Earnings call transcript: AAON Q3 2025 earnings beat expectations, stock surges

AAON Inc., a leader in HVAC solutions, reported robust financial results for Q3 2025, outpacing analysts’ expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37, surpassing the forecast of $0.32, and recorded a revenue of $384.2 million, exceeding the anticipated $332.53 million. This positive earnings surprise led to a significant pre-market stock surge of 21.07%, with shares trading at $113.15.

Key Takeaways

• AAON’s Q3 2025 earnings and revenue significantly outperformed forecasts.
• The company’s stock surged over 21% in pre-market trading following the earnings release.
• Strong performance in data center solutions and custom cooling products contributed to growth.
• Gross margin improved sequentially, despite a year-over-year decline.
• The backlog for the Basics brand grew by 119.5% year-over-year.

Company Performance

AAON demonstrated a strong performance in Q3 2025, with net sales increasing by 17.4% year-over-year to $384.2 million. The company’s focus on data center solutions and custom cooling products has paid off, as reflected in the substantial increase in bookings and the growing backlog of its Basics brand. Despite challenges in the commercial HVAC market, AAON has capitalized on the momentum in the data center sector, driving its performance above market expectations.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $384.2 million, up 17.4% year-over-year
• Earnings per share: $0.37, down 41.3% year-over-year, but up 94.7% sequentially
• Gross margin: 27.8%, down from 34.9% year-over-year, up 120 basis points sequentially
• Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin: 16.5%
• Cash and equivalents: $2.3 million
• Debt: $360.1 million

Earnings vs. Forecast

AAON surpassed expectations with an EPS of $0.37 compared to the forecast of $0.32, representing a 15.63% positive surprise. Revenue also exceeded projections by 15.54%, reaching $384.2 million against the expected $332.53 million. This marks a significant improvement from previous quarters, showcasing the company’s ability to outperform in a challenging market environment.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, AAON’s stock experienced a substantial pre-market increase of 21.07%, trading at $113.15. This movement reflects investor confidence in the company’s strong performance and future prospects. The stock’s surge positions it closer to its 52-week high of $144.07, indicating a positive market sentiment.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, AAON anticipates full-year sales growth in the mid-teens, with a gross margin guidance of 28-28.5%. The company expects continued margin improvement in Q4 and early 2026, driven by the expansion of its Memphis facility and the growing demand for its Basics brand. Strategic initiatives in lean manufacturing and operational efficiency are expected to further enhance performance.

Executive Commentary

"We are making steady progress across all areas of the business," stated Matt Tobolski, CEO of AAON. "The Basics brand remains the key growth driver of the company," he added, highlighting the brand’s significant backlog growth and strategic importance. Tobolski also emphasized the company’s commitment to financial integrity, addressing recent short report claims about accounting practices.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply chain disruptions could impact production and delivery schedules.
• The commercial HVAC market remains soft, posing a challenge to growth.
• Fluctuations in raw material costs could affect margins.
• Macroeconomic pressures may influence customer spending and investment.
• The success of ERP implementation is crucial for operational efficiency.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the ERP implementation lessons learned and the company’s response to short report claims. The management addressed margin challenges and outlined their path to improvement, emphasizing the growth strategy for the Basics and AAON brands. These discussions provided clarity on the company’s strategic direction and operational priorities.

Full transcript - AAON Inc (AAON) Q3 2025:

Conference Call Operator: Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AAON third quarter 2025 earnings release conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Joseph Mondillo, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Joseph Mondillo, Director of Investor Relations, AAON: Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. The press release announcing our third quarter financial results was issued earlier this morning and can be found on our corporate website, AAON.com. The call today is accompanied by a presentation that you can also find on our website as well as on the listen-only webcast. We begin with our customary forward-looking statement policy. During the call, any statement presented dealing with the information that is not historical is considered forward-looking and made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended. As such, it is subject to the occurrence of many events outside of AAON’s control that could cause AAON’s results to differ materially from those anticipated.

You are all aware of the inherent difficulties, risks, and uncertainties in making predictive statements. Our press release and Form 10Q that we filed this morning detail some of the important risk factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our predictions. Please note that we do not have a duty to update our forward-looking statements. Our press release and portions of today’s call use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. You can find the related reconciliations to GAAP measures in our press release and presentation. Joining me on the call today is Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, and Rebecca Thompson, CFO and Treasurer. Matt will start off with some opening remarks. Rebecca will then follow with a walkthrough of the quarterly results, and Matt will finish with our outlook for the rest of the year and some closing remarks.

