Earnings call transcript: Arcosa Q4 2024 misses EPS forecast, sees stock drop

Arcosa Inc. (NASDAQ: NYSE:ACA) reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a significant miss in its earnings per share (EPS) compared to forecasts. The company recorded an EPS of $0.46, falling short of the anticipated $0.81. Revenue also missed expectations, coming in at $666.2 million against a forecast of $692.68 million. Trading at a P/E ratio of 34.8, significantly above industry averages, the stock price experienced a 6.01% decline during regular trading hours, closing at $91.58. In premarket trading, the stock rebounded, rising by 4.99% to $96.15.

According to InvestingPro, Arcosa currently shows several promising indicators, including strong liquidity and moderate debt levels. Subscribers can access 7 additional exclusive ProTips that provide deeper insights into the company’s financial position.

Key Takeaways

• Arcosa’s Q4 2024 EPS was significantly below forecast, impacting investor sentiment.
• The company achieved record revenues for the full year 2024, despite the quarterly miss.
• Strategic acquisitions and organic projects completed in 2024 are expected to support future growth.
• Arcosa’s stock showed volatility, dropping after the earnings release but recovering in premarket trading.

Company Performance

Arcosa reported record revenues for the full year 2024, with an impressive 11.7% revenue growth over the last twelve months, alongside improved adjusted EBITDA and margins. The company maintains a strong financial position with a current ratio of 3.6, indicating excellent ability to meet short-term obligations. Free cash flow increased to $330 million from $94 million in 2023, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA was reduced to 2.9x. Despite the quarterly earnings miss, the company demonstrated robust performance through strategic acquisitions and organic growth projects.

InvestingPro’s comprehensive financial health analysis reveals a "FAIR" overall rating, with particularly strong scores in cash flow management and profitability metrics.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $666.2 million in Q4 2024, below the forecast of $692.68 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.46, compared to a forecast of $0.81.
• Full year 2024 free cash flow: $330 million, up from $94 million in 2023.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Arcosa’s Q4 2024 EPS of $0.46 was significantly below the forecasted $0.81, marking a miss of approximately 43%. The revenue shortfall of $26.48 million further compounded the negative surprise, contrasting with the company’s historical trend of meeting or exceeding expectations.

Market Reaction

Arcosa’s stock fell by 6.01% following the earnings release, closing at $91.58. This decline reflects investor disappointment with the earnings miss. However, the stock rebounded in premarket trading, climbing by 4.99% to $96.15, indicating a potential shift in sentiment as investors digest the company’s long-term growth prospects.

Outlook & Guidance

For 2025, Arcosa projects revenues between $2.8 billion and $3.0 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to grow by 30% at the midpoint. The company is focused on leveraging recent acquisitions and completed projects to drive growth, while targeting a reduction in leverage to 2.0-2.5x within 18 months. Analyst price targets range from $106 to $145, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth strategy. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock currently appears fairly valued.

Get access to Arcosa’s detailed Pro Research Report, part of InvestingPro’s coverage of 1,400+ US stocks, for comprehensive analysis and actionable investment insights.

Executive Commentary

Antonio Carrillo, CEO of Arcosa, emphasized the company’s transformation in 2024, stating, "We’re a larger, more resilient, less cyclical company." He also highlighted the ongoing demand for renewables, particularly in wind energy, as a key growth driver.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply chain disruptions could impact project timelines and costs.
• Market saturation in key segments may limit growth opportunities.
• Macroeconomic pressures, such as interest rate hikes, could affect investment and consumer spending.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the outlook for wind energy, with Carrillo noting strong demand but expecting a flat trajectory in 2026. Questions also focused on the construction products segment, where Arcosa anticipates flattish to slightly increased organic volumes.

Full transcript - Arcosa Inc (ACA) Q4 2024:

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Arcosa Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. My name is Britney, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to your host, Erin Drabek, Vice President of Investor Relations for Arcosa.

Ms. Drabek, you may begin.

Erin Drabek, Vice President of Investor Relations, Arcosa: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Arcosa’s fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty four earnings call. With me today are Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO and Gail Peck, CFO. A question and answer session will follow their prepared remarks. A copy of the press release issued yesterday and the slide presentation for this morning’s call are posted on our Investor Relations website, ir.arcosa.com. A replay of today’s call will be available for the next two weeks.

