Palantir a high-risk investment with ’a one-of-a-kind growth and margin model’
Investing.com -- UBS Global Research has downgraded Deutsche Boerse (ETR:DB1Gn) to a “neutral” rating from a prior “buy,” citing limited potential for further consensus earnings upgrades and a peak valuation that has left the stock’s risk-reward profile more balanced than attractive.
The brokerage noted that shares of Deutsche Boerse have surged 55% since August 2024, benefiting from both upward revisions to consensus earnings estimates and a significant expansion in valuation multiples.
However, UBS believes that these drivers have largely run their course. Deutsche Boerse is now trading at 27 times forward earnings, excluding net treasury income, a level that is more than two full turns above its prior peak valuation recorded in 2020.
While the broader outlook for earnings remains strong, UBS analysts said they no longer see meaningful upside to consensus earnings per share for 2026 and 2027, which have already been raised by 8% year-to-date.
The team pointed out that their estimates are now largely in line with consensus after being 8-10% above 12 months ago.
UBS also revised its 12-month price target for Deutsche Boerse to €309 from €320, reflecting a slightly higher assumed risk-free rate. As of June 10, the stock was trading at €277.90.
Despite continued expectations for growth, projected at a 13% EBITDA compound annual growth rate through 2027 (excluding NTI), UBS warned that much of this has already been priced into the shares.
Trading revenue growth, which is closely tied to market volatility, could face headwinds from what the analysts describe as "trading fatigue," a phenomenon typically seen three to four months after a spike in trading volumes.
Deutsche Boerse remains a solid defensive holding as its revenue at Eurex and EEX tends to be driven by volatility, according to UBS.
However, the analysts stated that while elevated volatility and a €1.2 trillion US-to-Europe equity rotation may continue to support revenues, these factors are now broadly reflected in current market expectations.
In contrast, UBS maintained “buy” ratings for Euronext (EPA:ENX) and London Stock Exchange Group (LON:LSEG), highlighting that ENX’s valuation metrics are relatively more attractive and that earnings could surprise in the months ahead.