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Investing.com -- UBS says the investment case for emerging market (EM) equities is strengthening, underpinned by supportive macro trends and improved relative valuations.
“The case for EM equity is getting better,” the firm wrote in a note to clients, citing catalysts such as a weaker U.S. dollar, easing credit conditions in China, and broad monetary policy flexibility.
According to UBS, EM equities now top its global scorecard, supported by favourable monetary conditions, positive earnings revisions, and sensitivity to a macro scenario that includes falling U.S. TIPS yields and looser Chinese fiscal policy.
“Virtually all EM ex Brazil are in cutting mode,” the analysts noted.
UBS said it raised EM to benchmark back in April, arguing that the likelihood of outperformance had grown. While EM equity performance has lagged debt, the firm believes top-down conditions are aligning for a catch-up.
China and Brazil were flagged as standout opportunities. UBS cited China’s “dividend yield close to junk bond yield, better earnings revisions than global markets, huge underownership and signs of improved capital discipline.”
Meanwhile, in Brazil, “rates have now peaked,” said the bank.
The bank is overweight currencies like the Taiwan dollar, which benefit from strong net international investment positions, while recommending downside protection on cyclical currencies such as the South Korean won.
UBS also highlighted indirect exposure to EM through companies like Colgate and AB InBev, as well as developed market banks such as Santander (BME:SAN) and Standard Chartered (LON:STAN), all of which retain “relatively cheap” valuations.
“The case for EM is getting better in our opinion,” UBS said, though it warned there is “little margin for error ahead of August 1.”