Earnings call transcript: Australian Strategic Materials focuses on expansion in Q1 2025

Australian Strategic Materials Limited (ASM) outlined its strategic focus on expanding production capabilities and enhancing its market position during its Q1 2025 earnings call. With a market capitalization of $335.4 million and impressive year-to-date returns of 172%, the company emphasized its investments and future growth plans in the rare earths sector. According to InvestingPro data, ASM’s stock has demonstrated strong momentum, with a remarkable 224% return over the past year. The company’s overall financial health score is rated as "GREAT," suggesting solid fundamentals despite current market challenges.

Key Takeaways

• ASM has invested $60 million in its Korean metals facility.
• The company plans to deliver its first commercial dysprosium and terbium metals in H2 2024.
• ASM is exploring additional capacity expansion in the U.S. with a planned 2,000 tonne/annum facility.
• The company is uniquely positioned as the only ASX-listed entity with established metals capabilities.

Company Performance

ASM is strategically positioning itself in the rare earths market, focusing on expanding its production capabilities. With a healthy gross profit margin of 37% and a strong current ratio of 2.62, the company has completed a significant order for Magnequench and is validating products across multiple regions, including Korea, the U.S., Europe, and Canada. ASM’s efforts are aligned with the anticipated global production deficit in rare earths starting in 2024, driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and defense. For deeper insights into ASM’s financial health and growth potential, investors can access comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro, which offers exclusive ProTips and detailed metrics for informed decision-making.

Financial Highlights

• Investment in Korean metals facility: $60 million
• Installed capacity at Korean plant: 1,300 tonnes per annum
• Planned U.S. metals plant capacity: 2,000 tonnes per annum, expandable to 4,000 tonnes

Outlook & Guidance

ASM is targeting the selection of a U.S. metals plant site in H2 2024 and aims to commence construction on its Dubbo project in 2027. The company is also seeking equity funding from sovereign funds to support these initiatives. ASM anticipates the first commercial production of dysprosium in 2024, positioning itself to meet increasing demand for rare earths.

Executive Commentary

CEO Rowena Smith highlighted ASM’s unique position in the market, stating, "ASM is the only ASX-listed company that has established capability in that metals, alloys, and powders part of that supply chain." She added, "We are seeing the desire to establish a strong alternative supply chain being stronger than we’ve ever seen it." These statements underscore ASM’s strategic focus on becoming a key player in the global supply chain for rare earths.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply Chain Concentration: With 90% of the supply chain concentrated in China, ASM faces geopolitical risks.
• Market Volatility: Fluctuations in rare earth prices could impact profitability.
• Execution Risks: Delays in project timelines could affect ASM’s growth trajectory.
• Funding Challenges: Securing necessary equity funding from sovereign funds remains critical for future projects.

ASM’s strategic initiatives and market positioning reflect its commitment to capitalizing on the growing demand for rare earths, despite the inherent risks and challenges in the sector.

Full transcript - Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASM) Q3 2025:

Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Australian Strategic Materials Limited Company Update. I would now like to hand the conference over to Rowena Smith, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.

Rowena Smith, Managing Director and CEO, Australian Strategic Materials Limited: Thanks very much, Darcy, and welcome to everyone joining us on the call this morning. Today, I’ll be taking you through the investor presentation that we released to the ASX last week following the release of our March quarterly report. Since the beginning of the calendar year, we’ve witnessed considerable global activity in the rare earth and critical minerals sector. And some of this activity has created uncertainty and volatility. But at the same time, we also see significant opportunity.

And ASM is very well positioned to leverage those opportunities. And that is what I’d like to focus on today. So ASM, we’re building a global rare earths and critical minerals business to provide the high-tech metals that are needed for the emerging advanced technologies. And what I want to take us through today is first of all, just a bit of an overview of what’s happening in the international market dynamics that I think really supports ASM’s Mind to Metal strategy. I then want to give an update on the metals plant in Korea that we’ve already established, which we really see as a blueprint for growth.

And how that is now playing out in our thinking around a case for a US metals plant as a strategic expansion of that metallization capability. We’ll give you an update on where we’re at with our Dubbo project, a key project here in Australia, which is a global project that we see as being very much in the national interest. And then I will finish up by just giving a bit of a view on what we see as the outlook as we go forward to deliver this secure sustainable supply chain for rare earths and critical minerals. So ASM, we have a mine to metal strategy. We have two key areas that we’re focused on when we’re looking for development of our assets.