With that, I will turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Thanks, Joe, and good morning. The third quarter marked a decisive inflection point in our operational recovery and capacity expansion. We saw substantial improvement in production throughput at both the Tulsa and Longview facilities, which drove meaningful sequential sales growth, while continued strength in bookings contributed to further backlog growth. While margins in the quarter continued to be impacted by operational inefficiencies in Longview and the early ramp-up of the new Memphis facility, we continue to make steady progress and expect sequential margin improvement to continue through the fourth quarter and into early 2026, putting us firmly on track toward our longer-term goals. The Basics brand continues to perform exceptionally well, fueled by strong momentum in the data center market, where favorably priced bookings have risen sharply, and the pipeline of opportunities remains robust. Basics branded backlog grew to $896.8 million.

Up 119.5% from a year ago and up 43.9% from the prior quarter. Demand for both our airside and liquid cooling products remains strong, reflecting how well our custom solutions align with customer needs. To meet this growing demand, we remain laser-focused on ramping up production capacity at our new Memphis facility. This facility adds nearly 800,000 sq ft of state-of-the-art manufacturing capacity, which provides considerable growth to our Basics production capabilities and positions us well for continued growth. The ramp-up of the facility is progressing as planned, with large-scale production expected by year-end. With a strong backlog and significant increase in capacity, we expect the Basics brand to deliver meaningful growth in 2026. The AAON brand continues to perform well, with sales rising substantially from the prior quarter and bookings remaining strong.

AAON branded sales grew 28.1% sequentially, driven by over 20% production increases at both the Tulsa and Longview facilities and improved utilization of the ERP system, enabling us to better meet demand. Tulsa production returned to prior-year levels, and Longview, while still about 20% below last year, showed strong progress. Based on September and October exit rates, we expect Longview is nearing full recovery. Enhanced production output of AAON branded equipment resulted in a book-to-bill ratio for the brand below one, successfully helping bring backlog and lead times of AAON branded equipment closer to normalized levels. While backlog for the brand remains higher than desired, we are making steady progress in reducing it. We are committed to achieving this in the near term, ensuring we can effectively serve our customers and restore a normal business cadence.

Despite a soft commercial HVAC market and extended lead times, AAON branded bookings remained strong. While flat year-over-year due to a challenging comparison, bookings were up 15% on a two-year stack, reflecting continued strength in underlying demand. National account wins were particularly robust, with bookings up 96% in the third quarter and 92% year-to-date, representing 35% of total bookings for the year. Bookings of Alpha-class air source heat pump equipment also continued their strong momentum, up 45% quarter-over-quarter and 46% year-to-date. As I mentioned earlier, Longview’s ERP implementation has progressed considerably. While production of AAON branded equipment at the facility remained about 20% below targets, output improved sequentially throughout the quarter, and by quarter-end, production of AAON branded equipment was approaching full recovery. Production of the new Basics branded equipment at Longview has performed exceptionally well, with consistent year-to-date improvement.

Despite the improvement in throughput, we continue to work through efficiency challenges that are weighing on facility profitability. We view these as temporary and expect meaningful margin improvement in the coming quarters. In Tulsa, average production levels for the quarter reflected a full recovery, and by quarter-end, we are running ahead of target. We made strong progress in improving coil supply, which supported the higher production volumes. While our supply of coils remains constrained, we are effectively managing through these constraints. With the Longview implementation now well underway, we have gained valuable experience and insight, both operational and technical, that will guide future ERP rollouts and greatly enhance our readiness to efficiently deploy the ERP system across our other facilities.

While we continue to expect some level of operational impact as future sites transition, we are far better prepared to manage these challenges with strengthened internal processes, improved training programs, and a proven framework that positions us to execute future implementations with greater speed, precision, and minimal disruption. We’ve applied the lessons learned from Longview to the Memphis GO Live, which occurred on November 1, and we continue to expect Redmond to transition in the first half of 2026, with Tulsa following in the second half. I will now turn the call over to Rebecca, who will walk through the financials in more detail.

Rebecca Thompson, CFO and Treasurer, AAON: Thank you, Matt. Net sales in the quarter increased year-over-year $57 million, or 17.4%, to $384.2 million. The increase was driven by a 95.8% rise in Basics-branded sales due to continued demand for data center solutions and increasing production out of our Memphis facility. AAON-branded sales were roughly in line with the prior year, declining 1.5%, but increased 28.1% sequentially, driven by solid production gains at both Tulsa and Longview facilities. Gross margin was 27.8%, down from 34.9% in the prior year, but up 120 basis points sequentially. The year-over-year contraction was primarily due to operational inefficiencies associated with the ERP system implementation and unabsorbed fixed costs related to the new Memphis facility. Sequentially, the improvements reflect progress made in optimizing the new ERP system and the resulting increases in production throughput at both the Tulsa and Longview facilities. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.5%.

