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Investing.com -- Citi analysts say the do-it-yourself (DIY) segment continues to show signs of weakness in the second quarter, with both Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) experiencing soft traffic trends and relying increasingly on Pro customer strength to offset declines.
In a note to clients, the bank pointed to weather disruptions as a factor: “It’s rained a lot! That’s been the starting point for any discussion about spring business for the home improvement retailers.”
The analysts tracked promotional events and traffic trends to assess the outlook for Q2 same-store sales (SSS).
They said Home Depot (Buy-rated) extended the duration of its spring promotions compared to last year, running events continuously in May and June.
However, traffic data is reportedly still soft. “Positive trends around Easter have reversed to firmly negative foot traffic throughout May and into June,” Citi wrote.
They added that web traffic has also been “consistently soft throughout the spring selling season.”
For Lowe’s (Neutral-rated), Citi notes that they launched two new longer-duration events — Member Week and Mulch Week — but eliminated others.
Citi stated that “LOW foot traffic has been firmly in the negative in 2025 relative to mixed traffic trends in 2024,” while web traffic also lagged.
“DIY continues to see weakness thus far in 2Q, which is more meaningful for LOW,” Citi said, adding that the sector’s second-quarter performance will likely hinge on strength from Pro sales.
The firm is modeling +1.0% SSS growth for Home Depot and +1.5% for Lowe’s, largely in line with management commentary and consensus.
Overall, Citi concluded that “tracking promotional events as well as web traffic and store traffic data is a better indicator for DIY business trends,” and the data so far suggests continued challenges ahead.