The first is a mine in Dubbo in New South Wales, which is advanced. But when it’s in operation, we will mine, separate, and refine a suite of critical minerals products all the way through to high purity oxides in that location. We will then take those through to one of our global metals plants, the first of which we’ve already established in Korea. But we now have well advanced our planning for replicating that facility in The US. And what we are focused on there is metalizing the rare earths, the light rare earths, the heavy rare earths, and also producing those specialist alloys that are the major constituent for the high performance magnets that are an essential component in so many of the advanced manufacturing technologies with defense applications and with direct applications into the emerging clean technologies.

I just want to focus firstly on what’s happening in the global market because what we see for rare earths specifically is a very strong demand story. In recent years, we have been seeing growth in demand for these materials. But we’ve seen to date production really being able to keep pace with that increasing demand. So it’s remained relatively imbalanced. But what the forecasts are showing as we’re going forward is that that demand is going to continue to step up at a significant rate.

And the production is not going to be able to maintain that growth. So we see pretty much from this year, we’re starting to see a global deficit, for that production to meet that increasing demand. And I think importantly, when you look at the slides on the right, you can also see that demand is coming from multiple sources, which I think is also a really important story to understand. Yes, there’s predicted growth in electric vehicles, but that is only a quarter of what we’re anticipating we will see demand to be in 02/1940 for these materials. We’re also seeing significant growth in robotics, in a number of other applications for defense, as well as across the suite of those uses in the technologies that are listed there.

So in addition to there being a very strong demand story, there’s also clearly a very interesting supply story for these materials. The supply chain currently really is dominated by one jurisdiction, and that is China. While 60% of the raw materials are being mined by China, what you can see is that as it then goes forward in order to be separated and refined into oxides, then metallized and alloyed and then manufactured into magnets, you see that that supply chain really gets squeezed with over 90% of the production capability residing in China through all of that mid processing part of that supply chain. And while a significant amount of the magnets that are manufactured are then used in domestic manufacturing within China. So only a small portion of it is exported.

Nonetheless, the size of the export market from China in 2024 was just under $3,000,000,000 US, and obviously anticipated to grow substantially over the next ten years. So I think the recent news of China restricting export of those magnets and those key alloys is very significant. That’s an immediate impact on that nearly $3,000,000,000 market. And the market is definitely grappling at the moment as to where the immediate alternate sources are. And I think that this process of confronting the reality of the disruption in that supply chain is really motivating people to think about what do I need to do now to establish diversity in this supply chain.

China, in response to The US tariffs, announced that they were going to restrict the rare earths that are listed there. That’s a suite of seven heavy rare earths, as well as that specialist alloy, the Indi FEB alloy, that is that major constituent for magnets. And what you can see there on the table on the right is all seven of those rare earths are found in the Dubbo resource. All of those products we will be producing from Dubbo. And importantly, today with the facility that we have in Korea, alloy is a product that we produce there currently, as well as we’re working on the metallization capability for the terbium and the dysprosium metals.

So very directly relevant to our projects, these restrictions. And this isn’t a surprise that China would potentially restrict the export of these materials. This is something that has been anticipated and indeed is the primary driver for ASM’s strategy to develop this alternative end to end supply chain. I think the challenge to date has been, whilst it’s been known, it hasn’t been felt. And so there’s been a hesitancy globally to act.

And what we’re really quite excited about at the moment is that what we are witnessing is that now that this is an immediate impact, it’s really motivating people to move to action. And that is in Australia, but we’re seeing it in The States and we’re seeing it in Asia, in Korea, in Japan. We’re seeing it in Europe. And interestingly, we’re also seeing a lot of activity in The Middle East. And they’re coming to talk to us because we are very uniquely positioned to be part of that solution.

The strategy that we have from Mind to Metal is quite unique. ASM is the only ASX listed company that has established capability in that metals, alloys, and powders part of that supply chain, and the only one who is able to provide immediately into that gap that has been created with this disruption on those alloys from China. So I think that leads us nicely into giving an update on where we’re at with the Korean metals facility. We’re very proud of this facility in Korea. It’s located in the foreign investment zone in Ochong, South Of Seoul.

