lifted its price target to $78 from $65 and introduced 2027 earnings estimates.