Bank of America just raised its EUR/USD forecast
Investing.com -- The S&P 500 has remained resilient despite weakening macroeconomic data, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts, who argue that the key lies in sector-specific impacts of policy choices.
“The economy and markets have been telling diverging stories: macroeconomic data point to an incrementally weakening environment, while the S&P 500 has posted positive YTD performance after April’s significant low,” Morgan Stanley said.
The bank explained that tariffs and immigration have created macroeconomic headwinds, dragging on growth and inflation.
However, the negative effects are concentrated in sectors with a limited share of the index’s market capitalization.
By contrast, “the OBBBA benefits sectors with large weights in the index due to provisions like upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation. These create cash flow benefits for sectors with an outsized share of market cap,” Morgan Stanley noted.
The firm stressed that equity markets are forward-looking, having already priced in a slowdown earlier this year.
“Liberation Day marked peak uncertainty and peak concern around tariffs for equity investors, and we believe the market is now focused on a rebounding earnings backdrop,” the analysts wrote.
From a sectoral perspective, Consumer Discretionary faces “a combination of margin pressure and weaker pricing power,” leading to underperformance. Industrials are seen benefiting from near-shoring and domestic AI investment, while semiconductors have outperformed thanks to the AI theme despite policy headwinds.
Morgan Stanley said this explains why U.S. equities have held up.
The firm remains overweight Industrials and Financials, while underweight Consumer Discretionary, expecting continued strength in “AI/Tech Diffusion and Re-shoring themes within the U.S.”