Earnings call transcript: Alamo Group Q3 2025 misses EPS, stock falls

Alamo Group Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings with a notable revenue increase but missed earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The company's EPS came in at $2.34, falling short of the forecasted $2.66, marking a 12.03% negative surprise. Despite a revenue beat, with actual figures at $420 million versus the expected $407.45 million, the market reacted negatively, sending the stock down 4.12% to close at $173.14.

Key Takeaways

• Alamo Group's Q3 2025 EPS missed expectations by 12.03%.
• Revenue exceeded forecasts, reaching $420 million, a 5% increase year-over-year.
• Stock price declined by 4.12% following the earnings announcement.
• Operational inefficiencies impacted net income, down 3% from the previous year.
• The company remains optimistic about long-term growth and strategic acquisitions.

Company Performance

Alamo Group's overall performance in Q3 2025 showed mixed results. While the company managed to increase its net sales by 5% compared to the same period last year, adjusted net income fell by 3%, reflecting operational challenges. The company's strategic focus on product innovation and acquisitions, such as the completion of Rengomatic in Q2 2025, underscores its commitment to growth despite current hurdles.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $420 million, up 5% year-over-year
• Earnings per share: $2.34, below the forecast of $2.66
• Adjusted net income: $28 million, down 3% from Q3 2024
• Adjusted EBITDA: $55 million, representing 13% of net sales

Earnings vs. Forecast

Alamo Group's actual earnings per share of $2.34 fell short of the expected $2.66, resulting in a 12.03% earnings surprise. This marks a significant deviation from forecasts, highlighting ongoing operational challenges. In contrast, the company surpassed revenue expectations, achieving a 3.08% positive surprise with $420 million in actual revenue against a forecast of $407.45 million.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings report, Alamo Group's stock fell by 4.12%, closing at $173.14. This decline reflects investor concerns over the EPS miss and its implications for future profitability. The stock's performance remains within its 52-week range, with a high of $233.29 and a low of $157.07, indicating room for potential recovery as the company addresses operational inefficiencies.

Outlook & Guidance

Alamo Group projects moderate organic growth supplemented by mergers and acquisitions. The company aims for long-term sales growth of over 10% and improved operating income margins. Despite current challenges, management remains confident in achieving these targets, supported by a healthy backlog and diverse product portfolio.

Executive Commentary

CEO Robert Hero emphasized the company's strategic focus, stating, "We believe these targets are achievable and will demonstrate our leadership within the markets we compete." He highlighted the company's strong cash position and intention to pursue acquisitions, saying, "Our primary use of cash will be aimed at acquisitions."

Risks and Challenges

• Ongoing production inefficiencies during facility consolidation
• Weakness in vegetation management markets, particularly in tree care and agriculture
• Potential tariff impacts on cost structures
• Cyclical nature of industrial and vegetation markets
• Macroeconomic pressures affecting municipal and contractor spending

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about margin improvement strategies and the impact of tariffs on operations. Management detailed plans for operational efficiency and addressed the cyclical nature of its markets, providing insights into how these factors might influence future performance.

Full transcript - Alamo Group Inc (ALG) Q3 2025:

Conference Operator: Welcome to the Alamo Group Third Quarter 2025 conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Edward Rizzuti, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Edward Rizzuti, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations, Alamo Group: Thank you. By now, you should have all received a copy of the press release. However, if anyone is missing a copy and would like to receive one, please contact us at 212-827-3746, and we will send you a release and make sure you are on the company's distribution list. There will be a replay of the call, which will begin one hour after the call and run for one week. The replay can be accessed by dialing 1-877-344-7529 with the passcode 5234040. Additionally, the call is being webcast on the company's website at www.alamogroup.com, and a replay will be available for 60 days. On the line with me today are Robert Hero, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Agnes Kamps, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Management will make some opening remarks, and then we will open up the line for your questions.

During the call today, management may reference certain non-GAAP numbers in their remarks. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP results to applicable GAAP numbers are included in the attachments to our earnings release. Before turning the call over to Robert, I would like to make a few comments about forward-looking statements. We will be making forward-looking statements today that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results.

Among those factors which could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: adverse economic conditions, which could lead to a reduction in overall market demand, supply chain disruptions, labor constraints, competition, weather, seasonality, currency-related issues, geopolitical events, and other risk factors listed from time to time in the company's SEC reports. The company does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein, which speaks only as of this date. I would now like to introduce Robert Hero. Robert, please go ahead.

