Earnings call transcript: American Axle Q3 2025 beats EPS expectations

American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) reported its Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing earnings per share (EPS) expectations but falling short on revenue forecasts. The company's stock experienced a pre-market dip following the announcement.

Summary Paragraph

American Axle & Manufacturing reported a Q3 2025 EPS of $0.16, exceeding the forecasted $0.12 by 33.33%. However, the revenue came in at $1.51 billion, slightly below the anticipated $1.52 billion. Despite the EPS beat, the stock fell 2.76% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the revenue shortfall.

Key Takeaways

• EPS exceeded expectations by 33.33%, reaching $0.16.
• Revenue fell short of forecasts, totaling $1.51 billion.
• Stock price dropped 2.76% in pre-market trading.
• Strong performance in the driveline business unit with a 14.9% adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Ongoing restructuring efforts in Europe.

Company Performance

American Axle & Manufacturing demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, maintaining flat sales year-over-year at $1.51 billion. The company's driveline business unit was a standout, achieving a 14.9% adjusted EBITDA margin. The company continues to focus on innovation with a propulsion-agnostic product portfolio and new product wins in truck and SUV platforms.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $1.51 billion (flat year-over-year)
• Earnings per share: $0.16 (33.33% above forecast)
• Operating cash flow: $143.3 million
• Adjusted free cash flow: $98.1 million
• Adjusted EBITDA: $195 million (12.9% of sales)

Earnings vs. Forecast

American Axle's Q3 2025 EPS of $0.16 surpassed the forecasted $0.12, marking a positive surprise of 33.33%. This performance contrasts with the revenue, which fell short by 0.66%, coming in at $1.51 billion against a forecast of $1.52 billion. The EPS beat is significant, reflecting strong cost management and operational efficiency.

Market Reaction

Despite the positive EPS surprise, American Axle's stock declined 2.76% in pre-market trading, with shares priced at $6. This drop reflects investor apprehension due to the revenue miss and broader market conditions. The stock remains within its 52-week range, with a low of $3 and a high of $7.03.

Outlook & Guidance

For 2025, American Axle projects sales between $5.8 billion and $5.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $710 million to $745 million. The company anticipates closing the Dauch acquisition in Q1 2026, with potential synergy opportunities of $300 million.

Executive Commentary

CEO David Dauch emphasized the company's focus on efficiency, stating, "We remain extremely focused on managing our business and driving efficiency regardless of the operating environment." CFO Chris May highlighted the company's financial strategy, noting, "We will deploy, on an overweight perspective, our cash flow generation to paying down debt."

Risks and Challenges

• Revenue shortfall may impact investor confidence.
• Ongoing restructuring in Europe could pose operational risks.
• Potential challenges in integrating the upcoming Dauch acquisition.
• Market volatility and economic pressures could affect future performance.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of 232 tariffs on heavy-duty trucks, to which the company confirmed no significant effects. Questions also focused on the company's deleveraging plans post-Dauch acquisition, with management reiterating their commitment to reducing debt.

Full transcript - American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) Q3 2025:

Nick, Conference Facilitator: Good morning. My name is Nick, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star key, then the number two. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. David Lim, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

David Lim, Head of Investor Relations, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's third quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our third quarter of 2025 earnings announcement. You can access that announcement on the investor relations page on our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. Now, to listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 877-344-7529, replay access code 434-6240. This replay will be available through November 14th. As for upcoming investor conferences, we'll be at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference later this month. We'll also attend Bank of America Leverage Finance Conference and the UBS Global Industrials Transportation Conference in December. We look forward to seeing you there.

Now, before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, please reference slide two of our investor presentation or the press release that was issued today. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available in the presentation. With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Joining me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. To begin, I'll review the highlights of our third quarter financial performance. Then I will touch on some commentary about AAM's recent business developments. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call for any questions that you all may have. Let's begin. AAM's third quarter of 2025 sales were $1.51 billion. AAM's adjusted earnings per share was $0.16 per share. Operating cash flow was $143.3 million, and adjusted free cash flow was approximately $98.1 million. From a profitability perspective, AAM delivered strong year-over-year margin growth driven by performance.

AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $195 million, or 12.9% of sales, a robust 130 basis point improvement versus last year on flat sales. This was led by our driveline business unit, which achieved adjusted EBITDA margins of 14.9%, the highest third quarter margin since 2020. The performance was supported by a focus on operational efficiency, continuous improvement, quality, and managing factors under our control. On the metal forming side, we still have additional work to do to reach our full margin potential. Let's talk about the operating environment. In the near term, we are seeing onshoring opportunities within our metal forming group, and we continue to assess our footprint to optimize to support our customers' needs as we're all dealing with the tariff environment.

With the discontinuation of the EV tax credit in the U.S., changes to emission regulations and trade policies, OEMs are assessing their long-range product plans and the market, especially trying to determine electric vehicle natural demand. Currently, bidding activity leans more towards ICE than EV, and an extended ICE tail is good for AAM as we can further leverage our installed asset base with our core products. We continue to believe that large truck and SUV demand appear to be very healthy, both sweet spots for AAM. With that said, we also have a strong foundational technology in electrification with our components, electric drive units, and electric beam axles. Our portfolio will only strengthen and expand as we complete the Dauch acquisition. As we have communicated earlier, our goal is to have a propulsion-agnostic product portfolio that adjusts with the market demands.

Let me talk about some business updates on slide four. From a deal transaction standpoint, both shareholder approvals were completed in July. In October, we completed the permanent financing for the transaction by securing $850 million of senior secured notes, $1.25 billion of senior unsecured notes, and $835 million of term loans. Additionally, we redeemed all of our 2027 senior notes and a portion of our 2028 senior notes with the financing mentioned. On the regulatory front, we continue to make great progress. The European Commission clearance decision was issued on October the 1st, meaning that the EU antitrust condition has been completely satisfied. We also recently cleared regulatory approval in Brazil this Thursday, on November the 6th.

The combination has now been cleared, and the related conditions to the combination satisfied under the antitrust laws, in eight of the ten required jurisdictions where antitrust filings were made, namely in the United States, India, the U.K., Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, the EU, and most recently, Brazil. The clearances that remain outstanding under antitrust laws are Mexico and China. We expect Mexico to be cleared here in the fourth quarter of 2025. In China, the parties are actively engaged with the State Administration for Market Regulation, otherwise known as SAMR, with respect to its review of the combination, and AAM remains highly confident on obtaining antitrust clearance in late 2025 or early 2026. Regarding the deal closing timing, we now expect the deal to close in the first quarter of next year, as we communicated in a press release on October the 27th.

As such, we are very excited to close on this transformational combination. From a product win perspective, AAM has won new and replacement programs, as well as volume extensions in both business units. One win in particular is a meaningful volume uplift for a popular heavy-duty truck program. We supply critical transmission products for that platform. These wins, in general, support a broad spectrum of powertrains, signifying AAM's agnostic approach. Transitioning to our guidance, we have updated our 2025 guidance ranges on the strength of our results through the first three quarters of the year. AAM is now targeting sales in the range of $5.8 billion-$5.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $710 million-$745 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $180 million-$210 million.

Our guidance ranges are supported by an assumed North American production volume of approximately 15.1 million units and assumptions on certain platforms that we support. Chris will provide additional details on the assumptions underpinning our guidance. In summary, AAM continues to deliver solid performance while successfully navigating market volatility and policy uncertainties. We remain extremely focused on managing our business and driving efficiency regardless of the operating environment. Meanwhile, we continue to make excellent progress with the regulatory bodies to close our combination with Dauch. We are excited about the combination's potential and the long-term vision of the new company. This deal is truly transformational, benefiting our customers, suppliers, employees, and most importantly, our shareholders. Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May, for the third quarter financial details. Chris.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our third quarter 2025 results and our updated guidance with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. Let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the third quarter of 2025, AAM sales were $1.5 billion, flat versus the third quarter of 2024. Slide seven shows a walk of third quarter 2024 sales to third quarter 2025 sales. Volume mix and other was favorable by $8 million. Metal market pass-throughs and FX translation increased sales by approximately $25 million. These gains were offset by $30 million of lower sales due to the successful sale of our commercial vehicle axle business in India that took place earlier in the year. Now, let's move on to profitability.