Instructions for accessing the replay number are included in the press release. A replay of the webcast will be available for one year on our website under the News and Events tab. Today’s comments and presentation slides contain financial measures that have not been prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure are included in the appendix of the slide presentation. In addition, today’s conference call contains forward looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward looking statements. Please refer to the company’s SEC filings for more information on these risks and uncertainties, including the press release we filed yesterday and our Form 10 K expected to be filed later today. I would now like to turn the call over to Antonio.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Thank you, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for a discussion on our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and our outlook for 2025. I am pleased with the strong financial results we delivered in both the fourth quarter and full year. Let me start with a few key highlights on Page four. First, in a word 2024 was about transformation.

It was a pivotal year for Arcosa as we successfully executed on our strategy of optimizing our portfolio by expanding our growth businesses, while reducing our overall complexity and cyclicality. Next (LON:NXT), we delivered double digit organic growth, which underscores the strength of our infrastructure led portfolio. Third, significant margin expansion was driven by a balanced contribution from higher margin businesses we acquired and organic improvements, helped in part by the divestiture of non core assets and other initiatives we have undertaken over the past few years. And finally, we generated robust free cash flow, which demonstrates our commitment to reducing leverage in 2025 and sets up our cause for continued growth in 2026 and beyond. Please turn to Slide seven.

There were a number of important strategic initiatives that drove our performance. The acquisition of Slavola was game changing for our Construction Materials business, expanding our aggregates footprint into the nation’s largest MSA with increased exposure to less cyclical infrastructure led markets. The acquisition of Amaron earlier in the year established our foothold in the attractive lighting poles and traffic signals markets, complementing our existing product offerings within engineered structures. Both Stavola and Amaron are contributing positively to margin expansion. We also progressed on several important organic initiatives, which include in utility structures, the production ramp up in our new concrete pulp plant in Florida.

Also, we produced our first towers from our new wind tower facility in New Mexico, which we expect will be have a positive impact on margins in 2025. In our Construction Materials business, we fully ramped up our greenfield aggregates operation in Texas and our specialty plaster expansion in Oklahoma. We also started several recycled aggregates facilities adjacent to our current operational footprint. These organic projects together with TAVOLA and AMRO will support our growth in 2025 and beyond. On the divestiture side, during 2024, we continued to simplify our portfolio by completing the sale of the steel components business.

Also during the year, we focused on pruning underperforming assets resulting in the sale of a subscale asphalt operation and the closure of some small aggregate locations which were not in our strategic geographies. Today, we’re a larger, more resilient, less cyclical company with construction products accounting for about 62% of our adjusted EBITDA, nearly double the one third it contributed in 2018. Please turn to Slide nine. Consistently executing against our strategy of combining solid organic investments with disciplined acquisitions and portfolio optimization combined to deliver record full year revenues, adjusted EBITDA and margin in 2024. Equally important, full year 2024 EBITDA growth normalizing for the steel components divestiture and the large land sale gain in 2023 was split evenly between organic and inorganic drivers underscoring the strength of our core business.

In the fourth quarter, we saw significant adjusted EBITDA growth. Margin expanded by four eighty points excluding the impact of steel components. STAVOLA performed well during our first quarter of ownership adding accretive EBITDA contribution. We finished the year strong with fourth quarter free cash flow of nearly $200,000,000 enabling the full repayment of our revolver resulting in net leverage of 2.9 times. As a reminder, we intend to return to our long term leverage target of two to 2.5 times within eighteen months of the closing of Stavona.

Thus far, we’re making excellent progress and we’ll continue to prioritize debt repayment and finishing the organic projects we have underway to prepare the balance sheet for continued growth. Overall, I’m extremely proud of our accomplishments in 2024. I will now turn the call over to Gail to discuss our fourth quarter segment results in more detail.

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Thank you, Antonio, and good morning, everyone. I’ll begin with Construction Products on Slide 11. Fourth quarter segment revenues increased 31%, while adjusted segment EBITDA grew 52% resulting in three seventy basis points of margin expansion. The segment performance was largely attributable to the accretive impacts of STAVOLA, which contributed 25% of segment revenues, 34% of adjusted segment EBITDA and two ninety basis points of segment margin expansion in the quarter. The integration of Stivola is progressing well and fourth quarter financial results were in line with our overall expectations.