Robert Hero, President and Chief Executive Officer, Alamo Group: Thank you, Ed. I'd like to thank everyone for joining our third quarter earnings conference call. We appreciate your continued interest in the Alamo Group. Before we get started, I'd like to take a moment to say how excited I am to be part of such a great company, to have the opportunity to lead it through our next chapter of growth. The Alamo Group has some of the most talented and passionate employees, a portfolio of high-quality, purpose-built products that are loved by its operators, brands that are leaders in their respective markets, and a business model that is highly cash-generative. In addition, a key pillar of the company's business model is its strategic positioning in attractive end markets, including reliable municipal and contractor spending on infrastructure maintenance and public works, with additional upside in other end markets such as tree care and land management.

In my view, it's a really exciting time to join and be part of the Alamo Group as we shape its future and continue to create value for investors, employees, our customers, and our operators. Overall, the results for the third quarter were mixed, with continued strong performance in our Industrial Equipment Division and continued weakness in the Vegetation Management Division. Let me start by sharing a few highlights for the quarter. Net sales were $420 million, up 5% from the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted net income was $28 million, down 3% compared to adjusted net income of $29 million in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $55 million, or 13% of net sales, compared to $55 million, or 14% of net sales, in the third quarter of 2024.

Operating cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $102 million, or 116% of net income. While I'm not pleased with the results, I am optimistic and confident in the future performance of the company and the opportunities ahead. I'll turn the call over to Agnes to review our financial results in detail. When she's finished, I'll come back and share thoughts on a number of items, including a deeper look into the performance of each of our divisions, our go-forward strategy, and some thoughts on capital allocation. Agnes?

Agnes Kamps, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Alamo Group: Thank you, Robert. Good morning, everyone. Net sales for Third Quarter of 2025 were $420 million, up 4.7%, including organic growth of 3.4% compared to the Third Quarter of 2024. Gross profit for the Third Quarter of 2025 was $101.7 million, up 0.8% compared to the Third Quarter of 2024. Gross margin for the Third Quarter of 2025 was 24.2%, down 90 basis points compared to the Third Quarter of 2024. The degradation in gross margin was primarily due to unforeseen production inefficiencies related to the consolidation of manufacturing facilities in the Vegetation Management Division and due to tariff costs in both divisions. Regarding the production inefficiencies in the Vegetation Management Division, we expect these to continue through the fourth quarter and into the first quarter before we start to realize the expected benefits.

Regarding tariff costs, during the Third Quarter, we raised prices further to mitigate the impact of tariffs going forward. In addition, we are continuing to focus on a variety of supply chain initiatives to reduce costs and manage our supplier base. Selling, general, and administrative expense, or SG&A expense, for the Third Quarter was $59.9 million, up 5.6% from the Third Quarter of 2024. SG&A expense in the Third Quarter of 2025 included $3.3 million related to the CEO transition, acquisition, and integration costs. Excluding these items, our SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales in the Third Quarter of 2025 would have been slightly lower than the Third Quarter in 2024. Interest expense for the Third Quarter of 2025 was $3.9 million, down from $4.9 million in the Third Quarter of 2024. The reduction in interest expense was due to lower average outstanding debt.

Interest income for Third Quarter was $1.5 million, up from $0.6 million in the Third Quarter of 2024 due to higher average cash balances. For the nine-month period ended September 30th, 2025, our effective income tax rate was 25.3%, which was higher than the effective income tax rate for the nine-month period ended September 30th, 2024, and the full year 2024. However, the 2025 effective tax rate of 25.3% is in line with our current and long-term expectations. Adjusted net income for the Third Quarter of 2025 was $28.2 million, down slightly from adjusted net income of $28.6 million for the Third Quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share on a fully diluted basis for the Third Quarter of 2025 was $2.34 compared to $2.38 for the Third Quarter of 2024. Now I'll share some comments regarding the results for each of the divisions.

Net sales in the Industrial Equipment Division for the third quarter of 2025 were $247 million, representing an increase of 17%, or 14.5% organic growth compared to the third quarter of 2024. This performance reflects another record quarter for the Industrial Equipment Division, with strong sales across all groups. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales for the third quarter of 2025 was 15.5% compared to 15.7% for the third quarter of 2024. Net sales in the Vegetation Management Division for the third quarter of 2025 were $173.1 million, a decrease of 9% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The decrease in net sales reflected persistent weakness in certain end markets such as tree care and agriculture and some production challenges associated with our consolidation activities, as previously noted.

Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales for the third quarter of 2025 was 9.7% compared to 11.5% for the third quarter of 2024. Moving on to the balance sheet, we maintained a strong financial position and flexibility to support ongoing initiatives and future investments. At September 30, 2025, total assets were $1,595 million, up $113.6 million from the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by higher cash and cash equivalents. Accounts receivable decreased $21.4 million to $335.2 million, reflecting an improvement in day sales outstanding versus prior year third quarter. Inventory increased slightly by $6.2 million to $378.2 million to support growth in the Industrial Equipment Division. However, day's inventory on hand improved year over year. Accounts payable increased $32 million to $129.3 million at quarter end.

As a result, cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $102.4 million, a healthy conversion of 116% of net income. Cash used in investing activities for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, was $41.9 million and reflects cash used in acquisition of Rengomatic and $25.4 million used for capital expenditures. The increase in capital expenditure compared to the same period in prior year was primarily due to expansion of one of our manufacturing activities in the Industrial Equipment Division. Cash used in financing activities for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, was $23.6 million, reflecting repayments of principal on our long-term debt and dividend paid. As of September 30, 2025, our total debt was $209.4 million. In addition, as of September 30, 2025, we had $244.8 million in cash on the balance sheet and $397 million available under revolving facility.

To conclude, I would like to emphasize our commitment to delivering long-term value to our shareholders. We are pleased that our board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. As we move forward, we will remain focused on driving growth and optimization of our operations. Thank you. I'll turn it back over to Robert.

Robert Hero, President and Chief Executive Officer, Alamo Group: Thank you, Agnes. Let me start by providing a little more color in the operating performance for each of our divisions. First, the Industrial Equipment Division. As Agnes mentioned, the performance in the division continued to be quite strong, with net sales up 17% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The third quarter was the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year double-digit net sales growth for the Industrial Division. Net sales in each of our excavators and vacuum trucks, snow, and sweepers and safety crews performed well during the quarter. The net sales growth of 17% was due to several factors, including price, market growth, market share gains, and the acquisition of Rengomatic. I'd like to share some thoughts on each. Regarding price, during the year, many of the business groups executed fairly typical annual price increases.

In addition, many of our businesses took price again more recently, as Agnes mentioned, to mitigate the impact of tariffs. As it relates to tariffs, our aim in both divisions will be to pass these costs along to customers and to continue availing ourselves of applicable tariff exemptions. In tandem with price increases, we continue to focus on local sourcing and supplier diversification where appropriate. Regarding our core end markets, they continue to be resilient. Our municipal and contractor exposure to end markets such as infrastructure, public works, and utilities generates good, solid long-term growth. To help put this in perspective, state and local spending over the past nearly 20 quarters has grown at a healthy compound annual rate of approximately 5%. Regarding market share, we continue to demonstrate our leadership position in wind share in certain businesses.

Our teams have been doing great work innovating our products and partnering with good dealers and customers. Let me share a quick example of what we mean related to product innovation. We recently showcased our new non-CDL vacuum truck at the Utility Expo in Louisville. This product was intentionally designed to accomplish several goals with a high level of standardization. The product can be built either as a hydro excavator or as a sewer combo cleaner. Additionally, both modules will fit into a container for economic international shipping where they can be upfitted on a chassis in-country. This is a great example of how we can attract new customers and penetrate deeper with existing customers through product innovation. You'll continue to hear more about product innovation as a theme going forward. Lastly, as you know, we completed the acquisition of Rengomatic in the second quarter of this year.

While small, it contributed to the year-over-year growth in net sales. As a reminder, Rengomatic produces trailer-mounted vacuum equipment. The addition of this type of product nicely rounds out our product offering in this attractive end market and continues to strengthen our leadership position. As I mentioned, the Industrial Equipment Division has delivered double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters. Looking forward, however, we do not expect that double-digit pace of growth to continue. We expect it on an organic basis to return to more moderate but still attractive levels. During the third quarter, net orders were down year over year, resulting in a book-to-bill of less than one. That book-to-bill reflects some lumpiness in the sequential order pattern, some intentional reduction in our lead times through improved manufacturing throughput, and a little bit of cooling in the end markets.

The early order pattern in the fourth quarter has started off in a reasonable position, and we have a healthy level of backlog in the division. Overall, we're pleased with the Industrial Equipment Division's performance. Now let's discuss the Vegetation Management Division. As Agnes mentioned, the performance in our Vegetation Management Division continued to experience weakness. Net sales were down 9% compared to the third quarter of 2024. Specifically, net sales in each of our tree care, government mowing, and agricultural groups were down. The net sales decline of 9% was due to several factors, including the end markets and challenges with the consolidation of two of our facilities, partly offset by pricing. Regarding pricing, similar to the Industrial Equipment Division, many of the Vegetation Management businesses increased price during the year and more recently increased price again to mitigate the impact of tariffs.