And what we have established here is a facility with an installed capacity of 1,300 tonne per annum of that ND FEB alloy. The installed equipment is one strip caster, which has three furnaces feeding it currently. And we have invested about $60,000,000 U. S. To date, both through CapEx and working capital as we’ve been going through these early establishment years.

Our current product suite that we’re delivering to customers are a combination of neodymium and prasidinium metals, which are the light rare earth metals, as well as that alloy. But what you can see is that we’ve got plans for expansion. First of all, we’ve got a phase two ramp up to take that installed capacity from 1,300 tonne per annum through to its design capacity of 3,600 ton per annum. And it’s not a significant additional investment in CapEx, only an additional $8,000,000 US to take us through to that full design capacity. The lead time is for some of the long lead equipment, particularly the strip caster, which is what that eighteen months timeline is.

But the commissioning will be relatively straightforward for us because it is a replication of units that we already have and have already established capability in. We will commit to that ramp up in alignment to the customer demand ramp up for that facility. The other area of expansion that we’re very focused on at the moment is increasing the product suite. We’ve advised the market previously. We’re working on taking our own proprietary technology that we have developed for the metallization of terbium and dysprosium, those heavy rare earth metals.

We are taking that through to commercial scale this year. And we are anticipating that we will in the second half be ready to be delivering our first commercial products for the dysprosium and termium metal to the market, which is very timely given the level of interest that there is globally in this capability, which is extremely unique. I’m only aware of two other producers at the moment globally outside of China who have the capability to be able to make those metals in their pure form. The Korean metals plant financials, we have provided an update here so that the market can see what this facility looks like when it is at that design capacity for the 3,600 tonne per annum. This is based on all of the experience we have now over the last particularly twelve months in the product validation and the commercial discussions that we’re having with the established and emerging Western magnet producers.

So we’ve got much more confidence around the pricing assumptions that are flowing into this model. And we’re still feeling very confident around both the revenue and the EBITDA for this facility. And as I said earlier, the timeline for this is we’re continuing to talk with those magnet producers this year with then moving through that phase two expansion next year for then being at the 3,600 tonne per annum potentially from ’27, assuming that the customer demand supports those commitments. We do see this facility in Korea as a blueprint for growth. We have worked hard over the period since we delivered our first commercial production here in ’twenty two to produce the neodymium prasidinium metal and alloy for a growing domestic and international customer base.

And we’ve been going through quite a involved process of validating our products with a very broad suite of customers in Korea, in The US, in Europe, and more recently in Canada. We have been delivering metal products to Korean magnet producers like NS World and KCM for some time. We did announce our first alloy customers would be Noveon Magnetics and USA Rare Earths, which are two emerging magnet producers based in The US. And those relationships continue to be strong as they are progressing their commissioning. And we will continue to work with them to support their supply needs as they begin to ramp up.

But we’ve also been working more recently with KMI, another emerging Korean magnet producer for alloy. And Magnequench, which is a part of the NEO group that have from late last year taken an order of the NDPR metal from us. We’ve just completed the first nineteen tonne order for them. And we’re well progressed in discussions with them for follow-up orders. And they’re particularly interested not just in our light rare earth metal, but very interested in our heavy rare earth metal capability.

And then even more recently, we have sent a sample or in the process of preparing a sample for GKN, which is again another very significant user of these magnets for their manufacturing goods. So that’s a snapshot of some of the customers that we’re working with that are in public domain. There are a number of others that we are working with that aren’t yet able to be spoken about publicly. But what we’re seeing in those discussions is, particularly in the last few weeks with the volatility that we’re seeing in the market, we’re seeing a lot more engagement from them, which is in response to the fact that they have had significant engagement from their OEMs and their customers in recent weeks about establishing an alternative to the existing supply chain in order to manage this supply chain risk that is very present and felt at the moment. And what we also are seeing is a lot of interest in whether or not we can replicate this capability in their jurisdictions.