Gross profit was $189 million in the third quarter of 2025 as compared to $171 million in the third quarter of 2024. For the third quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $194.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.9% versus $174.4 million and 11.6% last year. You can see the year-over-year walkdown of adjusted EBITDA on slide eight. In the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was higher due to volume mix and other by $9 million versus the prior year. This unusual contribution margin rate this quarter was driven by mix. Sales of certain higher margin programs increased, while sales of lower margin programs declined. RAM heavy-duty production, which is a significant program for us, increased year over year. R&D was lower by $3 million versus last year as we continue to optimize our engineering spend. Lastly, performance and other was favorable by $16 million.

The year-over-year favorability was driven by a combination of factors, including operational performance and other productivity, partially offset by tariffs and SG&A expense timing. AAM remains focused on productivity, efficiency, and cost optimization in all areas of our business. Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D in the third quarter of 2025, was $98.8 million, or 6.6% of sales. This compares to $94.6 million, or 6.3% of sales, in the third quarter of 2024. AAM's R&D spending in the third quarter of 2025 was approximately $37 million, down from approximately $40 million. For the full year, we continue to anticipate R&D expense to be down on a year-over-year basis by nearly $20 million, driven by current market requirements and continued focus on engineering efficiency. Let's move now on to interest and taxes.

Net interest expense was $35.7 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $38.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. The improvement was due to a lower weighted average interest rate of our outstanding long-term debt and lower year-over-year debt balances. In the third quarter of 2025, we recorded an income tax benefit of $10.9 million compared to a benefit of $12.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. The third quarter of 2025 includes a discrete benefit of $22 million related to the impact of the accounting for the one big beautiful bill. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect an adjusted tax rate of approximately 10-15%. As for cash taxes, we expect approximately $60-75 million this year.

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $9.2 million, or $0.07 per share in the third quarter of 2025, compared to net income of $10 million, or $0.08 per share in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.16 per share in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $0.20 per share for the third quarter of 2024. Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2025 was $143 million compared to $144 million in the third quarter of 2024. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment for the third quarter of 2025, were $64 million.

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the third quarter of 2025 were $18.6 million. Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $98 million in the third quarter of 2025. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $1.9 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $735 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 2.6 times at September 30th, 2025. We also maintained a strong cash position of over $700 million. AAM ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $1.7 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities. With that background in place, let's talk about our guidance on slide five. Our outlook has been updated from our previous targets. Our updated targets are as follows.

For sales, our new range is $5.8 billion-$5.9 billion versus $5.75 billion-$5.95 billion previously. This new sales target is based upon a North America production assumption of approximately 15.1 million units and certain assumptions for our key programs. We now anticipate GM's full-size pickup truck and SUV production in the range of 1.35 million-1.39 million units. From an EBITDA perspective, AAM anticipates a range of $710 million-$745 million versus $695 million-$745 million previously. We now anticipate adjusted free cash flow in the range of $180 million-$210 million. Our CapEx assumption is unchanged at approximately 5% of sales as we ready the organization for important upcoming launches, especially for one of our major truck programs.

In addition, while not included in our adjusted free cash flow figures, we estimate our restructuring-related cash payments for AAM as a standalone entity to be approximately $20 million for 2025 as we look to further optimize our business and further reduce fixed costs. With the updated guidance in mind, let me provide some additional color on the fourth quarter operating environment that we see. From a production standpoint, we expect normal seasonality plus some additional production volatility. We anticipate AAM's project expense to be overweight in the fourth quarter as we prepare for some significant upcoming launches that I mentioned previously. We continue to be excited about the new RAM heavy-duty launch cycle. It has gained momentum throughout the course of the year, and we will continue to manage other costs such as R&D.

We underscore that the guidance figures that we are providing today are on an AAM standalone basis, pre-combination basis, and exclude any costs or expenses related to our announced Dauch transaction. As it relates to the Dauch acquisition, as David mentioned earlier, we completed the permanent financing for the transaction. This includes a nice balance of term loans, secured notes, and unsecured notes. As part of this positive financing activity, we were able to opportunistically refinance all of our existing 2027 senior notes and a portion of our 2028 senior notes. As a result, we extended the weighted average maturity of AAM's senior debt to well over six years. The revised debt maturity profile provides AAM with flexibility, and we will have no significant maturities until 2028. This is very good news from multiple perspectives as we ready for the closing on the Dauch acquisition.