Regarding our core end markets, like land management, agriculture, and tree care, they continued to show weakness, and as a result, sales volumes were lower. Regarding the consolidation of our manufacturing facilities, I'd like to highlight a few items. Recall, we launched an initiative in the second half of 2024 to consolidate various facilities. The objective of the consolidations is simply to remove fixed costs, make them more productive, particularly given where we are in the end market cycle. These are absolutely the right initiatives. We made some progress in prior quarters. That progress was primarily centered around the winding down of operations in the originating facilities and a reduction in workforce. The progress during the third quarter was a bit more challenging. Those challenges centered around production activities in the manufacturing locations to which the operations were moved. These are complex products and complex processes.

These types of consolidations simply take time. In addition, these activities were occurring while the end markets continued to decline. Both our net sales and operating margins were impacted in the quarter. As we sit today, we expect to make progress on these initiatives going forward, but it will take one or two more quarters before operations in those specific facilities will normalize and yield the full operating efficiencies we anticipate. Now, at the same time, net orders in the Vegetation Management Division in the third quarter of 2025 increased double digits on a percentage basis compared to the same quarter in 2024, and the book-to-bill was a solid one. The early order pattern in the fourth quarter is also off to a reasonable start. In addition, if the Fed continues to reduce interest rates, it's possible we'll see stabilization or improvement in the end markets in 2026.

Overall, we're not pleased with the Vegetation Management Division's performance in the quarter, but are confident we'll finish the consolidation activity and drive margin improvement as originally planned. I'd now like to share some comments regarding the broad framework of our long-term strategy. There are four pillars of the strategy in which we'll focus and devote resources. One, people and culture. Two, commercial excellence. Three, operational excellence. Four, acquisitions. Let me share some color on each. First, as it relates to people and culture, we intend to continue building on the good work that's been done around developing a safe and engaging work environment, investing in our future leaders, and developing a mindset of continuous improvement. With a truly engaged workforce, we believe we can outperform over the long run.

Second, as it relates to commercial excellence, our emphasis will be on winning through product innovation and catering to the needs of our customers and the users of our products. In addition, expect emphasis on higher margin profit pools such as parts and service. Third, as it relates to operational excellence, we intend to drive margin improvement through a more efficient, lean-oriented manufacturing platform and a more cost-effective, high-quality-focused supply chain. Lastly, acquisitions. Let me address this and share some thoughts in the context of a broader capital allocation framework. First, our primary use of cash will be aimed at acquisitions. In general, our interest will be more focused on tuck-in-type acquisitions that can be accretive to organic revenue growth and even to margins, executed at attractive multiples in end markets that are non-discretionary, less cyclical, and close to our core, have good management teams and are market leaders.

This does not rule out larger transactions. There may be unique opportunities for larger deals that have a great strategic fit. As Agnes highlighted, we have cash on the balance sheet and capacity to use leverage in a responsible manner. Our pipeline of targets is growing. We are working to continue the flow of good opportunities and are spending our time prioritizing them. Simultaneously, we will continue to invest in capital projects, allocating these dollars between revenue-generating projects, cost-reduction projects, back-office areas to support long-term growth, which will be needed, and various maintenance items. Capital expenditures in some years may be more or less than others, but on average, we should be running around 2% of sales. In addition, we expect to continue with the dividend, which today is running around $15 million annually or $0.30 per share per quarter.

Lastly, recall that in 2024, the board approved a $50 million share buyback program. While this program is still authorized, we are very mindful of a growing and exciting M&A pipeline and the limited float of stock we have today. Before I conclude, I'd like to share with you a few thoughts on our financial targets. It's important to understand these are long-term through-the-cycle targets. First, sales growth of 10% plus, including the effects of acquisitions. Second, adjusted operating income margins of around 15%. Third, adjusted EBITDA margins of around 18-20%. Finally, fourth, free cash flow as a percentage of net income of 100%. We believe these targets are achievable and will demonstrate our leadership within the markets we compete. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future.

In summary, I'd like to say that I'm incredibly excited about the road ahead, confident in our ability to unlock the full potential of the Alamo Group. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the lines. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Chris Moore with CJS Securities. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking a couple. Maybe we can start on the vegetation market. So it sounds like we'll be improving, but still challenged Q4 into Q1.