On an organic basis, segment revenues declined 4% primarily due to lower freight revenue, which is a pass through and the divestiture of underperforming operations earlier in the year. This decrease was partially offset by strong pricing gains across our Aggregates and Specialty Materials businesses. Although adjusted segment EBITDA on an organic basis declined roughly 3%, organic margin improved 20 basis points year over year. Turning to our aggregates business, which includes both natural and recycled aggregates, average organic pricing was up low double digits from the prior year. Total (EPA:TTEF) fourth quarter volume was up mid single digits due to the contribution of STABOLA, while organic volume decreased due to our focused strategy on pricing, a higher number of heavy rainfall days and the closure of our West Texas aggregates operations earlier in the year.

Strong organic pricing, lower fuel costs and actions to optimize operations resulted in mid-fifteen organic unit profitability gains and drove 50 basis points of segment margin expansion during the quarter. For the full year, pricing grew approximately 10% and volumes decreased roughly 8% on an organic basis. Total volume, inclusive of acquisitions, was about flat for the year with pricing growth similar to the organic showing. Within Specialty Materials, revenues were roughly flat as strong pricing gains were mostly offset by lower freight revenue. Adjusted EBITDA for the business declined compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to planned downtime at one of our lightweight aggregate facilities for a required equipment upgrade.

This work has been completed and operations returned to normal in January. Finally, revenues and adjusted EBITDA for our Trent (NSE:TREN) Shoring business were roughly flat and adjusted EBITDA margin for the business was slightly dilutive to the segment, primarily due to product mix in the quarter. Moving to Engineered Structures on Slide 12. Revenues for our Utility Wind and Related Structures businesses increased 11% largely due to higher wind tower volumes and the inorganic impact from Ameron, which was acquired last April. Revenues in our Utility Structures business declined in the quarter due to reduced steel prices, which impacted average selling prices and lower volumes.

Adjusted segment EBITDA increased 41% and margins expanded three eighty basis points, the segment growth was predominantly organic resulting from the ramp in our new wind tower facility in New Mexico, which was accretive to the segment in the quarter and favorable product mix and operating improvements in our Utility Structures business. This growth was enhanced by the positive contribution from Ameron. We ended the year with combined backlog for Utility Wind and related structures of $1,200,000,000 and expect to deliver 64% during 2025. Turning to Transportation Products on Slide 13, revenues were up 28% and adjusted segment EBITDA doubled, excluding steel components from the prior year period. Higher tank barge volumes and improved plant efficiencies resulted in almost 700 basis points of margin improvement year over year for the barge business.

We received barge orders of $128,000,000 during the quarter, representing a book to bill of $1.4 We ended the year with a backlog of $280,000,000 up 10% year over year. I’ll now provide some comments on our strong cash flow and improved balance sheet position as shown on Slide 15. During the quarter, we generated $248,000,000 of operating cash flow, up from $62,000,000 in last year’s fourth quarter. The increase was largely driven by a 180,000,000 reduction in working capital due to lower receivables and increased advanced billings, primarily for our wind tower and barge businesses. During the quarter, we sold $45,000,000 of twenty twenty four A and P wind tower tax credits, which contributed to the decrease in receivables.

The credits were sold at a small discount resulting in a $3,000,000 reduction to fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA. CapEx for the fourth quarter was $53,000,000 down $6,000,000 from the prior period. This translated to $199,000,000 of free cash flow for the quarter, which we used to fully repay our revolver. For the full year, free cash flow was $330,000,000 up from $94,000,000 last year. We are pleased to end the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.9 times down from 3.4 times at the start of the quarter.

We are being disciplined with respect to capital deployment, prioritizing debt reduction in the near term. For full year 2025, we expect CapEx of between $145,000,000 to $165,000,000 down from $190,000,000 in 2024 as we predominantly invest for maintenance needs across our portfolio and finish growth projects in place. We anticipate additional deleveraging during the second half of the year. I’ll wrap up with a few final comments for modeling purposes. It is important to highlight that Stavola, whose operations are located in the Northeast, brings more seasonality to our portfolio.