Down from 25.3% a year ago, but up 160 basis points in the previous quarter. Diluted EPS was $0.37, down 41.3% from a year ago, but up 94.7% sequentially. Below-the-line pressures included elevated DDNA from Memphis and technology consulting fees related to the ERP implementation. Looking at the segment financials, starting with AAON Oklahoma, net sales grew 4.3% year-over-year and 29% sequentially. The growth was driven by a strong backlog entering the quarter and improved production throughput that enabled higher backlog conversion. Coil supply also improved, allowing us to efficiently scale production of AAON-branded equipment. Segment gross margin was 31.5%, down from 36.8% in the prior-year period, but up sequentially 400 basis points. The year-over-year contraction was primarily due to approximately $4.5 million in unabsorbed fixed costs associated with the new Memphis facility. AAON coil product sales increased $35 million, or 99.4%, from the year-ago period.

The year-over-year increase was driven by $46.5 million in Basics-branded liquid cooling product sales, a category that was not in production during the prior-year period. AAON-branded sales at this segment declined $10.9 million, or 31.6%, due to the ERP implementation disruptions. Sequentially, AAON-branded sales grew 36.2%, reflecting improved utilization of the new ERP system and the resulting increase in production throughput since its GO Live in April. Despite the improved throughput, gross margin declined sequentially, reflecting several discrete items which collectively impacted gross margin by 1,050 basis points in the quarter. We expect these challenges to be resolved with our ERP progress, and over time, we expect this segment will deliver gross margin of around 30% based on the strength of pricing within the backlog.

Sales at the Basics segment grew 19.2%, driven by sustained demand of data center solutions as the market continues to demonstrate strong momentum and the business captures additional market share. Initial production from our new Memphis facility played a key role in driving growth. Gross margin contracted modestly due to higher indirect warehouse personnel costs associated with operating the Redmond facility near full capacity. Optimization efforts at this facility remain a focus and are expected to accelerate as the Memphis facility continues to ramp. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash balances totaled $2.3 million on September 30, 2005. Debt at the end of the quarter was $360.1 million. Our leverage ratio was 1.73. Year-to-date, we had cash outflows from operations of $18.8 million compared to cash inflows of $191.7 million in the comparable period a year ago.

Capital expenditures for the first three quarters, including expenditures related to software development, increased 22.1% to $138.9 million. We had net borrowings of debt of $205 million over this period, largely to finance investments in working capital, capital expenditures, and $30 million in open market stock buybacks that we executed in the first quarter, all of which we anticipate will generate attractive returns. Overall, our financial position remained strong. We anticipate cash flow from operations will turn significantly positive in the fourth quarter as working capital, including contract assets, become a source of cash, reflecting payments received on a large order that was recently started deliveries. This gives us flexibility and allows us to continue focus on investments that will drive growth and generate attractive returns. We now anticipate 2025 capital expenditures will be $180 million compared to our previous estimate of $220 million.

The reduction primarily reflects project timing and the inability to fully deploy funds this year, with a majority of these expenditures expected to shift into 2026. I will now turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Thank you, Rebecca. As previously mentioned, backlog remains strong across both brands, giving us the confidence and visibility to stay focused on production and execution. The Basics brand remains the key growth driver of the company, fueled by exceptional demand for the data center market and the unique custom-designed solutions that we provide our customers. In the quarter, Basics secured a strong volume of new orders at attractive margins, most of which are scheduled for production at our new Memphis facility in 2026. This sets us up to ramp production efficiently next year, optimize the fixed cost investments made in 2025, and drive robust growth for the Basics brand in 2026. The AAON brand also maintains strong momentum. Backlog at the end of the quarter was up 77.1% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand across our business.

While backlog size and lead times remain extended, we are actively managing this by ramping production. Despite commercial HVAC volumes being down double digits year-to-date, bookings have stayed strong, demonstrating the resilience of our business. For the fourth quarter, we expect double-digit revenue growth driven by continued production recovery and pricing actions implemented earlier this year. This positions us well for 2026 as comparison sees. However, looking to 2026, we also plan to implement the ERP system at our Tulsa facility in the second half of the year. While we expect minimal disruption based on our Longview learnings, there may be some short-term production impact during the transition. Turning to our 2025 outlook, we now anticipate full-year sales growth in the mid-teens at a gross margin of 28-28.5%. Adjusted SG&A as a percent of sales expected to be 16.5%-17%.