I guess my question is, can you get back above 10% operating margins on vegetation without meaningful revenue growth at this stage? Yeah, we definitely can. Let me emphasize a few points that we made in the prepared remarks, and then I'll provide a little additional color. First thing I would say is that we believe we can get to operating margins, adjusted operating margins of 15%, adjusted EBITDA margins of 20%. I think there's a couple of steps along the way. First is, as we get the production efficiencies improved over the next quarter or two, we should see a 2, 3, 400 basis point improvement on that basis alone. In addition, we'll pick up some volume leverage as those markets stabilize and/or recover, hopefully towards the back half of 2026.

In addition, I think there is 200-300 basis points of improved opportunity on both sides of the house with respect to procurement savings, improved parts and service as a percentage of the total business, and overall lean efficiencies. That was a little bit of a long-winded way of saying, definitely, yes, we can get those margins back. I am confident it will take us one or two quarters to drive those efficiencies in the vegetation business in those specific facilities that are undergoing the consolidations. Got it. Very helpful. Maybe for my follow-up, just industrial orders. Seem okay, but moderating a bit. Within the segment, are there specific areas that are a little more challenged and others that are staying strong? Any insight or color you could give to the industrial segment outlook. Definitely.

First thing I'd say is, on a year-to-date basis, industrial orders are still up. They're up single digits. We're generally pretty pleased with that. In the quarter, as you noted, they were down. I would point to a couple of the groups. First, within excavators and vacuum, net orders down in the quarter, but they are lumpy. If you recall, you go back to the second quarter of this year, you would see a fairly significant, robust order pattern. It came off of those highs in the third quarter, but again, on a year-to-date basis, that group is up double digits. Snow is also down in the quarter. Here, not only can the order part be lumpy, it's lumpy on an annual basis. Take, for example, parts of the Canadian market.

Certain regions in the Canadian market issue contracts to service providers on an annual basis every several years. In 2025, only one of those contracts was given out in this particular region. We have several contracts being awarded between the fourth and the first. I give that color to demonstrate that not only is it lumpy from quarter to quarter, but it can be lumpy from year to year in the snow division. Sweepers and safety were up and are up substantially on a year-to-date basis. In the aggregate, they're down. There's a little bit of lumpiness going on here. There's some improved manufacturing throughput, which is bringing our lead times back into healthy states. That's something we feel good about. In some parts of the industrial business, there's a little bit of cooling in the end markets.

We reported 17% growth in sales in the industrial segment. That's really robust growth that just over the long term probably will be hard to do. You'll see those end markets cooling a bit in 2026. Still healthy, still attractive, still less cyclical, but cooling a bit. Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you, Robert. You bet. The next question comes from Greg Burns with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead. Good morning. Can you just talk about the state of some of the channels within your vegetation management segment, particularly ag and forestry and tree care? How do the inventory levels sit? Are you seeing any slowdown or headwinds in the ag market given some of the trade headwinds that we're seeing lately? Yeah, so a couple of comments. First, I would say we're pretty pleased with the order pattern. On a year-to-date basis, we're up 11%.

In the quarter, we were up 12%. A lot of that is coming from North America ag. At the highest level, pleased with the order pattern. When you then break it down into some of the segments, I would say that tree care is a space that we saw a little bit of weakness in the quarter. Recall that within tree care, there are subsegments. It's really the industrial subsegment within tree care that has experienced some softness. In this space, think about these products being really large, very expensive products. These are products that would cost a million dollars or thereabouts. We're seeing some of the customers just being hesitant at this time, placing those orders, still looking out given the uncertainty in 2026 with respect to tariffs and generally the macroeconomic situation. There's a little bit of softness there.

There's a little bit of softness in the government mowing. Some of those customers, DOT customers, etc., are a little bit hesitant on placing orders. In the aggregate, feel pretty good about the order pattern. When we talk to customers, customer sentiment generally, as we look forward to 2026, is somewhat neutral to still a little bit cautious. Inventory levels generally across the division are in a reasonable spot. There's nothing unusual there. Order cancellations are in line with historic averages. Generally speaking, we feel pretty good, recognizing it feels like we're certainly during the year have continued to cycle down with the end markets, but hoping that we're at the bottom here with some stabilization and maybe some growth later in 2026. Okay.

The margins on the industrial segment are down a little bit year over year, but lower than where they were in the first half of the year. Maybe tariffs are a little bit of that. What are the primary drivers behind the decline in margin on the industrial side of the business? Yeah, there is a little bit of noise, but it really is mostly margin. Sorry, mostly tariffs. Recall, none in the first quarter, a little in the second quarter, and they picked up in the third quarter. When we think about tariffs, particularly as we look forward to 2026, you should think about tariffs as somewhere in the order of magnitude of a little less than 1% of sales. I will give you an approximate level of what we think tariffs will be going forward. A little bit less than that in 2025.