Stavola is roughly a breakeven business in the first quarter and seasonally strongest in the second and third quarters. While Stavola is accretive to Construction Products segment for the full year, we expect their operations to dilute adjusted segment EBITDA margin by approximately 200 basis points in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, depreciation, depletion and amortization expense increased approximately 50% year over year, primarily due to recent acquisition activity, including the required fair value markup for long lived assets. For full year 2025, we expect depreciation, depletion and amortization expense to range from $230,000,000 to $235,000,000 For 2025, we expect a more normalized effective tax rate of 19% to 20% And last, we see corporate expenses of approximately $60,000,000 up about 3.5% year over year. I will now turn the call back over to Antonio for more discussion on our 2025 outlook.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Thank you, Gail. The actions we took in 2024 position us well as we enter 2025. Arcos is a company focused on growing in The U. S. Market, which is supported by attractive long term infrastructure led investment.

Of the over 140 locations our coast operates, only one mine is in Canada and two manufacturing plants are in Mexico. Everything else is in The U. S. Almost every steel product we make, even in Mexico, is made with U. S.

Melted and rolled steel. So we believe the company is well prepared against the current trade and tariff uncertainties. However, there are many unknowns surrounding the trade policies that are being discussed and the risk of potential retaliatory impacts including by Mexico. So we will be watching developments closely and making the adjustments needed as the details come out. We’re also optimistic about the potential impact of reduced regulation could have in many of our markets.

Like with trade, it’s too early to estimate any future benefit. But if any of in many of our markets heavy regulatory burdens are bottlenecks for infrastructure growth. The 2025 guidance that I’ll review in a moment does not incorporate any impacts from potential regulatory changes either positive or negative. Turning to our outlook on slide 17. We expect growth to come from four different sources in 2025.

First, our growth businesses, Construction Materials and Utility and Related Structures, enter the year with solid underlying demand fundamentals. Second, the backlogs in our cyclical businesses, barge and wind towers, support solid growth for 2025. Third, several organic projects we finished in 2024 should contribute positively to our results in 2025. And finally, the important acquisitions we did last year should bring solid growth for the company this year. For 2025, we anticipate revenues to be in the range of $2,800,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $545,000,000 to $595,000,000 which implies 30 growth at the midpoint.

Our guidance incorporates double digit organic and inorganic growth with a slightly higher weight to inorganic as we benefit from nine additional months of STABOLA in 2025. Please turn to Slide 18 for a discussion on our business outlook by segment. In Construction Products, our outlook is positive. We expect increased spending on infrastructure, AI, data centers as well as a continuation of heavy manufacturing investment in selected markets. Additionally, we’re optimistic about regarding a possible recovery in the single family housing sector later in the year.

Our commercial strategy is a balance between growing volume and pricing initiatives. For 2025, we anticipate strong double digit increase in volumes in our aggregates business benefiting from Stavola. With respect to aggregates pricing, we expect mid single digit price increases in 2025. As we start the year, we are very well set up given last year’s pricing actions and we expect additional pricing opportunities during 2025. For the full year, we expect significant adjusted EBITDA growth in the construction segment seen from Savola and high single digit organic growth.

Margin expansion will be led by the accretive impact of Savola as well as solid organic contribution from higher unit profitability. Cold and wet weather has impacted operations in January and February, not unusual in our seasonally lowest quarter, but creating a slow start to the year. As a result, year over year growth for this segment is more weighted towards the second and third quarters. Moving to Engineered Structures, grid hardening initiatives, increased electrification, data center growth and connecting renewable energy to the grid continue to drive healthy demand. Road infrastructure spending continues to support our traffic structures business and a return to more normalized carrier spending should positively impact our telecom business.

With a more favorable customer mix in the backlog and the accretive impact of Ameron, we expect double digit adjusted EBITDA growth and solid margin expansion for our utility structures and related businesses. For wind towers, our backlog supports another year of significant growth driven by the production ramp up in the New Mexico facility. Our guidance assumes we sell twenty twenty five A and P tax rates at a small discount, which is slightly diluted to the segment margin, but will accelerate our deleveraging. We continue to discussions with our customers about additional orders for wind towers in 2026 and beyond. We remain confident that further investment in wind energy is needed to meet the load growth demand in The U.

