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Investing.com -- Amazon’s push into groceries, while a vast opportunity, carries significant risks for profitability, according to analysts.
Wells Fargo’s Ken Gawrelski estimates a worst-case annual operating income (OI) dilution of $2.5 billion to $3 billion for every point of U.S. grocery market share the company captures.
The analyst framed this as a downside case, noting that at a $25 minimum order for free delivery, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) could lose about $5 per order. At that threshold, capturing just 1% of the U.S. grocery market would mean roughly 500 million new orders on incremental grocery merchandise volume of nearly $13 billion.
“We frame the downside scenario, not the most likely scenario, as all orders coming at the free delivery minimum is unrealistic,” Gawrelski said.
Amazon’s scale highlights why the company is pressing into groceries despite the challenges. With an estimated gross merchandise volume near $1 trillion in 2025, Gawrelski believes that “very few new categories can move the needle at Amazon, which is why we believe AMZN finds the prospect so enticing.”
Every point of U.S. grocery share captured would contribute about four points to North America e-commerce growth, according to the report.
The analyst pointed out that Amazon is deploying its most critical distribution tool—Prime—to accelerate penetration, signaling that management sees groceries as a must-win category.
After years of experimenting through Whole Foods, retail pilots, and Fresh delivery, Amazon now appears “all in.”
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) sees Prime same-day delivery as the company’s competitive moat, though it noted delivery windows and product selection remain hurdles relative to rivals.
According to Gawrelski, Amazon could address the selection challenge with a three-pronged approach: expanding physical retail, building dark stores, and forming grocery partnerships.
Logistics execution is less of a concern. “We would never bet against AMZN’s logistics capabilities and do expect AMZN will meet consumer needs for tighter delivery windows,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, grocery and convenience delivery adoption is accelerating industry-wide, with growth at companies such as DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH), Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Instacart (NASDAQ:CART), and serving as a key pillar of Walmart’s e-commerce strategy.
Gawrelski said Amazon’s localized fulfillment buildout and consumer adoption trends are driving its push, with Prime same-day delivery positioned to bring consistency and convenience to both small and larger grocery baskets