They spiked up a little bit in the third quarter. Outside of that, nothing really unusual. That figure that I just gave you excludes any impact from the recent news around tariffs on truck chassis. We're still looking to work with our chassis suppliers to understand what that impact might be. Hopefully, that gives you a good sense as to where tariffs will trend. I think the other thing that's important is, as we mentioned, as Agnes mentioned, we did pass price along in the quarter, not enough to cover those tariffs completely. We'll continue to work to do so along with managing our supply base, etc. That really was the noise in the industrial division in the quarter. Okay, thank you. The next question comes from Mike Schulze with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you.

The margin goals that you outlined, Robert, I think they're a bit of a step up from maybe the previous CEO's goals, which were also reasonably good goals. Do you have any sense, Robert, as to how long it might take for you to get to the 18% EBITDA? And are there any truly major transformations that have to take place to get there, either a large M&A deal that has very high margins or something that we are thinking of that might help close that little gap there? Yeah. Good question, Mike. I think about it in steps and in phases. The first phase here is we want to return the vegetation division margins to where they were, working through some of these challenges around the consolidations. We think that will take one or two quarters.

That alone will return a couple of hundred basis points to that particular division. Secondly, I think a little bit of tailwind on the sales side, particularly in that division, will be helpful and should generate another couple of hundred basis points of margin improvement. As we look through the cycle with a little bit of tailwind, I can see 400-500 basis points of improvement in the vegetation business alone, which on a weighted average basis will contribute a couple of hundred basis points to the consolidated operating margins. From there, I think there are 200-300 or 400 basis points of margin improvement that will come from procurement savings. We have several major initiatives underway right now to drive those savings. It will come from just a bit improvement in our parts and service as a percentage of the total mix of the company.

I think that has probably fallen off just a bit over the last year or two. It is something we expect to put resources behind. Then a little bit, another 100 or so basis points of margin improvement from really driving and shaping this continuous improvement mindset, this lean manufacturing culture, if you will. I think we can get to 15% operating, 18-20% EBITDA margins over the next couple of years. We do need a little bit of tailwind on the vegetation side to get there, though. Perhaps not to the extent of a full recovery that we saw back in, I think it was 2021, early part of 2022, but we need a little bit of tailwind to get there. Does that help? Absolutely. Thank you so much. Maybe to follow up on that, it has been a few months since you have been at Alamo.

I guess, what have you done so far to push the company towards those goals? And maybe more broadly, have you changed anything major, just more in general, about how Alamo runs on a day-to-day basis, or is that still to come here? It has been a busy first couple of months, for sure. As I said in my opening remarks, I could not be more proud to be working with the team that we have here. We have got a great, great leadership team. We have got great brands, products. I have talked to a lot of our customers. They really love our product. The number one thing that our customers say that is important to them is the trust and the relationship and the partnership that they have with OEMs, and that is really strong with the company. I am super excited about that.

A lot of the first 60 days or thereabouts so far has been getting to know the team and understanding the business and the rhythm and getting to speak with our customers. In terms of changes, I would say one thing that was underway that we are pushing further, maybe we're accelerating it, is the move from a bit more decentralization to centralization in certain key areas like procurement, supply chain, IT. We're shifting that to a much stronger centralization mode, if you will. That's critical in order for us to be able to deliver the procurement savings that Agnes and I and the other leaders in the organization see. There's a significant amount of opportunity that we're pretty excited to go after. We've engaged with some advisors to help us in that, to accelerate that.

I think the other area that I'm not sure if it's a change or not, but it's definitely an emphasis is around M&A. As Agnes highlighted, we've got significant cash on the balance sheet. We've got a significant amount available to us in our revolver. We could go up in terms of our leverage to two, two and a half times or something thereabouts would be very reasonable. We've got a significant amount of dry powder. Ed and the team have been building this pipeline of really rich targets that we're pretty excited about. Nothing we can share right now, but super excited around the M&A opportunity. I think if we can do one or two deals a year, as I said, they're more likely to be tuck-in type acquisitions. Let's say you're talking $100 million-$150 million of revenue a year.

You're talking somewhere around $20 million-$30 million of EBITDA that we could acquire. That's pretty significant earnings growth that we can generate. Of course, we've got the cash to pay down the debt and keep it within a reasonable zone. One, getting to know the team and getting a good feel for the rhythm of the business. Two, working to centralize some things, moving away from the decentralization mode that we've had in the past. Three, a really big emphasis around exciting M&A. Great. Thanks for that, Robert. That really is maybe my last question. That's on the growth rate on the top line that you outlined, the 10% growth. It sounds like if you got tuck-ins kind of in mind, then maybe you're thinking about a few percent there of the overall 10% top line.