S. As we have discussed in the past, this is not a business that receives orders every quarter. Our customers have historically placed large multi year multi plant orders with us when they have good visibility on projects. Therefore, we expect that as the year goes by and the regulatory environment impacting the wind industry becomes more clear, we will be able to have constructive conversations with our customers. What’s important to remember is that the current backlog provides good visibility for 2025, so we have time for the regulatory environment to settle down.

Last in Transportation Products, the inland river barge fleet has experienced underinvestment over the past several years. As a result, the fleet is aging, creating pent up replacement needs. Our current backlog of $280,000,000 at the end of the year has us well positioned for 2025. On hopper barges, we have backlogged through the third quarter. On tank barges, we are sold out for 2025 and with some additional lawless books since the end of the quarter, at the current production rate, our delivery time for a new tank barge order goes deep into 2026.

It is important to mention that customer inquiries continue to be strong, especially for tank barges. With steel tariffs as a possibility on the horizon, the message we’re giving our customers is that steel prices will probably go up, so continuing to wait to replace an aging fleet will get more expensive over time. For our barge business, we expect adjusted EBITDA will be more adjusted EBITDA growth will be more half weighted as we go through some product mix headwinds in the first part of the year. In closing, even though there is some short term regulatory uncertainty, we believe our cost is well positioned for continued growth and I’m excited about what we’re seeing for 2025 and beyond. I want to thank all our employees and tell them how proud I am of what they accomplished in 2024.

We’re now ready to answer your questions.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: We’ll take our first question from Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Ian Zaffino, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Hi, great. Thank you very much and thanks for all the color. Appreciate that.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Good morning, Ed.

Ian Zaffino, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Question on steel components. How much did the decline in steel prices impact revenues? And then maybe help us understand the volume decline. What drove that?

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Good morning, Ian. This is Gail. And I’m assuming you’re referring to the steel related impacts on our Engineered Structures segment as it relates to revenue?

Ian Zaffino, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Yes. Yes. I mean steel in engine yes, sorry about that.

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Sure, sure. I would say yes, we did for the full year and really that came in the fourth quarter, we did miss our revenue guidance at the we’re about $25,000,000 below the midpoint. And I would attribute that mostly to the engineered structures and I would attribute that mostly to the steel. We did see a little bit of revenue miss in construction, maybe to the $2,500,000 or so, as volumes were impacted by a little bit by weather. But predominantly the revenue miss was on the steel price side.

I would say not quite a 10% decline year over year for transmission revenues, but I would certainly say high single digits impact for steel prices. And we had a little bit of slowness around the border at year end, no surprise there that impacted revenue, but I would attribute it to the steel price.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: And yes, I’ll just give a little more color. The structures we build, they range from very small distribution pool to very, very large transmission towers. And when you measure volume, it’s hard to compare a small tower to a big tower. So, sometimes you will see this volatility in volumes as the production mix changes. And there is also not only size but the complexity of each one.

So, it’s normal to have some volatility on the volume side.

Ian Zaffino, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Okay. And just to be clear, that decline in steel prices is pretty much 100% pass through. So there’s really no profit impact. And then I guess if I was just add another question, I’m just on general and steel. Are you seeing any type of like pre buy activity, maybe concern that steel prices might go up and then maybe they could lock in now or build something now at a lower steel price?

Thanks.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: I’ll give you yes, so when depending on the business, we have two types of businesses on steel. One where we have a full pass through with some delayed, so the transmission industry is one of them where we have pricing agreements and if the price remains in a relatively in a relatively, let’s say, closed band there’s no adjustment. But once the price moves, you pass it through down or up. So what you saw when price goes down, you will see our margin increase because it’s basically a pass through. And that’s what you saw in the fourth quarter.

On the Priva, there’s other businesses like barge and wind where we have specific pricing agreements with the steel mills for specific products and then there’s no volatility on steel prices. That’s both barge and wind is work like that. On the pre buy, we have seen additional, let’s say, demand for specifically for barges. I mentioned in my comments that we sold some additional barges tank barges and now our delivery time is deep into 2026 and that comes from some people saying well this still might go up, let me take my orders right now. But it’s not something that we expect to continue because it’s not easy to get fixed prices right now with all the expectations of still going up.