As for 2026, we expect to provide formal guidance early next year. However, let me give you some of our thoughts as we head into next year. While the industry faces various challenges, we remain excited about our product and markets. We anticipate large SUV and pickup truck markets to remain healthy. As you know, our primary driveline truck platforms are the GM T1XX and the RAM heavy-duty platforms. We also have very good content on the Ford Super Duty. We believe ICE and ICE hybrid powertrains will continue to have meaningful longevity and consumer demand. Tariff and world trade dynamics should create opportunities for global suppliers with strong capabilities and scale, such as AAM, and also a soon-to-be much larger AAM with the completion of the Dauch acquisition.

Lastly, we will continue to focus on our core cost efficiencies and aggressively drive towards realizing our $300 million synergy goal. In conclusion, AAM delivered good results through the first three quarters of the year and has successfully navigated both production and tariff volatility. Fundamentally, we will continue to manage factors under our control and course-correct through market, supply chain, and policy changes that we may face. Furthermore, our aim is for continuous improvement and operational excellence, and these should manifest in future results. Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A. David?

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two. At this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause just for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Joe Spak with UBS. Please go ahead.

Joe Spak, Analyst, UBS: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Chris, maybe just a first quick one, some housekeeping, I guess. If you could just remind us sort of what's in the bucket or what was driving it, like the $9 million volume mix other and EBITDA on $8 million in sales, what just stands out a little bit? What's going on in those buckets?

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. No, yeah. That's a great question. Of course, with the low change in revenue, obviously, you get a little bit of dynamics and a percentage ratio here. What we experienced in the quarter was a continued, I would say, year-over-year strong performance on the RAM platform. We saw elevated sales from our full-size truck franchise from that standpoint. We had some declines in some of our other business, think some passenger car and crossover vehicle and component business. That mix sort of caused that dynamic of sort of a ratio of some higher margin business coming in in terms of versus prior year, and then some lower margin business sort of lower to give that sort of odd ratio between volume mix and other from a contribution margin mix to the revenue that you see.

You do have some tariff recoveries flowing through that line as well, which kind of accentuates that issue a little bit, but that is principally what is going on. All normal activity is just an odd mix.

Joe Spak, Analyst, UBS: Okay. David, just a second question and bigger picture. I was wondering if you could just sort of update us on your conversations with customers in terms of sort of where they're at in reshoring activities and other sort of investments in the U.S. and what type of conversations you've had with some of your customers there and opportunities. I guess, are you also able to start to go to those customers with some of the potential benefits from the Dauch acquisition, or is that not yet feasible or part of those conversations? Thanks.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. Let me start with the last question first, Joe. We're not able to have any discussions with customers regarding Dauch directly because we'd be considered gun jumping as far as the two of us working together. We are very distinct in regards to only talking about what AAM can do today versus what Dauch might be able to do in the future. That will enhance our opportunity clearly once that becomes part of the AAM family. As I indicated in my comments and Chris did as well, we are seeing a lot of opportunities from various customers, both the OEM level and the tier level on our metal forming business for localization, especially in the forgings and castings and powdered metal parts. That is increasing some of our sales opportunities. Nothing to announce at this time, but we're working actively with multiple customers right now.

Regarding plant footprints, our policy is always to try to buy and build local in the local markets that we serve. That has mitigated a lot of tariff exposure to us. We're clearly watching the USMCA negotiations, anticipating that there will be a higher U.S. content requirement in the future. We have had conversations with various customers about what their intentions are. Knowing that we ship big products, we like to be in closer proximity to our customers. Once they can make their final decisions, then we'll make appropriate footprint adjustments in concert and in alignment and in agreement with those customers on a go-forward basis. I'd say that, yes, there are ongoing discussions taking place. Nothing that we can announce at this time is going to be largely dependent on when the customers finalize their plant loading plans.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: Your next question today will come from Tom Narayan with RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0: Hey, thanks for taking the question. The first one is just on the regulatory antitrust clearing. Just seeing if, I mean, you guys are confident China late 2025 or early 2026. Just curious if that was a surprise at all, or was that always contemplated? Is there a specific risk there, or is there an overlap there? Is that what's causing that where it might lead to divestitures or something? Or is it just kind of just regular course of action? I don't have a follow-up.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. Tom, this is David. No, we're highly confident in regards to we'll get all the jurisdictions approved. We clearly anticipated that Brazil, Mexico, and China would be the long poles in the tent. Brazil, as I mentioned, we got verbal acknowledgment earlier in the month, but we got final formal approval just yesterday. We expect Mexico here yet this month. China, we're in discussions with them, but I don't expect us to have to do anything from a large remedy standpoint in that area. We're just going through the normal discussions and their inquiries and questions, just like we've done with other countries. Their process is just taking a little bit longer. We did anticipate that geopolitical issues could potentially impact this, quite honestly, it hasn't at this point in time, and we hope that it doesn't. We're getting full cooperation from SAMR at this time.