Before I hand it off for Q&A, I just want to finish by saying, while we continue to navigate some near-term challenges, we’re making steady progress across all areas of the business. Our operational execution is improving, production is ramping, demand remains robust, and cash flow is trending in the right direction. As we look ahead, we are extremely excited about the opportunities that 2026 will bring. With that, I will now open the call for Q&A.

Conference Call Operator: At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the questions and congrats on the quarter. A lot of things to like here.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Thank you.

I want to start off.

Good morning.

Yeah, good morning. I wanted to start off with the Basics orders, which I think, for me, is the headline. You talked about liquid cooling being strong. You talked about Memphis is fully coming online. Just speak to drivers, speak to your confidence in your outlook for 40-50% growth for the Basics segment. You mentioned order visibility is pretty good. I just want to get a sense if you continue to expect strong orders.

Yeah, no, great questions. To start, maybe looking back to the Q2 earnings call where the sort of backlog in Basics was flat and was obviously a point of question from a lot of individuals, we messaged on that call that, obviously, we have to have the capacity and the visibility and our ability to execute those orders in order to really start taking on large orders to support the Memphis growth. As we’ve kind of progressed through the third quarter, we’ve had a lot more traction and visibility and kind of understanding what that ramp rate looks like, which allowed us to effectively go out to the market and really start filling the coffers for the Memphis facility. That, coupled with continued strength on liquid cooling orders out of the Longview site, airside solutions at both Memphis and the Redmond site, provided a lot of that backlog growth.

The Q3 sort of order security was really a good mix of orders from both airside, liquid-side orders, kind of across all of our sites, but certainly with a strong amount of focus on the Memphis facility as we look to ramp that up in late 2025 into 2026. As we think through the visibility, I would just say that the activity our team is having in the pipeline conversations and projects across existing as well as a number of new customers continues to strengthen and remain very strong. We are having a lot of interest, really, across the product portfolio and tremendous amount of conversations across the sort of entire network of data center developers as we look to really capitalize on the continued growth and align our unique value proposition to those customers. We see the basics.

The growth story certainly being very strong, certainly have good growth in 2025. As we go into 2026, we’ll see continued good strength in converting that backlog into sales.

That’s great. Okay, perfect. The one nitpick this quarter was gross margin. Good to hear, though, the ERP, you’re feeling strong there. The implied guidance for fourth quarter gross margin at 31%, you’re showing a step up. Let’s just take the two pieces. In Oklahoma, if I add back sort of the Memphis unabsorbed and you’re going to be getting to full production there soon, it sounds like, and then the price cost, which is really just a timing thing, should we think about sort of gross margins on a normalized basis for the Oklahoma segment at that 35%-36% level? That’s the first part of the question.

Yeah, no, and certainly the math you’re doing is putting you in that range. When we back out the Memphis impact and we back out that price cost differential kind of on that near-term kind of tariff dislocation, that does put you right in that mid-30s. Certainly, we see some additional pressures that existed when we look at the kind of year-over-year comp from 2024 to 2025 in Q3. Certainly, you got another 200-ish basis points of kind of gap there. Really, what I would say is we’ve been ramping up production, kind of meeting some near-term needs of Basics products inside the Oklahoma segment, which, while profitable in its sales, it certainly is a new product introduction into that facility that just caused some manufacturing inefficiencies where production lines aren’t optimized kind of to build that, but we were doing it to ensure we met customer demand.

I’d say that mid-30s with some headroom on top of that really is where we see the Oklahoma segment kind of at a normalized basis.

Got it. All right. I’ll leave the ACP questions for others, but it sounds like there’s some discrete items there and 30% long-term is the target. That’s kind of what I expected. Matt, I wanted to give you an opportunity before I turn it over to just comment on the short report that was out. I don’t know if that’s something you want to do, so I’ll give you that out. There were two claims that I was hoping you could respond to. One, the change in accounting has inflated revenues. Two, large liquid cooling gross margins are in the 20% range. Just any thoughts there?

Yes. Just maybe to start off on that report and really just to hit this head-on. We wanted to just kind of reaffirm that we take the integrity of our financial reporting incredibly seriously, and it is regularly reviewed by our independent auditors. These statements that are prepared and presented are fully in accordance with GAAP and with the rules of ASC 606. From a confidence standpoint, we’re incredibly confident in the strength of our business and the appropriateness of our accounting practices and our operations overall. With that, just saying that the demand for our products, the pricing of our products remains incredibly strong, and our focus is on executing our strategy, serving the customers, and making sure we deliver that long-term value for our shareholders. As we talk through the.