So that I think leads nicely into some of the thinking that we’ve been doing around The US strategic expansion. I think, yeah, I’m just literally just got back on the weekend from another week in DC. And so, you know, these conversations that we are having in The US with government departments and with customers and with investors is very live. But what you can see there on that slide is the photo that was taken in October 23 at the Critical Minerals Roundtable that I participated in as part of the Prime Minister’s state visit back in ’twenty three. There has been significant activity both in government to government between since that time, but also we’ve been extremely active in our discussions in The US since that time to build to a point where we have now got quite advanced thinking about our US strategic expansion.

One of the things when we were considering where we would potentially replicate the Korean metals facility, because we have considered this across a number of jurisdictions. But when we were looking at that, The US came out very strongly early as being a very favourable jurisdiction for the non cost sort of components of that decision tree. And you can see that there quite simply in that ranking. South Korea was a very strong jurisdiction. US is stronger again.

The area that we’ve really been trying to establish confidence in is whether or not from a cost perspective, this was the right jurisdiction for us to be investing in. And so that’s what’s been so exciting about some of this development over the last twelve months. And it’s got even stronger momentum now with the Trump administration coming in. We’re seeing, you know, a lot of activity. And whilst, you know, I referenced before there’s a lot of volatility at the moment, a lot of uncertainty globally as the Trump administration’s new policies are coming through.

And there’s not a lot of clarity yet about where they will all be landing. There are two themes that are very strong that are very consistent that we’re quite excited about. One is there is a very strong theme about establishing a manufacturing capability that Made in America mandate. From the Trump administration, they are very committed to ensuring that US manufacturing is going to grow through the coming decade and creating policy that’s going to enable that. And the other very strong theme is that they are determined that there will be alternative supply chains, independent supply chains, particularly for critical minerals and rare earths to be able to support that manufacturing industry.

And so we’re seeing that in numerous pieces of policy. And certainly when I was there again last week, just an enormous amount of excitement and activity in the various different government departments as many of them are still waiting for their senior roles to be appointed. They’re still working through getting clarity on their budget and their mandate. But all of them preparing to be extremely active. And there was a very strong theme about the need to deliver results and that they want to be seen to be doing deals and being active in creating this supply chain.

So we’ve been talking for some period of time, first of all, with the Export Import Bank of the United States, but also with the US Department of Defense. And when I was in DC in February, we confirmed and submitted our paper seeking CapEx funding for a US plant. So that is currently being considered by the US Department of Defense. One of the reasons why we’re particularly interested in The US other than the amount of support there is in the ecosystem and in the funding is because the states themselves are extremely active in competing for creating these supportive business environments with state based grants and incentives. So in addition to the 45X tax credit that will support this metals facility if it’s in The States, we’re also we’ve been talking since well, over the last twelve months, we attended the SelectUSA Conference, which is a conference run by the Department of Commerce there in The States that really introduces businesses like ours to The States and helps as a concierge service to be able to see what the various states have to offer.

We’re now at a point where we’ve selected the top six states for location for this plant. We have received the responses on our RFI request of those six states. We’re just finalising selection of the top two states at the moment. And we will later this quarter be or perhaps July, perhaps it’s early next quarter, doing a visit to those top two states to then through the second half finalize the location for our preferred site for this US plant. But we can see the competitiveness of these submissions that we’ve received.

We’re feeling very confident about the ability to be able to replicate the capability that we have in Korea and have it be a very cost competitive source of metals to be able to support this emerging downstream manufacturing inclusive of our existing magnet customers, Noveon Magnetics and USA Rare Earths, but also broadening it out to others. And what we have also been doing is talking about sources of feed. The oxides obviously are critical for being able to support these metals plants, be it in Korea or in The US. And we really want to make sure that we have gotten on China sourced oxide to be able to go all the way through this supply chain. We have well advanced discussions with American, with US, with European, and with Canadian sources of oxides as third party materials for our metals facilities.

So we will continue with those and we will source materials from those prior to bringing on our own materials. But what we really do want is to be able to see the Dubbo feed coming in as a supplementary source to support growth as we go forward. So just on the American Metals Plant, this is just a bit of a summary of what we are looking at when we are assessing whether or not we will commit to this American Metals Plant. We’re obviously in discussion with the DoD for funding support. There are other also other domestic options that are emerging in the new policy for support from the US government as well for this facility.