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Okay. Thank you very much for the color.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Your line is now open.

Ethan, Analyst, Stephens: Hey, good morning, everyone. This is Ethan on for Trey. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to elaborate quickly on the wind outlook. What are you hearing from customers?

Curious on how the current administration has impacted customer sentiment? And we know previously you pointed to 2026 as being the year where wind kind of really picks up. I’m just curious if that’s still the case.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: What we’re hearing from customers is that the demand for renewables specifically for wind is still there. I would say that the sentiment continues to be very optimistic. And the reason behind it is the load growth in The U. S, the demand for energy in The U. S.

Is growing. And the debate can be whether data centers will contribute 2% or 10% in five years or in ten years. That’s a little irrelevant. What’s important, any growth will significantly increase the need for power. And if you order a gas turbine right now, you’re in 2,030 receiving it if you’re not in the queue already.

So the need for wind is there. I think we just need some additional clarity. And if you think about what’s happening, if you look at the total wind installations in 2025, ’20 ’20 ’6, I think what we are seeing from customers is that they expect a relatively flat year in 2026. And what we’ve mentioned is though when the growth comes, we should receive orders for additional growth in probably we expected it initially at the end of this year. Let’s see where the regulatory environment ends.

But I think we have the backlog to support our production this year. We have backlog in another facility that supports it for several years. So, I think we’re in a good shape to wait and see where the regulatory environment ends up. What’s important is the demand is there for wind and we have the backlog to stay focused this year and generate strong growth.

Ethan, Analyst, Stephens: Okay. Awesome. Yes, that’s really encouraging. And then secondly, just switching gears to Construction Products. Just curious on your outlook.

You gave some good end market commentary, and the mid single digits on pricing was really helpful. Just curious on how you’re thinking about unit profitability in 2025 and how that might compare to 2024? And similarly, within the guidance you mentioned, a certain portion being tied of the implied EBITDA increase within the 2025 guidance, a certain portion of that to be tied to organic growth. So just wondering which segments you’re thinking about that, that might be most heavily concentrated towards? Thanks.

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Good morning. This is Gail. I’ll take that. Yes, as we think about 25% and we said in our comments, overall, we’re looking at 30% EBITDA growth at the midpoint, outpacing the teens revenue growth. So strong margin growth expected for 2025 in total.

And we did say that that growth was split 40% organic and 60% inorganic. And that inorganic pieces is primarily Stivola. We do benefit from another quarter of Amaron that we didn’t have last year, but that’s primarily Stivola. And so to your question on the 40% organic side, we see about 15% of that growth coming from the Construction Products segment. So as Antonio said in his script, about high single digit organic growth for the Construction segment, We said mid single digit on price, so we’re expecting to price ahead of inflation and so we expect unit profitability gains on an organic basis within Construction Products.

The other big slice of that organic growth is going to be coming from the Engineered Structures segment. I’d say about 20% of the overall growth is coming from Engineered Structures. Again, I think we gave some pretty good commentary in the script. We expect double digit adjusted EBITDA growth in Utility Structures and significant growth within Wind Tower when you heard Antonio just saying based on the strong visibility that we have in that business for 2025. And then the last piece of the organic growth will come from the barge business.

That’s our remaining business within the Transportation Products segment and that’s about 5% of the overall growth for the company.

Ethan, Analyst, Stephens: Got it. That’s super helpful. Thank you so much for the color. I’ll pass it on.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Gerrick Schmois with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Gerrick Schmois, Analyst, Loop Capital Markets: Hi, thank you. Just wanted to follow-up on Construction Products. I was hoping you could provide some more color on what you’re expecting for volumes, recognizing you’re coming off of a softer year in 2024. You’ve had some weather delays both in the fourth quarter and in the start of this year. Just wondering how you’re thinking more on an organic basis, how you expect construction products and specifically aggregates demand to progress this year?