Purported changes in accounting practice, just to state that that is the ASC 606 standard, which is how revenue has been recognized for the Basics brand kind of throughout its history and since being acquired by AAON. When we look at the dynamics, there was certainly an increase in contract assets in the first half relative to that one large liquid cooling order, which is recognized as a custom-engineered, custom-manufactured product recognized on a percent of completion basis. When we think about this in context, that one order that was acquired late in the year last year and kind of converting through it this year, that was nearly the size, that single order was nearly the size of all of Basics in 2024. That just mathematically is going to drive that change in a near-term perspective on the contract assets.

In Q3, you saw those contract assets decline. You saw the receivables jump, showing that conversion in shipping and billing to that customer. That conversion is going to drive cash strength as receivables are kind of converted to cash in hand throughout the fourth quarter. The look in that, I mean, that liquid cooling order itself, again, just to reaffirm, that is a custom-engineered product. Developed in the standard process in which AAON supports our customers over its entire history. Just kind of reaffirming that that is not a contract-manufactured product. It was engineered to a specification from a customer, much the same as we have executed the development and execution of AAON products over its entire history. It is priced well. It is not priced at some low-margin kind of perspective. We’re executing well. We’re delivering for the customer.

We’re delivering the quality that customer expects. We continue to receive add-on orders for that product as well as developing and collaborating on other cutting-edge innovations for the data center space. All that to say, I mean, this is executing in accordance with regulations. It’s executing incredibly well and profitably for our customers. Some of that ACP near-term stuff is nothing to do with the price perspective on the product. It’s inefficiencies as we’ve kind of rolled out some of that growth.

Very clear. Thank you. I’ll pass it on.

Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Noah Kay with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Mr. Kay, your line is open.

Hey, thanks so much. Matt and Rebecca, great to be on with you for the first time and a good quarter to be on for the first time on. I want to go to your CapEx guide, lowering it to $180 million and the comments you made, Rebecca. Anything we should read or infer from that into kind of the timing of your planned capacity ramp, whether at Memphis or elsewhere in the business, that we should be thinking about?

Rebecca Thompson, CFO and Treasurer, AAON: No, I don’t think so. It’s just a slight shift from moving some amounts between Q4 to Q1. I don’t think the lowering of that CapEx is going to slow down the ramp-up of Memphis. The Memphis facility is already really built out with most of the equipment we need to do the ramp-up right now. Next year’s additional plans would just be increasing capacity for future growth. It should not impact those ramp-up plans at all.

Okay, thanks. Since Ryan teed it up, I might as well ask about the discrete one-times at ACP. Can you just give a little color on that and kind of how you lap them as we go into Q4 and 2026 here?

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah, just to start off, I want to maybe just take the ACP segment for a second and look at this from a quarter-over-quarter perspective. We saw really good strength and growth in the ACP segment. And absent the discrete items that we kind of referenced, you’d be seeing margin at around 27%, which is showing good quarter-over-quarter growth in both the throughput as well as the overall margin profile. Some of these discrete items that kind of are in question, I mean, there’s essentially operational inefficiencies, some of which are going to, or most of which will abate kind of with the optimization of the ERP, the rest of which just with some additional manufacturing process improvement. Nothing to do with pricing. The liquid cooling order is priced at very compelling levels.

As I mentioned earlier to Ryan’s question, that liquid cooling order itself is a solutions-based product, solutions-based win, was not a low-bid type situation. Priced well and really just focused on getting that execution kind of fully in order. Looking forward, we’re confident when we say the segment is at least a 30% gross margin business. Based on what we have in the backlog, based on what we have in the margin profile in the backlog, and really just focused on execution for both the Basics and AAON brands.

Yeah. Is ACP where we see the most improvement sequentially into fourth quarter to kind of help us get to that 31% that was referenced earlier, if that’s the right number for gross margin for fourth quarter?

Yeah, definitely. Definitely quarter-over-quarter, you’re going to see strong improvement. ACP definitely being a big driver of that improvement. I would say, I mean, you’re also going to see some incremental improvement within the Oklahoma segment as well, kind of as that price cost dynamic gets on the right side from the tariff impact.

Okay, perfect. Last, obviously, really strong data center orders for Basics this quarter. Great to see the increase in backlog. Can you talk a little bit about the customer mix and profile there? You mentioned liquid versus airside, but just give us a sense of the demand profile across the customer base.

Yes, pretty broad based, actually. I would say that when we look at the amount of interaction and conversation in the space right now, it is across sort of the entire profile of data center developers. Obviously, there is good strength and continued strength within the hyperscalers, but within a lot of the, I’ll say, the contract builders, the colocation providers, the NeoClouds, we are seeing strength really across the profile in the order activity and in the code activity in that space.