But we’re targeting financials that are broadly aligned with the KNP target financials that I spoke about earlier. We’re thinking that we’ll initially start this at a 2,000 tonne per annum capacity with the design to readily expand that to 4,000 tonne per annum. And then obviously, it can continue to expand beyond that as demand dictates. When you look at the timing here, you know, I said before, we’re looking to select The US state for this facility this year. We will select that in the second half.

But really the timeline for then being able to finalise funding and move into construction is largely the permitting process. The Department of Defense funding requires you to go through what’s called the NEPA process in The States. And our research and advice that we’ve received is that for a facility of our kind, we would anticipate that would take twelve months. So we’re really wanting to be in a position where we’ve identified the site, we can kick off that permitting process by the end of this year, which then keeps us on track for being able to then complete that permitting process through ’twenty six and then commence construction in ’twenty seven. There’s obviously a lot of discussion in the moment in The States about potentially accelerating their permitting processes.

So we will continue to watch to see these timelines can look like. But these are our current assumptions. So our Dubbo project as a primary source of feed for growth of these metals facilities is the other area I want to provide an update on. We do see the Dubbo project as a very unique ore body because in addition to the light rare earth, the neodymium prosedinium, it has a very high proportion of these heavy rare earths. The terbium, the dysprosium, as well as that suite of others that we spoke about earlier.

But importantly, it also has zirconium, niobium, and hafnium. And they also are listed on the critical minerals list for Australia and The US and indeed in many other of the Western jurisdictions. It is a long life mine. We have a twenty year life of mine based on the reserves with substantial resource underpinning that that gives us the potential for further growth. It is in a tier one jurisdiction.

It is construction ready with all of the major approvals in place. And we have approvals substantial work over the last seventeen years

to prove up our flow sheet. And we have the IP to be able to progress with this project. We have got very strong ESG credentials. The Sustainalytics independent rating rates us in the top 10% of diversified metals and mining businesses for our comprehensive ESG program. You know, so we really are at the point with our project of really taking those strong financials and securing our funding and securing our offtake.

That’s where our focus is currently. So the last twelve months, we’ve been very pleased with the momentum that we have been able to have in our funding on the debt side of the stack. We have had over $1,500,000,000 of conditional ECA support in combination from the Export Import Bank in The US, as well as the Canadian Development Export Bank, as well as Export Finance Australia. And indeed, the Export Development Canada just issued us with a letter of extension for that letter of interest. The Export Import Bank is not in dated their letter, but they continue to be a very strong supporter of our project.

And indeed, one of the reasons why I was in DC last week is that I was invited to speak on a panel at their annual conference as they were really facilitating discussions internationally about how this alternate supply chain is going to be established. We are focused at the moment in our discussions with the Export Import Bank on finalising the other letter of interest that we got, which is for funding for the final bit of engineering to be able to finalise the Dubbo project prior to taking FEED. And those conversations are continuing to progress well. So the discussions around the debt, we’re feeling very confident about. The area that we’re really focused on at the moment is on securing the equity.

And one of the areas that we’re very active in is in discussing this with sovereign funds. We’ve got current discussions underway in Australia, in Korea, in Europe, and more recently, strong interest coming in from The Middle East. So those, know, again, I think the volatility that’s happening at the moment in the market is resulting in all of those jurisdictions, and I would argue, I would include Japan in this as well, really thinking very actively about what their alliances are going to be going forward with these supply chains. And I think all of them are more active than they were perhaps six to twelve months ago. We’ve also been talking with the United States Department of Defense for funding support on the equity side for Dubbo.

The DPA Title III in The US allows the Department of Defense to invest in Dubbo as a domestic source. So when you hear them talking about The US about the importance of domestic supply chains, Dubbo meets their definition of that. So we put two submissions in for grant support late last year from the US Department of Defense. And both of those submissions are currently in consideration. And one of the discussions that’s happening at the moment in DC is with the various different executive orders that have come through recently is increased funding to be able to fund those style of projects.

And they’re looking at increasing the capability of the team that’s managing that in order to be able to move through those more rapidly. So, you know, we’re feeling very encouraged by what we’re seeing there in DC around those Department of Defense opportunities. One of the things while we’ve been working on all of these different funding angles is that we’ve really been challenging ourselves on is there an alternate pathway for execution on Dubbo? Because until now, we’ve always been very committed to doing this in one step, doing the whole of the flow sheet with all of those various different products all coming through to market simultaneously. And about twelve months ago, we really started challenging ourselves on is there an opportunity to break this up, to do the execution in two phases, to build commission the rare earth part of the circuit first, and establish the light and heavy rare earth oxide supplies that can then go through to our metals plants in the first phase and then come back once we’ve got them established and revenue coming from that come back and invest in the second phase to be able to bring the zirconia, hafnia, and niobium online.