But then I guess that kind of leads mid-to-digit or even a little bit higher than that on the organic side. What can happen there, obviously, besides some Americas that have been down coming back, but what can really drive that after everything is kind of back to normal again? Could innovation really mean 5% organic growth that you did not have before? How much opportunity do you think there is to innovate in a lot of these end markets these days? Yeah. I am really, really excited about what we can do with product innovation. We just showcased a lot of our products to our board. We just came off a number of expositions. Really, really excited about it. Let me outline how I think about that 10% plus figure that I just shared in the prepared remarks. Keep in mind, we just printed 4.7% growth.

We've had vegetation business down for two to three years running. That 10% plus may be a little bit conservative, but we're going to start there for the next couple of years. I break it down loosely into two buckets. On an organic basis, I think about it in terms of 1-2% growth from pricing, maybe a little bit more depending on which way inflation goes. I think about it as maybe 2-3% from end markets. Certainly, that's conservative from where we've been in the industrial space today, but that would be aggressive compared to where we've been on the vegetation space. 2-3% there. Then maybe another 1-2% in terms of market share growth from market share.

That growth from market share is going to be driven through product innovation and really catering to our customers and winning by loving our customers. Now, that may add up to a slightly bit more than 5%, but that's how I think about that organic piece today. Then I think about 5% plus from M&A. It doesn't take much to get there. It takes one deal roughly at $100 million of sales to hit that number. I think that's roughly 6% growth. If I break it down somewhat equally between those two parts, and I think you got a healthy 10% growth. If we can deliver 10% growth constant over the next four or five years, I think that's fantastic. I'd like to think we'll do better, particularly when we get that M&A engine really humming.

If we can get to the point where we're doing one or two deals of that size a year, then you're really cooking with gasoline. Great. Robert, I appreciate all these details. I'll pass it along. Thank you. Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Migg Dobray with Baird. Please go ahead. Morning. Appreciate all the detail that's been covered already. Just to maybe put a finer point, when we're thinking about the fourth quarter, can you give us directionally a sense for how things are supposed to be trending relative to what you've done in Q3 revenue and margin? Yeah, definitely.

I think if you look at the company's performance historically over the last 10 years or thereabouts, and you kick out some of the extraordinary growth periods around COVID, you would typically see that the first and the fourth quarter are seasonally the lower quarters. I think you'll see that this year. As you move from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, I would expect sales to decline somewhere in the order of magnitude of about 4-5% sequentially. That's seasonally driven. That would be point one. Point two is when you look at that or you run that math on the sales decline from third to fourth, I would expect that decrement to drop through to gross profit somewhere around 30% or thereabouts, a little bit north of what the gross margins are today.

I think that will put you in a good spot as to where the fourth quarter is likely to shape. I would not expect improvement in the vegetation business moving from third to fourth just yet. I think those improvements will start to come in the later parts of the fourth quarter. Seasonal adjustment down from third to fourth with a roughly 30% drop through gross profit with constant or with no dramatic improvements in vegetation margins. That is how I would characterize the fourth quarter. Yeah, that is helpful. When we are thinking about industrial, I guess the way I am reading your comment here is that we should not be thinking improvement in margins sequentially. If anything, it might actually be down relative to Q3. That is correct? I think you got to, first of all, those comments I just gave were for the consolidated Alamo.

I made some comments with respect to vegetation, but I was weaving that in to describe what I thought the consolidated, what we think the consolidated results will be for the fourth quarter with a direction that we would head. To your question within industrial, I think there are a lot of moving parts. One is you might see a slight sequential decline. With a sequential decline, you're going to see inverse leverage on the fixed cost. You will see compression there. At the same time, you might see a little bit of offset as we launched price increases late in the third quarter to impact tariffs. We will have a full effect of that in the fourth quarter, whereas we only had a partial effect in the third quarter.

Some of these things may offset, but from a long-term kind of run rate, I would not expect major movements in industrial margins from third to fourth in either direction. No, I understand that. Really, the reason why I am asking the question, the margin in industrial was different than I think all of us were modeling. And you did explain that tariffs had a role to play here. It is just not clear to me in terms of the, from a near-term perspective, as to what the impact of some of the offsets pricing that you talked about are going to be. I mean, we used to talk about the exit run rate for the segment to be 15% operating margin. And that clearly seems to be off the table.