Speaker 0: Okay. Got it. And then my follow-up just on the kind of production that you guys are assuming for North America, 15.1, it does feel like it implies kind of a downshift in Q4, a pretty significant one. Just curious, maybe, is that baking in some conservatism? Maybe in Experia seems to be there's some positive indications there on resolution there. I know that that's a market number, but just curious if that's just conservatism or something specific you're seeing.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. Tom, this is Chris. Of course, we anchor this a little bit around, as you mentioned, a market number, but at this point in the year too, we're also really kind of calibrating and locking into our specific customer schedules. As you may be aware, we've experienced a little bit of downtime in the fourth quarter, early in the quarter, meaning October, early part of that. We had one of our customer assembly plants at Wentzville down that impacted some of our production. We've seen a little bit of extra holiday downtime we anticipate near the end of the year. Also, as you mentioned, the other issues in terms of supply chain.

We've had a little bit around the edges in terms of some volatility there, but we're trying to calibrate into what we see in the current market environment, and that's sort of our best estimate right now at the time.

Speaker 0: Got it. Thanks.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yep.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: Your next question today will come from ET McCally with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just going back, good morning. Just going back to the onshoring opportunity, as you think about that opportunity as well as your recent business wins and ICE extensions, I'm curious kind of how you're thinking, at least at a high level, of the company's kind of growth over market potential over the next few years or so.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): What I would say, ET, this is David. I think we have an opportunity to benefit strongly on our metal forming side of the business with respect to the onshoring activity that we mentioned earlier. Once we are able to pull Dauch together, we also think there are insourcing opportunities because they buy a lot of their forging and some of their powdered metal on the outside. We think, and casting, so we think there is some opportunity there. I do not have off the top of my head our position in regards to this growth over market, but I think we can keep up with the market with respect to what is going on. We do have some products that will be transitioning off some older transmission-related products. Clearly, we are going to have to offset that in order to show incremental growth aligned with the marketplace.

I would say overall, we should be able to hopefully hold on to where the market's at.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. I would say, ET, this is Chris. In addition to some of that with these extensions that we're seeing, obviously, some conversion into hybrid creates some opportunity for us. You may recall from our last earnings call, we announced a great award with Scout. These are examples where our next-gen technologies into electrification will also drive some of that uplift in terms of growth over market opportunities for us.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Terrific. That's very helpful. As my follow-up, just on the kind of Q4 outlook, do you have any kind of bias within the EBITDA range? Maybe just talk about the different factors from here through year-end that may cause you to be coming at the lower or maybe higher end of that range.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. In terms of that range, obviously, first and foremost, it pins around our absolute revenue for the quarter and our contribution margin, generally somewhere between 25%-35% range. That is the key, probably the primary factors, I think, about our EBITDA range inside of the fourth quarter. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we do have some, I would say, heavy load of project expenses. We're getting ready for some next-gen product launches also aligned with some of our heavier capital spend that we're anticipating here in the fourth quarter. You do get a little timing movement associated with that. As I mentioned, also some of our production volatility causes a little bit. We're also focused on some cost optimization side on our engineering spend as well as some productivity improvements in several of our facilities.

Those are kind of the key factors that have plus or minus to it, but the largest piece is volume at the moment.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Terrific. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yep.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: The next question will come from James Picariello with BNP. Please go ahead.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Hey, guys. This is Jay Kohn from James. You saw pretty healthy step up in driveline margins this quarter. Could you just share if there are any one-timers in there, or is this a number you guys think you can do going forward?