So this work is progressing well. We received a grant of $5,000,000 from the federal government here in Australia late last year to be able to progress this work. We’ve identified four potential options. They are looking at two different types of atmospheric leaching, a heap leach or a tank leach, and looking at that with two different acids, looking at it with hydrochloric acid and sulfuric acid. So we’ve identified those options.

We have done a series of drilling and sampling programs so that we’re doing this work on fresh core, but also a larger representation, of course, so that we can really get a good understanding of the variability of the response to leaching across the ore body. And what we’re progressing at the moment, we’re well into at the moment, is that variability leaching test work, as well as we have been working with DRA Global on doing the CapEx and OpEx estimates for those various options. We were anticipating that we will see the first pull up of all of this work in the mid year. We’re really just working hard at the moment on particularly making sure that we have optimized the heavy rare earth recoveries as we’re going through this leaching test work, because that’s obviously very important to the market and will make a big difference to the economics of this first phase. So that’s what we’re focused on at the moment.

And I anticipate that we’ll be giving an update to the market in the middle of the year. What we’re really looking for when we’re considering whether or not we think this will be viable, Obviously, the recoveries are important. But ultimately, what they lead into is, is the project going to be reduced capital and at a strong operating expenditure that will really support the economics of it in the first phase. And you know, what we’re striving for is to have a capital that is, you know, well below the $1,000,000,000 mark. And we are wanting to deliver an OpEx that’s in the bottom third, if not lower of the existing cost curve.

So that’s what we’re striving for. We anticipate that, as I said, that we’ll give an update to the market on that in the mid year. And assuming that all things go well to schedule, we would expect that we would see the Dubbo project engineering being complete. That work that we were talking about doing with Bechtel with The US Ex I’m funding, we would expect that to be complete in ’twenty six to allow us to be able to commence construction in ’twenty seven. So our outlook as we are going forward, we are seeing volatility at the moment.

And I’ve said this a number of times, with that volatility, we are seeing significant opportunity. The amount of inbound inquiry that we are getting from off takers, from investors in recent weeks is significant. We are seeing the desire to establish a strong alternative supply chain being stronger than we’ve ever seen it. And it’s very clear that ASM is recognised as being uniquely positioned to be part of that solution. We’re seeing growth across all of these sectors, the automotive, defence, magnets and semiconductors.

And we’re seeing it across all of those jurisdictions that I’ve been talking about. So really for us, you know, it’s a very exciting time as we are looking to establish ourselves at what we see as being a pivotal point in this industry. What I’m looking forward to over the next quarter is I’m anticipating going back to North America again in mid June to continue discussions we’re having with government as well as with some of the key customers that we’re talking to about partnership and with investors. We will, as I said before, we will select our top two sites in The States for our American metals plant and conduct the site visits. We’re going to be continuing the commercial discussions that are underway at the moment with the offtakers for the Korean metals plant.

And in particular, I am really looking forward to in the coming months being able to confirm our dysprosium commercial production. You know, we set ourselves a target of doing it this calendar year, but I’m certainly hopeful that we will see that in the coming months that we will be able to confirm our first commercial sale. So they’re the key things that we’re really focused on. But more broadly, ASM, we are a mined metals business building out that alternative global supply chain at a point in history where there has never been stronger interest or motivation for establishing that capability. We’re already in production of these high-tech metals and alloys, and we’re ready to scale globally.

We’ve got incredibly strong government support across multiple jurisdictions. Our Dubbo project is construction ready and we have got great momentum in the debt funding. And so we’re looking forward to what we can deliver in the coming months at this very unique point in time. So that concludes our presentation today. If there are any questions that you would like to follow-up with, then please do send them to infosm au dot com.

And I’d just like to thank everybody for joining us today. I look forward to providing further updates on our activities in the months to come. And I hope you enjoy your day. Have a safe one.

Conference Operator: That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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