Barclays now sees two Fed cuts this year, says jumbo Fed cuts ’very unlikely’
Investing.com -- UBS expects the Swiss Market Index (SMI) to achieve 4% profit growth in 2025 and 5% in 2026, despite headwinds from US trade policies and tariffs.
In a report released Wednesday, UBS Switzerland AG’s CIO Equity Strategist Stefan R Meyer noted that US President Donald Trump’s trade and economic policies are slowing down the global economy and Swiss corporate earnings.
The US implemented a new 39% tariff on Swiss goods on August 7, though UBS estimates only 1-2% of SMI companies’ group sales are currently affected. Pharmaceuticals, which make up a significant portion of Swiss exports to the US, are currently exempt from the tariff.
UBS expects negotiations to eventually result in a trade deal and lower tariffs. However, the firm warns that the coming weeks will be crucial for the pharmaceutical sector, particularly regarding the conclusion of Section 232 investigations into sectoral tariffs.
President Trump has recently pressured global pharmaceutical companies to reduce prices, giving them 60 days to develop price cut strategies.
The SMI’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently modestly above its historical average, which UBS considers a fair valuation given current earnings expectations.
UBS recommends investors focus on quality firms and service companies, particularly in telecommunications, health care, and consumer staples sectors. The firm also suggests selective investments in cyclicals and mid-caps.
"Swiss high-quality dividends" remains UBS’s favored investment theme in the Swiss equity market, noting that high-quality dividends with growth are particularly attractive given current low Swiss franc bond yields.
In its upside scenario, UBS projects an SMI target of 13,600 by June 2026, while its downside scenario points to 10,200, with the central scenario targeting 12,600.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.