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Yes, I’ll take that. Good morning, Garrick. We

Justin, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: as

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: we said in the script, we see strong double digit growth on a total basis for volumes within construction. I’d say from an organic basis, not too dissimilar from some of our larger peers, kind of flattish to maybe slightly up on an organic basis from a volume perspective in 2025. And as it relates to the quarter, for the fourth quarter where we exited the year, we did have some heavy rainfall days. I wouldn’t say the weather was a complete deterrent for the quarter by any means, but we did have some in the Dallas area, along the coast, in the Tennessee area, we had some heavy rainfall days, not only the number of days, but the quantity of rain we had. So that did impact volumes in the fourth quarter.

So on an organic basis, we did see volumes exiting the year down on a year over year basis.

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Okay. That’s

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: helpful. Maybe just to add one more point that shouldn’t be lost because I know you’ve listened to a lot of materials calls by now. January and February were a little weak from just purely cold and wet weather. So we’re not it’s not unusual in the first quarter, but a little bit of a slower start with some of the weather here in January and February. But that’s basically the flattish to slightly up organic volume outlook for the year.

Gerrick Schmois, Analyst, Loop Capital Markets: Yes. And that message has certainly been conveyed by others. I wanted to follow-up just on CapEx. So it looks like it’s taking a step down this year. Just wanted to confirm that to $145,000,000 to $165,000,000 And then also, I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about some projects that you wrapped up in 2024, you expect them to contribute in 2025.

Just wondering if you could go into a little bit more detail around those projects and the level of earnings contribution or accretion you expect this year from the capital projects that were completed last year?

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: I’ll take that. So let me starting with the CapEx. Yes, we’re stepping down. As we mentioned, since we bought Stavola, we’re focusing on delivering. So, what we’re cutting is not maintenance CapEx, it’s the growth CapEx.

We do have some growth CapEx, but it’s really to finish projects that we have underway and a few small things. And when we bought Sabolo, we said we felt very good about increasing our leverage at that time because we were finishing all these organic projects that were going to help us in 2026. And in my remarks I mentioned we expect growth from four different areas. We expect growth from our growth businesses, engineering structures and construction, growth from our cyclical businesses because of the backlog, wind and barge. We expect the growth from this organic projects that we built last few years and they should start contributing.

And finally, the acquisitions. On the organic projects, I also mentioned in my prepared remarks, the concrete pulp factory we built in Florida And that’s it that product has margin similar to our the rest of the portfolio. So it’s the margin probably will be relatively flat to the business, but it will be but it will be increase the EBITDA for the segment. The wind tower plant that’s ramping up, as mentioned Gail in her remarks, is being accretive to the segment. So as we ramp up the plant in New Mexico, that should help us increase the margin in Engineered Structures.

We mentioned a few other small projects. We ramped up a small plant in aggregate that has similar margins than the rest of the business and a few small the plaster plant that was going to be now fully operational is doing very well in Oklahoma. The margins on that one is a little lower than the segment margin, but it’s very, very accretive to Specialty Materials. And finally, the small recycled aggregates plants that we started last year are also accretive to margins. So I think it’s a good mix of a lot of projects that we invested over the last couple of years.

And now it’s time to prove that they were good and start getting the returns while we deliver.

Gerrick Schmois, Analyst, Loop Capital Markets: Sounds good. I appreciate all the color. Nice quarter and best of luck.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Thank you.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Julio Romero with Sidoti and Company. Your line is now open.

Justin, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Good morning. This is Justin on for Julio. Thank you for taking questions.

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Good morning.

Justin, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: So on Stivola, you mentioned the seasonality impact on Stivola performance expected. So I guess, do you expect the organic recycled aggregate facilities to help offset this seasonality? And how might these facilities contribute to overall performance in the first half of twenty twenty five?

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Well, the recycle facilities we have are they if the recycle facilities are in the Northeast, they will have similar seasonality as natural aggregates. So, it’s what happens is that the weather really shut down construction and that’s where the seasonality comes from. So, no, I don’t expect our recycled facilities to offset Stavola. They would have similar seasonality in the region.

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: And maybe just to add on to that, we did say in the prepared remarks that we do expect a 200 basis point headwind from STABOLA in the first quarter as they are essentially a breakeven operation, contributing some revenue, but a breakeven operation in the first quarter.

Justin, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Great. Thanks for the color there. And then on guidance, we saw the updated depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense guide of $230,000,000 to $235,000,000 is meaningfully higher than our expectations. So how much of this increase is directly attributable to Stivala? And how should we consider this as the normal run rate when modeling for 2026 and beyond?