Excellent. Thank you. I’ll turn it over.

Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris Moore with CJS Securities. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking a couple. Yeah, maybe we’ll shift from Basics to Rooftop. Can you just talk a little bit about pricing at this point in time, the current AAON premium, and maybe just your big picture thoughts on Rooftop in 2026?

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. So from a pricing standpoint, I mean, obviously, we put on price twice this current calendar year. Early January 1, put in 3%, and then additional 6% kind of came in through the tariff surcharge. Sitting a little above 9% compounded for the year. As we look forward, we’re definitely in the midst right now of really kind of all of our analytics and kind of where cost drivers are looking as we go into 2026. No real guidance at this point on kind of what pricing actions are going to come in the near to midterm. I would say that we certainly see the price premium of AAON equipment still existing for sure kind of inside the space.

Maybe ever so slight contraction from last year to this year, but really seeing the price premium and the value proposition still being sold kind of throughout that product brand. Looking to your question more, I’ll say on the market perspective, I mean, certainly the space, it remains soft. The commercial HVAC space remains soft. As we do a lot of our checks with our sales channel partners, a lot of the commentary we’re getting is there’s actually a pretty substantial uptick in bid activity, but still soft in the overall order conversion. I say that to say that it’s a positive indicator, certainly showing there’s a lot of activity kind of brewing inside the space, but obviously in the near term, it’s not converting to actual orders. It’s not converting to new projects. When we think about what that looks like into 2026.

It kind of indicates we’re going to enter 2026 kind of in continued softness. I’d say that demand we’re seeing with that bid activity, we would look to see that sort of start converting midway through the year into sort of strengthening of the overall order cadence from a macro perspective. That aside, with that kind of as the macro driver, we continue to remain incredibly focused on some of the unique growth drivers that are sort of providing us that outperform in bookings, things like the Alpha-class air source heat pump product differentiation, really getting out in the marketplace and ensuring that we’re selling to the market and effectively communicating to the market that value proposition as well as the continued focus on that national account strategy.

We see those being the, I’ll say, the levers that are allowing us to continue outperforming from a bookings perspective against the softer macro backdrop.

Perfect. Very helpful. Maybe just to follow up back to Basics. In terms of gross margins, we’ve had lots of discussions currently and ultimately in terms of where the margins could be at the investor day. We talked about 29%-32%, a little bit below Rooftop. I’m just, again, trying to understand, is there something structural in Basics that couldn’t get to the mid-30s, or it’s just the rapid growth is going to make it difficult for a while to get to that level?

No, it’s a great question. Certainly, kind of putting it around that 30% level is really sort of setting what we see as the sort of near-term execution targets kind of within that space. From a perspective standpoint, it took AAON 30-some-odd years to really get into that mid-30% range. A lot of that was driven by really good execution around improvements around manufacturing process, coupled with, obviously, pricing competitiveness. As we start getting more and more, I’ll say, when we get the ability to really kind of get some of our production lines stable, we can really start focusing on pulling costs and putting dollars to the bottom line in those spaces. I would just say, from an expectation setting standpoint, that 30% range is really kind of where we want to keep everyone grounded.

Certainly, we’re an organization that is focused on outperforming. For us, looking at how do we keep driving better execution and really keep driving improvement of that is going to be something that is certainly front of mind as we keep progressing forward.

Got it. I appreciate it. I will leave it there.

Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Tim Wise with Baird. Please go ahead.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Hey, everybody. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. On the Oklahoma business, Matt, I mean, where are your lead times today, kind of relative to normal? And I guess as you think about kind of converting the Tulsa facility next year, from the ERP side, I guess how are you kind of communicating that to people in the channel? And how are you preparing for any sort of, I guess, kind of order pull forward that might kind of happen as a result of that implementation?

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah, no, certainly great questions. On the lead times, when we look at the Oklahoma segment, where they stand today, they’re probably sitting around 50% higher than we want them to be. Again, our focus here is really on getting that execution up, getting that volume up at that facility, and really start pulling that back down. One thing I’d say is, obviously, backlog growth is a big conversation on the Basics side of the business. On the AAON side, our big driver here is let’s get that backlog down. Let’s get that lead time kind of back in check where we want them to be, just to be able to make sure that we’re meeting the market demands appropriately. As we think about, I’ll say, kind of getting ahead of things within the ERP side, we’re certainly going to be substantially more proactive.