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. Each quarter obviously has a unique story, whether it's a mix of volume and products. On the driveline side, if you look consistently now over the last four to six quarters, it has been very strong and stable in its ability to generate margins on its product mix. As we talked a little bit about RAM earlier, on a year-over-year basis, continues to be very strong for us. That's obviously one of our full-size truck franchise products that we supply. Quite frankly, they've been doing a nice job managing their cost environment. Each quarter is a little bit different in terms of its margin, but holistically, the trend is for them to continue to perform very strong.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thank you. You guys have pretty significant exposure on these heavier-duty pickup trucks. Can you talk about the impact you are seeing from the expansion of the 232 tariffs to the medium and heavy-duty truck space? Have you seen any kind of shifts from your patterns, or are you potentially having an easier time in discussions about recoveries? Thank you.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yep. Great question. Yeah. No, we obviously have a lot of exposure on those platforms for all three of the North American OEMs. As you know, that is a very strong demand product and built all throughout North America in different locations. Right now, at the moment, no, we have not seen any negative impact associated with that. Our customers continue to build those very well in terms of capacity and in terms of meeting their end market demand as well. Currently, we are not seeing any significant impact associated with that.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: Your next question today will come from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Winnie Alg, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Hi. Thank you. This is Winnie Alg for Edison. I guess I wanted to go back to the quarter for a little bit, especially the performance in other markets category, which is very strong. Just wanted to see if you can break that down, the compositions of it, and then what's sustainable and what's not on a go-forward basis. Thank you.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yep. Good morning, Winnie. This is Chris. I'll take that one. If you look at our performance bucket on our year-over-year walks, about two-thirds of that performance is associated with our driveline business unit, sort of in response to the question that was just answered previously. I would expect them to continue to have very strong normal operating performance. The remainder of this bucket was a net of a few things. We've seen some positive momentum in our, I will call it, material costs as a company. It was offset slightly by tariffs, a couple million dollar net negative impact inside the quarter as it relates to tariffs, and then some timing of our SG&A expense also offset some of that gain. Structurally, again, I would expect the driveline to continue to perform very well.

Metal form, I would expect to improve over the next couple of quarters as it relates to performance.

Winnie Alg, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: That's very helpful. Maybe just looking ahead to 2026, you've mentioned that mix in the quarter was a strong contribution to the strong incrementals that you guys have been seeing. Can you help us maybe think about how that could potentially roll forward to 2026 as we look at volume and mix heading into next year? Maybe on the profit cost side, what are some of the good guys or bad guys, that guys, high-level color? That'd be great.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. As it relates to our contribution margin on our product mix, we've been pretty consistent. We see it flow through almost every quarter. Our range would be 25%-35% is our margin. So use that midpoint of 30%. It does depend a little bit on mix of product, but that's pretty consistent. I would expect that to continue in that range going forward. Look, as we think into 2026, we're going to be very focused on optimizing our cost structure, keeping our product engineering spend in line with market trends. Really, we're going to start to pivot here, in addition to our core productivity, but pivot towards the acquisition with Dauch and the synergy realization and really sort of growing our margin and cash flow opportunity from that perspective.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: The next question will come from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0: Good morning, everyone.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Good morning, Nathan.

Speaker 0: I guess just one follow-up on the mix equation in the third quarter and how to think about that going forward. Obviously, you can have some different impacts during any given quarter, but is that something more structural in the mix where these more profitable programs that you are on should structurally grow faster than some of these less profitable programs that are maybe rolling off? We should continue to see, not necessarily from one quarter to the next, but a more structural improvement in that mix?

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): I would expect, as I mentioned, Nathan, our standard contribution margin is around 25%-35%. Our North America trucks generally are towards the higher end of that range. Passenger cars are a little bit towards the lower end, and crossover vehicles are sort of in the middle. I do not see that fundamentally changing going forward.

Speaker 0: Okay. Maybe a question on the metals business. Maybe you can just talk about the restructuring actions that you have taken in that, what is left to do, and the levers that you are currently pulling and the levers you need to pull in the future to get the margins back to a more acceptable level in that business. Thanks.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. This is David Dauch. We're clearly looking and acting on restructuring efforts with some activity that we've got ongoing in Europe right now. We're executing that plan. We hope to have that completed in the next year, so that would be positive. The other part is addressing just some utilization matters and throughput matters within a couple of our existing plants that have struggled a little bit. One, first, on labor availability and just technical skill sets. So we're addressing those matters. We're highly confident that we can get the margins back up into a double-digit type category. I don't know historically if we can get them to those levels next year, but we'll continue to work in that direction.