The question is, are we really looking at 12, 13 operating margin in the fourth quarter, or can we actually get something that's a little bit better than that? Yeah, I think we're in that zip code in the fourth quarter. I think as we look to 2026, we'll start to drive those improvements in operating margin that I highlighted. I think in the very near term, as we move from third to fourth, we're in that zip code that you described. Very well. Maybe a clarification. When you mentioned 100 basis points of sales as impact from tariffs into 2026, presumably that is a gross number. That is before any mitigation or offsets. Help us maybe understand that.

Also, the way I'm kind of thinking about it is that the year-over-year impact is going to be disproportionately tilted towards the first half of the year. As far as offsets, how do you think that's going to start flowing through? Again, is this something that can be done relatively quickly, or do we need to adjust our expectations for the full year 2026 and then maybe hope that things get better in 2027? Yeah. Good question. Let me try to frame it a little bit and then just keep me in the fairway. A little bit less than 1% of sales would be the expectation, the gross expectation for tariffs in 2026 before considering any impact from the recently announced tariffs on truck chassis. We're still working through suppliers on that.

As you move from the third to the fourth quarter of this year, I think it'll be largely neutral. We saw a bump or a spike in the third quarter. I think that was just ramping up. We then launched price increases late in the quarter to mitigate that. I think going forward, we should probably be a little less than covering the tariffs moving into 2026. A smidge of margin degradation from tariffs as we look forward. I can say at the same time, we're doing some pretty significant work around procurement and the supply chain, making sure we get our fair share of the ag exemptions that are available to us. We continue to work those. We continue to work with suppliers. We've got a significant team ramping up to drive procurement savings.

So I would not expect from 2025 to 2026 any significant margin degradation from tariffs alone. Yes, in the first part of the year, you're going to see a little bit more of that because there was none in the first quarter of 2025. Does that help? That's very helpful. Thank you so much. My final question is more conceptual, again, sticking with industrial. Look, it's pretty clear that the vegetation portion of the business is at a cycle bottom. Orders are already getting better, and that's probably going to pick up in 2026. We're seeing that with small tractors. Maybe lower rates are going to help your forestry business. So that part of the business seems to have reasonable visibility. But in industrial, this is where, at least to me, things are a little trickier because we have seen very good demand over the past few years.

There is a question as to the sustainability of this demand in the context that a lot of the stimulus dollars that have been allocated post-COVID have been frankly spent. Now we sort of have to ponder where we are in terms of the needs or the various replacement cycles that these municipalities have for various types of products that you sell in the segment. Kind of a complicated question, I guess, but what is your perspective on the sustainability of demand in this segment? As you think about your goals that you have outlined, which are reasonably ambitious, what are some of the levers that you feel are within your control to be able to get this segment to perform at the kind of the sort of level that you have outlined? Thank you. Yep. Big, broad question there. Good question.

We're thinking a lot about it. The first thing that I would say is I think you're spot on with respect to the way you're reading the end markets and the way we think about it. We've had a tremendous amount of money inserted into certainly the U.S. economy coming out of COVID around the infrastructure or from the infrastructure acts, job reduction acts, etc. That has poured a lot of money into the economy and boosted it. You can see it in the results. We've grown, I think we said, seven consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, 17% print in Q3. That's extraordinary performance. I think that as we look forward, that will slow. I think those end markets are still really, really attractive end markets. They're less cyclical. They're longer cycle in nature. We certainly love those end markets.

I think the really interesting thing is there are pockets within that business that also are really exciting that may surprise on the upside. Take hydro excavation as an example. This is something where there are state and local mandates driving the demand for the need for these types of products, which we sell. The penetration in that market is still fairly low, but the acceptance is growing quite rapidly. It is supported federally by OSHA. You see a lot of movement from an environmental perspective. Those types of products are desired in demand. You take that sub-market within the, let's call it, excavation and vacuum group section within the industrial division, you are going to see outsized performance there. I think a lot of the third-party data would suggest that has got 6-7% annual growth rate demand behind it. That is really exciting stuff. That is one pocket within this.

I think the second thing, other than the drumbeat around product innovation that we're going to have, is M&A, right? I think we can target very attractive companies that have above-average EBITDA margins that will be accretive to our profile. So all of those things we're really excited about, even if the broader industrial end markets cool a bit as we roll off some of this heavy infrastructure spend. It's still really an exciting time to be part of Alamo. That's super helpful. Look forward to seeing you in Chicago next week. Thank you. You bet. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks. Thank you all for participating, and it's a great time to be part of the Alamo Group. We look forward to speaking with you again. The conference has now concluded.

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