Again, I’ll just say lessons learned around the Longview side to make sure we get ahead of it and provide some buffer kind of in sort of what we communicate to the market to make sure we deliver and these schedules that are met with our best foot forward. That is going to definitely be part of our intentional kind of before-go-live messaging strategy ahead of a Tulsa go live. Exactly what that’s going to look like and kind of what buffer, that’s still certainly part of an operational conversation, but certainly will be something we’re looking at throughout the mid part of 2026.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay. And speaking of operations, I mean, you just, I think, hired a COO. Could you maybe talk about what kind of those responsibilities are going to be for him, in kind of maybe the near and the intermediate term, and kind of what he brings to AAON?

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. Maybe what I’ll do is I’ll start by kind of just framing a perspective here, which is we’ve been very fortunate to go through some tremendous growth, which is incredibly exciting. It’s an awesome opportunity for our organization, for our team to grow and to really thrive inside that space. As we think about AAON five years ago versus AAON today, I mean, we’ve got five facilities. We’ve got some monster growth coming out of brand new facilities. We’ve had massive expansion in Longview, strong investment in Redmond, and continued investment inside the Tulsa facility, all of that supported by strong demand. The company over the last 5 to 10 years, it’s really transformed. It’s kind of gotten a lot of legs below it and really built itself up in stature and mass.

When we think about what Roberto brings to the organization, it’s the ability to effectively manage consistency across all five facilities and drive best practice, lean manufacturing, visible manufacturing, really across the organization and get the right visibility to be able to tackle problems before they become problems. He’s got experience operating up to 23 facilities, expert in lean manufacturing, and really something that the operations team and the whole team of AAON and Basics is incredibly excited about as we look to continue capitalizing on the growth drivers in a very profitable fashion.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay. Okay. That’s great. I guess just two questions. Two kind of modeling questions. I guess first, is there any way to just quantify the free cash flow that you expect in the fourth quarter? As you kind of think about bringing on Memphis, do you have a DNA number that we should think about for AAON in 2026?

Conference Call Operator: I don’t have a quantification of the free cash flows for Q4. It should be considerably up. I mean, especially you saw it turn positive this quarter. We’re starting to, we had delays in getting some of our billings out. So we’re collecting those now in the fourth quarter. Yeah, it should be up significantly, but I don’t have a good estimate to give you just off the cuff. And then on.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay.

Conference Call Operator: Your second question about.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: MCA?

Conference Call Operator: Yeah. For 2025, we expect the year will be in the $75 million-$80 million range. We expect to see another $20 million-$25 million in 2026.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay. Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you very much.

Conference Call Operator: Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Julio Romero with Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

Good morning. This is Alex on for Julio. Thanks for taking questions.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Yeah. Just to, yeah, absolutely. Just to follow up on ERP, I know we talked a little bit about lessons learned and alluded to that, but maybe we could get a little more specific on key lessons learned from Longview that you’re applying to Memphis and maybe even what milestones you thought about before greenlighting the rollout to Memphis.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. From a lesson learned, I mean, I’ll say there’s kind of a variety of people and process sides of it, but just high level, what I would say is, some of the configuration changes and lessons learned that we’ve implemented into Longview as well as Memphis is streamlining some of the automation that can be provided in process flow inside the ERP that wasn’t fully implemented, I’ll say, kind of on the initial go-live that caused too much manual interaction that slowed down some of the production velocity. We really kind of streamlined some of those processes, and we’ve really greatly enhanced the amount of hands-on training within the system.

I think a lesson learned is a lot of training as part of the go-live, but a lot of it was more classroom setting versus getting really more live hands-on how you would live in the system on a day-to-day basis. A lot of that kind of was lessons learned out of the Longview site. Really, that was informing the kind of go-live strategy within the Memphis site. Memphis has been live for about a week now and really been operating in a smooth fashion, albeit lower volumes than what we have in Longview, but kind of on a go-live and a ramp-up perspective, behaving very well.

Great. Thanks for clarifying. I think going hand in hand with streamlining and ERP work might be automating with AI. I was curious if you could touch on any sort of work with that.

Yeah. I mean, certainly, as a manufacturer that greatly supports the explosive growth of the data center investment around AI, it certainly also informs kind of how we leverage AI as an organization. There are a lot of things we’re looking at. I mean, everything from how we analyze warranty claims for trends, how we look at predictive analytics around unit performance. There are a lot of sort of projects going on, but certainly, as time progresses, AI will become more and more relevant kind of in our strategy. What I would say now is we have a lot of things that are more in the sandbox and planning phase as we look at how to leverage AI, both from an operations perspective, but also from a value driver for our customers’ perspective.