Gail Peck, CFO, Arcosa: Yes. That’s a good question. That’s why we wanted to be very clear on our expectations because there is a change there. And I would attribute that really predominantly to the step up related to STABOLA. And you saw that in the fourth quarter as well of 2024 with a 50% increase in that expense line item.

And that really is the write up in the fixed assets, most notably, their reserves and that is what drives our depletion expense. So I would consider that a fairly normalized, run rate on a go forward basis.

Justin, Analyst, Sidoti and Company: Great. Thank you. That’s all for me.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Jean Belize with D. A. Davidson. Your line is now open.

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Hi. Thank you so much for the time. Regarding barge, could you talk about what kind of feedback you’re receiving from customers when you let them know about the possibility of steel prices and therefore the barge prices to go up? I

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: would very different circumstances in tank and in hopper barges. Let me start with hopper. I think hopper is more sensitive to price and I think people are still thinking that prices are coming down. So they they’re a little more, let’s say, concerned about steel price increases. On the tank barge side, when you look at the customer mix, for two things, on the tank barge there’s a lot more regulation involved on their certification by Coast Guard etcetera.

So, they have less flexibility on how much they can let the barges age and the quality of the barges and the state of the barge that they are operating. So, they have less options. Of course, there’s always a concern about steel prices, but I think a lot of customers what they’re watching now, especially on the tank barge side, when you look at the amount of barges that need to be replaced over the next five years, both hoppers and tank, and you look at the production capacity that the industry players, the barge manufacturers have right now, if they don’t start ordering a lot of barges right now, it’s going to be a problem getting the capacity up. And

Gerrick Schmois, Analyst, Loop Capital Markets: when

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: I talk to customers, I sense concern about whether there’s going to be capacity to supply all these barges that need to be replaced. So, I think that’s what you’re seeing in our barge backlog that some people are trying to anticipate that. I think the hopper people are not have not taken that step, but at some point when you look at the amount of barges that need to be replaced, there’s a limit of how much you can wait. So, as I mentioned in my remarks, waiting to see if steel prices come down, especially with the tariff threat right now, it’s not a very wise option, but of course, I don’t buy barges. So.

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Thank you. And pivoting to the construction products, could you provide a little more color for the sort of growth you see in specialty materials relative to your natural and recycle aggregates

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: operations? Yes. So, in Specialty Materials, I would say that the demand is a little more weighted towards infrastructure on the lightweight aggregates. It’s a lot more infrastructure driven than our natural aggregates. We have a higher mix of infrastructure projects.

On the specialty materials side, I mentioned we started we finished our plaster plant, which is mainly geared toward multifamily housing and it’s doing very, very well. We have the plant is basically at full capacity, running very well with very good margins, meeting the expectations we had when we invested the money to expand it. So overall, we expect solid growth in our Specialty Materials coming from that expansion and the other products they have. And specialty materials, I think as I said, it’s more focused over infrastructure. So we’re very bullish on infrastructure spending in The U.

S, so it should do very well. All right. And if

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: I could squeeze one more. Within engineered structures, and I apologize if you already went over this, but can you talk about why utility and related structure volumes were lower in the fourth quarter?

Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO, Arcosa: Yes. I mentioned a couple of things. And Kael mentioned from the sales side or on the revenue side was mostly steel. There were some issues at the end of the year in the border, which slowed our production a little bit. But I also mentioned that the production mix, the product mix that we go through, we make very small poles and very large poles, very simple and very complex.

And it’s not abnormal to see volatility in the volume because of the size and the complexity of the poles. So there was nothing special that happened. It’s just I think it’s normal volatility based on product mix.

Jean Belize, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: I appreciate the comment. Thank you so much for the time. I’ll pass in.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue. I’ll turn the program back over to Erin Dravet for closing remarks.

Erin Drabek, Vice President of Investor Relations, Arcosa: Thank you for joining Archosys this morning for our fourth quarter and full year update, and we look forward to providing you another update in our first quarter call.

Ian Zaffino, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Thank you.

Britney, Conference Call Coordinator: Thank you. This does conclude today’s program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.