UBS sees S&P 500 rising to 6800 by end of 2026

Published 11/08/2025, 15:32
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS has lifted its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,100 from 5,500 and set a new year-end 2026 target of 6,800, citing stronger-than-expected U.S. economic and corporate performance.

The bank said its revised forecasts carry “two key messages.” First, the higher targets “recognise that US economic & company health has been better than expected in the recent past.” 

UBS noted that “worst-case scenarios on tariffs have not been realised,” while “confidence in fiscal support and a weaker dollar have mitigated the earnings impact, spreads are tight and flows have remained supportive.”

Second, UBS warned that the headwinds it had anticipated earlier this year “have belatedly arrived and sit heavy on the cyclical horizon.” 

The bank expects the U.S. “growth inflation mix is likely to worsen,” which could dampen earnings growth expectations and “lift equity volatility.” 

That volatility, UBS said, “would challenge the flow-driven momentum trade buoying valuations.”

Despite the higher long-term projection, UBS maintained a cautious near-term view. It now sees the S&P 500 “lower in the near-term” and expects it to “remain below current levels even by end ’25” before staging “a smart recovery in H2 ’26.”

UBS last updated its S&P 500 target on April 22, 2025, when it projected 5,500 for year-end under a “mild tariff scenario.” 

The latest upgrade reflects a reassessment in light of recent market resilience, but the bank underscored that risks tied to macroeconomic conditions, earnings pressure, and valuation sustainability remain in play.

 

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