Great. Thanks for the color. That’s all from us.

Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Brent Thielman with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Hey, great. Thanks. Yeah, I guess question, Matt, just as you peel back kind of the layers here within the Rooftop business, your thoughts on what seems to be working in terms of the share capture strategy. I heard you comment on the national accounts growth. Maybe how that informs how that kind of strategy is working and anything else in and around that.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. To maybe peel it back in kind of two pieces, I think when we look at what we’ll call the more transactional type orders, the standard kind of in-market orders, we see that softness kind of that you hear across the overall commercial HVAC space on the more everyday type orders. We see that kind of in our order cadence as well. When we look at where the growth drivers have been, I’d say two things that are big differentiators for us that have allowed us to outperform in bookings has been the Alpha-class air source heat pump. From an innovation and sort of a product differentiation standpoint, continue to see that getting some good traction inside the space.

As we really have a best-in-class solution that operates in sort of your southern climates all the way to your low-temp climates with sort of the more Alpha-class extreme program. That has definitely been a driver that’s sort of allowing that differentiation of product to really capture the hearts and souls of a lot of organizations. It really aligns well with that national account customer. When we think about national account customers looking to reduce carbon footprints with portfolios of facilities all across the country, that Alpha-class product definitely is a huge conversation starter and a differentiator kind of inside the space. With the three tiers of that product, we rolled that out in a way that provided solid pricing points, really depending on kind of what the market is from an environmental perspective.

We do not need to go all the way to the Alpha-class extreme, low ambient air source heat pump if I am delivering a product in Florida. When we look at some of the northern states, the solutions that we have in terms of efficiency, performance points, and cost points really cannot be beat inside the marketplace. That has really allowed a broad conversation in that national account space, really around air source heat pumps, decarbonization, to be able to provide a solution across the portfolio that really cannot be met by anyone else in the marketplace. A lot of that has been some of that conversation and growth in both sides of the national accounts as well as just transactional air source heat pumps.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Got it. And then on the Basics side, whether you wanted to talk around the orders this quarter, Matt, or kind of the immediate pipeline, I mean, one of the objectives here is to try and get into maybe more of the standardized products. So I guess question one is, are you starting to see those orders come through? Is it far too early for that? And two, maybe just the diversification of customers that are reflected in these orders.

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. And just to maybe put a clarifying point, when we look at the productization strategy, I wouldn’t say we’re going to a standard product by any stretch. What I would say is really just envision that as the same solution or the same mindset around how AAON goes to market with a software-driven, semi-custom, still very much value-driven product, just in a little bit more of a walls-off platform that provides some more efficiencies in how we go to market. Just want to kind of clarify that I wouldn’t really go to sort of a standardized product definition. It still very much is highly configurable, value-driven solutions. I would say we’re certainly starting to get into quote activity on those products. We’re in the early innings really on getting that into the marketplace.

Certainly out there having the conversations, but that backlog growth that we see right now, that is reflective of the historic solution-based, the custom products that Basics brand has built itself on since its formation. Customer-wise, I mean, there’s obviously a couple of large orders that exist inside that sort of backlog growth, but I would say there’s also a spattering of other, smaller customers kind of in there. There is definitely a couple of big hitters in that backlog growth, but there’s also diversity in the customer base in what we’re growing right now.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay. Last one. Obviously, a big chunk of orders here is to fill the Memphis capacity that comes on, though I think just based on past conversations, Matt, you sort of want to be deliberate about that. Work through any inefficiencies as that facility ramps up. I guess the question I have is, do you have what you want for now, or are you comfortable continuing to push and capture more orders for that facility even as it hasn’t ramped up quite yet?

Matt Tobolski, CEO and President, AAON: Yeah. That’s a great question. I mean, I think there’s definitely good backlog sitting in there right now to help ramp that facility in a measured perspective. There also is some headroom in there, especially as we get into the second half of next year to start putting in some more demand into that facility. There is room to definitely keep putting orders in there as we get more and more traction. The facility as it stands today, just kind of maybe perspective, it has the ability to have seven production lines put in place. We’re sitting at three today. We’re working to add a couple more. There certainly is all of that. Five to seven production lines are not fully booked out. There is room as we keep growing it out to keep ramping up production at that facility.

I would definitely be thinking about that from a booking cadence for orders that would be coming in for start delivery in the back half of next year.

Tim Wise, Analyst, Baird: Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Conference Call Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the management team for closing remarks.

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us on today’s call. If anyone has any questions over the coming days and weeks, please feel free to reach out to myself. Have a great rest of the day, and we look forward to speaking with you in the future. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

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