Investing.com -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury has revealed its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing for the second and third quarters of 2025.
In the second quarter, from April to June 2025, the Treasury anticipates borrowing $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. This estimate assumes an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion. This borrowing projection is $391 billion more than the figure announced in February 2025. The increase is mainly due to a lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and expected lower net cash flows. However, these factors are partially offset by a decrease in Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions of $60 billion. Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion less than the February announcement.
For the third quarter, from July to September 2025, the Treasury is expected to borrow $554 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, given an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.
In the first quarter of 2025, from January to March, the Treasury borrowed $369 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, finishing the quarter with a cash balance of $406 billion. In February 2025, the Treasury had estimated borrowing of $815 billion and an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The $446 billion difference in privately-held net marketable borrowing primarily resulted from a lower end-of-quarter cash balance. If the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance is excluded, actual borrowing was $2 billion less than the February estimate.
More details about the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be made available at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
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