Obviously, we've had some challenges there that have been lingering on a little bit longer than we would like, but we're very focused on what we need to do to fix those matters going forward here. I'd leave it at that.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: The next question will come from Doug Karson with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Great. Thanks, guys. Good morning.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Good morning.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): I want to focus on the balance sheet just for a moment. So it looks like net leverage is in good shape at 2.6. I just wanted to kind of double-click on the Dauch acquisition and it being kind of conservatively set. Am I right in saying that performance net leverage is about flat following acquisition?

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. When we announced the—this is Chris. When we announced the transaction earlier in the year, our leverage we closed last year was around 2.8. First quarter, we were around 2.9. And we said at that point in time, we would expect the leverage of the company once at close to be somewhere around neutral to that time spot and location. We still expect that to be true based upon what we stated earlier in the year. What you are seeing going on this year inside of AAM Standalone, as we had several initiatives to monetize some of our assets, meaning exiting our joint venture in China, our sale of India commercial vehicle, and pool cash towards that close.

This is tracking exactly along the line of the plan we anticipated and able to make that statement earlier in the year that we expect to be around leverage neutral at close from our numbers that we had when we made the announcement. We are still expecting that to be true.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): That's great. Thanks for that update. If I could just look at maybe at the long-term leverage framework. Since the metal line acquisition, I remember in maybe 2016, lowering leverage, focus on the balance sheet was pretty much a priority for almost 10 years. How do you kind of look at the future framework for leverage now that the company's revenue is almost going to be double and you've got, I guess, more diversity? Just kind of curious of where leverage is going to go over the intermediate term.

Chris May, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. First of all, in the short term, our priority will continue to be to delever the company. We will deploy, on an overweight perspective, our cash flow generation to paying down debt. That is our anticipation. That was our commitment when we announced the transaction with Dauch earlier in the year. I would expect that in the near term and transitioning towards the medium term. Through that announcement earlier in the year, we did indicate once we crossed the two and a half times net leverage threshold, we would have, I would call it, a little more balanced capital allocation playbook. We'll continue to focus on paying down debt. We'll continue to focus on reducing the leverage of the company. That is a priority for us. We would open up our playbook to maybe consider some other actions from a shareholder perspective.

Reducing the leverage, continuing to pay down debt in the near term will be our top priority, and will continue to be a priority in the medium and longer term.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Great. Thanks so much for that. That's it from us.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Thanks, Doug.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: Thank you, gentlemen. Your last question is a follow-up from Tom Narayan with RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0: Hey, thanks for bringing back in. Just a quick one on the press release you guys issued October 27th that discusses some of the management folks you guys invited from the Dauch side. Just curious how you see that playing out. Is it kind of a plug-and-play where those folks continue to lead their respective kind of organizations? Yeah. Just at a high level, after seeing that press release, curious how you think about integrating executives from Dauch. Thanks.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yeah. Tom, this is David. Clearly, we are hopeful that Roberto Fiorone would join the executive team. Initial indications were headed down that path. At the same time, he made a personal and family decision. We have and will respect those decisions. At the same time, we'll make the necessary adjustments from a management team standpoint. Roberto's current capacity is the CFO at Dauch. Chris is clearly the CFO at American Axle. We'll continue with Chris in the capacity where we are. We'll make some slight adjustments in regards to other things that we are planning. Again, we're disappointed that Roberto can't join us, but at the same time, we've got an outstanding executive team today, and we'll continue to lead the organization going forward.

We are going to work collectively together to blend the teams at all the different levels, including the board of directors, so that we can pick the best athletes and have the best talent to support the strategic combination of the two companies.

Various Analysts, Analyst, Various (BofA, Stifel, etc.): Got it. Thanks a lot.

David Dauch, Chairman and CEO, American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM): Yep. Thank you, Tom.

Speaker 0: Thank you, Tom. We thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

Nick, Conference Facilitator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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